ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KBBOCA]

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


1225 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
08/27/2012 M63 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

I guess no one will now accuse the SE FL media of overhyping the storm! It's interesting that so far some of the worst effects from Isaac have been far away from his center - e.g. Trinidad, and now Palm Beach Co.

I haven't seen detailed enough reports from Haiti or Cuba to know how bad his passage was through those areas... Praying NOLA and the Miss. Gulf Coast prove to be among the areas only lightly impacted from Isaac.

[SouthDadeFish]

Developing some nice structure now with the center right under the CDO, and two well developed feeder bands to the NW of the center:

[capepoint]

Most of the time the worst effects from a TS are well away from center, especially with a large storm like this.

[artist]

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


1225 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
08/27/2012 M63 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

that's where we live. I posted some pics of our yard in the preps thread. And the rain just keeps coming. And ours is mild compared to many.

[DESTRUCTION5]

0115 PM FLASH FLOOD THE ACREAGE 26.77N 80.25W
08/27/2012 PALM BEACH FL EMERGENCY MNGR

PALM BEACH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS WATER NOW ENTERING
HOMES AND UP TO MAILBOXES IN THE ACREAGE AND LOXAHATCHEE
AREA.

this storm isnt over in SE Florida


1225 PM TSTM WND GST OPA-LOCKA 25.90N 80.26W
08/27/2012 M63 MPH MIAMI-DADE FL ASOS

Areas PSL and Jensen Beach are impassable...This has been one wicked tail..7 inches and counting here in Eastern MC..

[Aric Dunn]

I am on the road to intercept Isaac. appears to be strengthening now has plenty of water to do so as well.

[stormhunter7]

Where is your planned intercept point Aric?

[midnight8]

I am on the road to intercept Isaac. appears to be strengthening now has plenty of water to do so as well.

Be safe

[ozonepete]

I am on the road to intercept Isaac. appears to be strengthening now has plenty of water to do so as well.

Very cool, Aric. I was wondering when you'd go after one! Enjoy and stay safe buddy.

[KWT]

I am on the road to intercept Isaac. appears to be strengthening now has plenty of water to do so as well.

Keep yourself safe!

It does look better now, starting to get a more classic look, looks like it is strengthening steadily now. Should have enough tiume to become a cat-2 IMO.

[tolakram]

In the hour by hour saga that is Isaac. Recon found no eyewall, last pass, now it appears lots of dry air is being entrained into the circulation. Hopefully this is a good sign that intensity will continue to be lower than expected, but a pro will need to evaluate first.

latest

[Aric Dunn]

I am on the road to intercept Isaac. appears to be strengthening now has plenty of water to do so as well.

Very cool, Aric. I was wondering when you'd go after one! Enjoy and stay safe buddy.

ive gone after many ! just school got in my way. lol my intercept point is still of course up in the air depending on track but right now looks like just inland of maybe gulf port to start then a little more west if need be.

[LSU2001]

Come on over to the house Aric, Looks like the eye has a good chance of passing over me.
tim

[Blinhart]

Looks to me that he has finally kicked the East arm completely off, this could lead to more intensification, especially since it appears he might of wobbled WSW a hair.

[KWT]

Next pass through the center should happen soon, I think given its heading through the NE quad this will be a reasonable chance to find hurricane winds.

[HurrMark]

In the hour by hour saga that is Isaac. Recon found no eyewall, last pass, now it appears lots of dry air is being entrained into the circulation. Hopefully this is a good sign that intensity will continue to be lower than expected, but a pro will need to evaluate first.

latest

Am I missing something? Where is this surge of dry air? If anything, it is becoming miniscule of a factor. I don't see this thing doing anything but intensifying.

[Aric Dunn]

pretty sure there should be a part of an eyewall forming ...

[GCANE]

RAP is showing 300mb winds over Isaac being predominated by the ULL NW of the Yucatan tip.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

NAM is showing the ULL moving west and will be on the Mexican coast about this time tomorrow.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/model/displ ... all&hours=

Isaac may pop his cork then. CAPE has been roughly 4000 for the past few hours in his core.

[wxman57]

Based on this mission 60 kt seems reasonable for the next advisory.

Recon is making a pass from NE-SW now. Should pass through the stronger winds in the next 30-40 min or so. Wouldn't surprise me if they found 55 to 60 kts. So far, just about 45 kts and maybe 50.

[tolakram]

In the hour by hour saga that is Isaac. Recon found no eyewall, last pass, now it appears lots of dry air is being entrained into the circulation. Hopefully this is a good sign that intensity will continue to be lower than expected, but a pro will need to evaluate first.

latest

Am I missing something? Where is this surge of dry air? If anything, it is becoming miniscule of a factor. I don't see this thing doing anything but intensifying.

I'm going by satellite appearance only, and the fact the northern edge of the storm has eroded compared to earlier. No doubt I could be very very wrong. Wouldn't be the first time.