ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6161 Postby HurrMark » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:02 pm

I think this is the best it has ever looked. If this is still 65 mph per recon, I will eat my hat.
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#6162 Postby HurrMark » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:02 pm

1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.
Last edited by HurrMark on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6163 Postby Texashawk » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:03 pm

175200 2607N 08558W 8407 01390 //// +214 //// 131006 010 025 000 01
175230 2606N 08559W 8409 01387 //// +213 //// 336004 009 025 000 01

Possible center - without pressure info, harder to tell. Wind shift and wind speed indicate a possible center, but my concern holds: Just a hair north of 26 degrees - actually below the last center fix from the previous mission if accurate.

Edit: Center confirmed. Thanks mark! Concern still valid, however; even more so now. :D
Last edited by Texashawk on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re:

#6164 Postby GCRain » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:05 pm

HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph



11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?
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Re:

#6165 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:06 pm

HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.


Just same ol same ol update with no change in strength, but then again,
but what's new...It's Isaac afterall...
:lol:
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#6166 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:07 pm

Recon showing the systems center has been tugged westwards, center has moved under the deeper convection.

I suspect that is a major reason why we are starting to see pressure dropping. Whether or not this is shear easing or simply the wind shear changing direction, we need to see. I wonder what recon will find in the NE quadrant?
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Re: Re:

#6167 Postby Texashawk » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:08 pm

GCRain wrote:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph



11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?


Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it. :lol:
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Re:

#6168 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:09 pm

HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.


I suspect so, the only issue is the lack of convection on the NE quad which is where the big money in terms of winds will be, and since its lacking in that compartment, it may struggle to reflect the max wind speeds that the pressure should suggest.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6169 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:10 pm

984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6170 Postby TYNI » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:12 pm

frederic79 wrote:A sampling of buoys yesterday showed an average water temp of about 85 degrees, more than enough for a strong hurricane. When Georges transversed the Gulf in 1998, it was LATE September and water temps were around 81-82 degrees tops. It still made landfall as a high-end category 2 storm, around 105-110 sustained. So water temps aren't the issue here.

Also, does it seem like Isaac has slowed some or still trucking? Just wondering if I am seeing things...


Exactly - In the 10AM Forecast Discussion, NHC mentioned that it is partially due to the size of the wind radii, not SSTs.
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Re: Re:

#6171 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:12 pm

Texashawk wrote:
GCRain wrote:
HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Location: 26.1°N 85.9°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 984 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph



11AM advisory was 26.1N also.So can someone explain how if it's still at 26.1 latitude that it's moving NW? Wouldn't that be West?


Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it. :lol:


Now is this west movement something that will happen for a little longer?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6172 Postby windnrain » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:13 pm

Looks like recon is finding 70-75mph winds?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6173 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:13 pm

cycloneye wrote:984 mbs is a pretty low pressure for a Tropical Storm. I wonder what was the lowest pressure ever for a TS.


From what I know, we had Sean last year with 982 and Delta in 2005 with 980 millibars. I don't think those were the lowest ever though.
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#6174 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:14 pm

I think 984mbs is indeed very low for a TS, I can't imagine this not being a hurricane for much longer, surely its going to become a hurricane within the next 6hrs.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6175 Postby BigEasy » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:14 pm

Excellent site for SST profile.


Image

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Last edited by BigEasy on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:22 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Re:

#6176 Postby ozonepete » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:15 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Texashawk wrote:
Thank God I'm not going crazy. I thought I was the only one around here who saw it. :lol:


Now is this west movement something that will happen for a little longer?


It's stair-stepping: straight west then straight north, etc. They will smooth out the path based on multiple fixes and most likely come up with NW again.
Last edited by ozonepete on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#6177 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:15 pm

And will this west movement affect the landfall location?
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Re:

#6178 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:15 pm

HurrMark wrote:1:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 27
Six millibars in 9 hours...this is deepening pretty steadily now. Recon will probably confirm this is higher than 65.


Even more on the short term

Last AF vortex was 987 at 1440

This pass was almost exactly 3 hrs later

so 1mb/hr...
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#6179 Postby tailgater » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:16 pm

HurrMark wrote:I think this is the best it has ever looked. If this is still 65 mph per recon, I will eat my hat.

How's that hat taste. :lol:

According to latest update, but I just 70mph per recon.
Last edited by tailgater on Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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CarolinaNBANFL

#6180 Postby CarolinaNBANFL » Mon Aug 27, 2012 1:16 pm

This is the best looking Hurri.....I mean tropical storm I have ever seen in my life. Also, I think for some reason that they are wrong by at least 10 mph about this storm. I know shear can tear a storm apart but it's not as if this storm looks bad I have seen Hurricanes of 80 or 90 mph look worse than this. Not to mention this thing has dropped a huge amount of pressure amounts with no mph wind change.

Of course this is not an official forecast just a guy from Carolina who has seen and been in his share of storms.
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