ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Ntxw]

I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall.

Well to be fair, Euro is going NNW into direction of Arkansas at 96 hours after landfall

[deltadog03]

I think we have a very good consensus, for now....NOLA to Gulfport...and I think drifing/moving NNE or N through MS....GFS is an outlier drifting this WEST after landfall.

Well to be fair, Euro is going NNW into direction of Arkansas at 96 hours after landfall

Ya, but its not drifting W through LA either...

[wxwatcher1999]

So if it has traveled more west than thought would that mean the models have initialized in the wrong spot and if so would that cause a change in their track?

[Wx_Warrior]

Don't think we are going to see a drastic change in landfall. Within, what, 2 days now?

[thatwhichisnt]

Don't think we are going to see a drastic change in landfall. Within, what, 2 days now?

Doubt it. Minor wobbles, but not huge track shifts.

[Wx_Warrior]

From Eric Holthaus of WSJ:

"@WSJweather: All the most reliable models now agree: #Isaac will make landfall in SE Louisiana... a process which may take up to 36hrs starting tonight."

"@WSJweather: Hurricane Hunters officially report hurricane force winds in #Isaac. Waiting word on upgrade from NHC."

[rainstorm]

what does the euro do with possible kirk?

[gboudx]

what does the euro do with possible kirk?

If this is Invest 97L, then there are 2 other threads specific to it. Might look there.

[wxwatcher1999]

I think models will shift back west...I have no reason nor do I have any facts to back it up so don't bash me..just a gut feeling

[Texashawk]

I think models will shift back west...I have no reason nor do I have any facts to back it up so don't bash me..just a gut feeling

I agree. I think this wobble is going on a little too long and the models initialized before this extended W-WNW movement. May not be much - I'm thinking landfall between Lafayette and Lake Charles, but still significant.

[Kory]

I think models will shift back west...I have no reason nor do I have any facts to back it up so don't bash me..just a gut feeling

The track is pretty much where it's going to go. Not much shifting is going to be taking place since we are about 36 hours out.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Texashawk]

And with the way Isaac's symmetry is setting up, Texas may get some of the nasty stuff if landfall is closer to Lake Charles.

[wxwatcher1999]

I think models will shift back west...I have no reason nor do I have any facts to back it up so don't bash me..just a gut feeling

The track is pretty much where it's going to go. Not much shifting is going to be taking place since we are about 36 hours out.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So you are telling me the models won't move within 36 hrs of landfall...that's hard to believe

[Kory]

Isaac has already resumed a NW movement. Models will stay put, with track shifts under 10 miles or so.

[Wx_Warrior]

Isaac has already resumed a NW movement. Models will stay put, with track shifts under 10 miles or so.

I agree....Not going to see SWINGS anymore. Getting within two days. FOLLOW THE NHC track.

[ROCK]

yep time to close this down and move on to the SAT for better picture....so glad I dont need to stay up for the EURO tonight!

[Texashawk]

175200 2607N 08558W 8407 01390 //// +214 //// 131006 010 025 000 01 - Old center
193030 2614N 08556W 8412 01368 //// +203 //// 193002 006 018 003 01 - Near new probable center

.7 minutes north, .2 minutes east. Looks like another reorg, not sure the overall structure's moving that way through.

[capepoint]

I think models will shift back west...I have no reason nor do I have any facts to back it up so don't bash me..just a gut feeling

The track is pretty much where it's going to go. Not much shifting is going to be taking place since we are about 36 hours out.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So you are telling me the models won't move within 36 hrs of landfall...that's hard to believe

wont move very much, will wobble a few miles at the most.. ..we are really at the point where model watching is useless. time to nowcast.

[salescall]

Does anyone have a link to the rainfall prediction model for the storm?

[Blinhart]

I know I'm not a moderator, but there are a lot of posts on here that really need a disclaimer. This is the time that we will be getting a lot of newbies coming in, and they might take some of these statements as fact.