ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Tireman4]

yep about time and close enough to not look at the models for Isaac anymore....suggest you watch in on Sat from here on out.....there was a wnw jog but hard to tell and could correct itself

Agreed Rock.....about time to let it ride out.

Agreed with both of you. Now we watch...

[Stormlover2012]

yeah it does seem like it made a west jogged but who knows how long that will last

[ROCK]

Wow...that is waaay east....HWRF still an interesting model though....GFS ens. are a bit east today as well. Shift has been a bit east today

wayyy east? come on now...

[petit_bois]

from 300 miles away... yea... just watch the sat.
At ground Zero 15 miles is a HUGE difference wobble here... wobble there.
east side/west side of eye. Models matter to us.

[Texashawk]

If its going to Mississippi, it needs to start to go north like, rightnow.

dude... NE with a jog NNE later tonight puts in on the MS coast.

While I think the LLC has been moving in a counterclockwise direction around the CDO, the general MLC has been moving generally 270-285 for the last 4-5 hours IMO. Look especially at the last few frames of the GIF, or look at Tampa 240 MI radar loop. I look at the system as a whole, not necessarily the LLC, simply because of the amount of reorg that has happened with this particular storm. Even though we have some of the best and most advanced computer models in the world, sometimes, at the end of the day, the ol Mark I eyeball is the best error check.

Just MHO.

[swbamacane]

Isnt the Euro coming out about now? Anyone have graphics??

[Ntxw]

Isnt the Euro coming out about now? Anyone have graphics??

Initialization

[PTPatrick]

12z gfdl is still pretty west. So GFS is in the middle of gfdl to the west and hwrf east.

[Ntxw]

Euro 24 hours.

[Ntxw]

Euro 48 hours.

[thatwhichisnt]

Euro still trending more east, as it has the past few days. I am with the gfs this storm.

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[Ntxw]

Another view of Euro at 48 hours. Probably a smidge west of 0z but hardly much. Overhead New Orleans instead of Gulfport/Biloxi

[Janie2006]

Actually, the Euro has been trending west over the last couple of days. This run, for instance, has landfall at what appears to be Bay St. Louis/the mouth of the Pearl River, wheras the last run had Isaac landfalling at Biloxi/Ocean Springs....which is a pretty small shift, really.

[deltadog03]

Looks like its crawling northward into MS

[Ntxw]

Actually, the Euro has been trending west over the last couple of days. This run, for instance, has landfall at what appears to be Bay St. Louis/the mouth of the Pearl River, wheras the last run had Isaac landfalling at Biloxi/Ocean Springs....which is a pretty small shift, really.

This is correct, the past 3 12z runs of the Euro landfalls have been Panama City, FL -> Mobile, AL, and now closer to New Orleans or La/Ms state line.

[TwisterFanatic]

Euro still trending more east, as it has the past few days. I am with the gfs this storm.

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West

[thatwhichisnt]

I mean east than all the other models. Sorry for the confusion

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[KWT]

Hmmm I wonder what the pressure is at 36hrs, its down at 977mbs overland, so you'd think it'd be around 970mbs at least at 36hrs around landfall.

[deltadog03]

I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall.

[Texashawk]

Now that the center is at basically 86W and 26.1N, is tucked under the CDO, and the system still appears to be heading W or WNW, it will be very interesting to see the next round of models.