ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think this is the best it has ever looked. If this is still 65 mph per recon, I will eat my hat.
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1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
Last edited by HurrMark on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Texashawk
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175200 2607N 08558W 8407 01390 //// +214 //// 131006 010 025 000 01
175230 2606N 08559W 8409 01387 //// +213 //// 336004 009 025 000 01
Possible center - without pressure info, harder to tell. Wind shift and wind speed indicate a possible center, but my concern holds: Just a hair north of 26 degrees - actually below the last center fix from the previous mission if accurate.
Edit: Center confirmed. Thanks mark! Concern still valid, however; even more so now.
175230 2606N 08559W 8409 01387 //// +213 //// 336004 009 025 000 01
Possible center - without pressure info, harder to tell. Wind shift and wind speed indicate a possible center, but my concern holds: Just a hair north of 26 degrees - actually below the last center fix from the previous mission if accurate.
Edit: Center confirmed. Thanks mark! Concern still valid, however; even more so now.

Last edited by Texashawk on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?
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Re:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
Just same ol same ol update with no change in strength, but then again,
but what's new...It's Isaac afterall...

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Recon showing the systems center has been tugged westwards, center has moved under the deeper convection.
I suspect that is a major reason why we are starting to see pressure dropping. Whether or not this is shear easing or simply the wind shear changing direction, we need to see. I wonder what recon will find in the NE quadrant?
I suspect that is a major reason why we are starting to see pressure dropping. Whether or not this is shear easing or simply the wind shear changing direction, we need to see. I wonder what recon will find in the NE quadrant?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: Re:
GCRain wrote:HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?
Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it.

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Re:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
I suspect so, the only issue is the lack of convection on the NE quad which is where the big money in terms of winds will be, and since its lacking in that compartment, it may struggle to reflect the max wind speeds that the pressure should suggest.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
frederic79 wrote:A sampling of buoys yesterday showed an average water temp of about 85 degrees, more than enough for a strong hurricane. When Georges transversed the Gulf in 1998, it was LATE September and water temps were around 81-82 degrees tops. It still made landfall as a high-end category 2 storm, around 105-110 sustained. So water temps aren't the issue here.
Also, does it seem like Isaac has slowed some or still trucking? Just wondering if I am seeing things...
Exactly - In the 10AM Forecast Discussion, NHC mentioned that it is partially due to the size of the wind radii, not SSTs.
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Re: Re:
Texashawk wrote:GCRain wrote:HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?
Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it.
Now is this west movement something that will happen for a little longer?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.
From what I know, we had Sean last year with 982 and Delta in 2005 with 980 millibars. I don't think those were the lowest ever though.
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I think 984mbs is indeed very low for a TS, I can't imagine this not being a hurricane for much longer, surely its going to become a hurricane within the next 6hrs.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Last edited by BigEasy on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:
wxwatcher1999 wrote:Texashawk wrote:
Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it.
Now is this west movement something that will happen for a little longer?
It's stair-stepping: straight west then straight north, etc. They will smooth out the path based on multiple fixes and most likely come up with NW again.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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And will this west movement affect the landfall location?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
Even more on the short term
Last AF vortex was 987 at 1440
This pass was almost exactly 3 hrs later
so 1mb/hr...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
HurrMark wrote:I think this is the best it has ever looked. If this is still 65 mph per recon, I will eat my hat.
How's that hat taste.

According to latest update, but I just 70mph per recon.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
This is the best looking Hurri.....I mean tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Also, I think for some reason that they are wrong by at least 10 mph about this storm. I know shear can tear a storm apart but it's not as if this storm looks bad I have seen Hurricanes of 80 or 90 mph look worse than this. Not to mention this thing has dropped a huge amount of pressure amounts with no mph wind change.
Of course this is not an official forecast just a guy from Carolina who has seen and been in his share of storms.
Of course this is not an official forecast just a guy from Carolina who has seen and been in his share of storms.
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