ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[facemane]

A sampling of buoys yesterday showed an average water temp of about 85 degrees, more than enough for a strong hurricane. When Georges transversed the Gulf in 1998, it was LATE September and water temps were around 81-82 degrees tops. It still made landfall as a high-end category 2 storm, around 105-110 sustained. So water temps aren't the issue here.

Also, does it seem like Isaac has slowed some or still trucking? Just wondering if I am seeing things...

I remember this well. The nights were also cooler after the storm passed and that helped tremendously not having power
to run the AC for a few days.

If I'm wrong,someone correct me,but I believe when Katrina exited the east coast of Florida and hit the gulf loop
current the SST's were 93 degrees. Katrina also had ideal atmospheric conditions to work with. Isaac throughout
it's life hasn't had that.

[KG4HPN]

Hrm. Advisory keeps it a TS with 65 MPH winds. I wonder if they just haven't seen the recon numbers yet, or if they're waiting to make sure those measurements weren't an anomaly.

[tolakram]

Hah

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature


Fools ya twice, shame on ....

[AFWeather]

Hrm. Advisory keeps it a TS with 65 MPH winds. I wonder if they just haven't seen the recon numbers yet, or if they're waiting to make sure those measurements weren't an anomaly.

The advisory came out before that data was gathered. Look for it to be incorporated into the next advisory if the NHC deems it quality data.

However, if they do think it's a hurricane at this point (questionable) they could always break in with a special update out of cycle just to upgrade it. They typically only do that if they find something unexpected or if it is rapidly strengthening.

[swampdude]

That is pretty gutsy. I'm thinking the 2pm update will be at least 75mph/985mb, and the numbers slowly going up to where the 11pm could be as high as 90mph/980. Just looking at the progression of this storm, the atmosphere it is entering, and the projected slow down in forward speed.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry, it is still at 65 mph, according to the 2 PM update. It can't really intensify by 10 mph in 3 hours with all those structural problems, it would be quite rare for a storm entraining dry air and experiencing some shear, along with an ill-defined circulation to suddenly ramp up into a hurricane in even 12 hours, let alone 3 hours. The pressure has dropped by 4 mbar, though, which could mean something.

um, Humberto?

Can't be Humberto because Humberto possessed "stealth powers". The NHC couldn't even identify it until it was over my house!!!

[bqhurricane]

I'm completely a scrub when it comes to this, but to my eyes, Isaac has been moving due west on the radar for the last 8 hours. Just a wobble?

[jlauderdal]

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


1225 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
08/27/2012 M63 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

[ROCK]

good outflow to the west occuring...I saw some high clouds come over my house...

[CronkPSU]

Hah

L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature


Fools ya twice, shame on ....

wait so there is no eye...again?

[wxwatcher1999]

I'm completely a scrub when it comes to this, but to my eyes, Isaac has been moving due west on the radar for the last 8 hours. Just a wobble?

Maybe that's why it all the sudden got quite on here

[Dean4Storms]

Think we might see an eye trying to appear before the sun sets today.

[ozonepete]

I'm completely a scrub when it comes to this, but to my eyes, Isaac has been moving due west on the radar for the last 8 hours. Just a wobble?

Maybe that's why it all the sudden got quite on here

Wait for the NHC 5PM center fix and discussion. Also could be a hurricane by then. (The eye is becoming apparent - RECON is far from done.)

[Extratropical94]

18Z Best Track update:

AL, 09, 2012082718, , BEST, 0, 261N, 859W, 60, 984, TS

[CrazyC83]

SFMR data from AFRecon is showing we might have Hurricane Isaac now.. winds at surface 70-75mph!

*Of Course thats on SE Leg outbound... expect higher winds in NE Side of storm... Flight level center is compact now

I think the cane winds were flagged? 61 was reliable though. I'd say 60 kt is reasonable given all the data.

[tailgater]

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


1225 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
08/27/2012 M63 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

Man they just can't get from under that rainband, maybe when the sun goes down it'll lighten up. Stay Safe Fla.

[psyclone]

I'm completely a scrub when it comes to this, but to my eyes, Isaac has been moving due west on the radar for the last 8 hours. Just a wobble?

Maybe that's why it all the sudden got quite on here

there is no radar that allows you to view the surface center. it's way too far from shore. smoothing out recon fixes over time allows you to discern movement. so do the NHC advisories. as was mentioned by a met earlier, storms stair step and you smooth those motions over time to determine a direction

[LSU2001]

Way out in front of Isaac the winds are starting to pick up at my house.
Tim
Humidity55%
Wind SpeedN 18 G 24 mph
Barometer29.88 in
Dewpoint72°F (22°C)
Visibility10.00 mi
Heat Index97°F (36°C)
Last Update on 27 Aug 1:55 pm CDT

[capepoint]

[quote="jlauderdal"]0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am afraid that when this is all said and done that flooding will be the biggest problem with Issac, and there will be a lot of it.

[summersquall]

Rainy, gusty day here on the Treasure Coast. Car and roof have been power-washed by Isaac

Looking at the Funktop Loop, it would appear that the large ball of convection (currently over my head) in combination with the inflow off the Yucatan is sort of putting the breaks on intensification. The storm wants to wrap around that convection yet it has to grapple with the drier air out of the Yucatan. It would seem logical that it's expending energy attempting to resolve the opposing forces throwing a monkey wrench into intensification. That convection to the east is tugged a bit to the northeast in the last few frames.



Just my amateur observation. Take it for what it's worth.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tailgater]

How far off is this chart?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes