ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Joe Bastardi Tweet:

"Isaac pressure down to 982. horseshoe Eye appearing"

pic.twitter.com/FRHOWfxf

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 6806679552

haha well, glad to see Im not the only one who saw it...or at least, Im not the only one whos going crazy

[gqhebert]

Dr Jeff Masters is with the weather channel now......

[EBrads146]

Joe Bastardi Tweet:

"Isaac pressure down to 982. horseshoe Eye appearing"

pic.twitter.com/FRHOWfxf

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 6806679552

haha well, glad to see Im not the only one who saw it...or at least, Im not the only one whos going crazy

I might have been the crazy one here! I'd like to see another few frame or two before I'm sure, but this is an interesting development.
Be careful, folks.

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[rainstorm]

here is my opinion. if isaac comes in as a 960 mb cane(low end 3 based on pressure) and the nhc has it at 85 mph, it will cause low end cat3 damage.

[micktooth]

Dr Jeff Masters is with the weather channel now......

Weather Underground was bought by TWC

[capepoint]

I have a question myself and my family live in the Denham Springs/Watson area and I was curious what might we be looking at storm wise?? and should we evacuate? I feel evacuation is a little extreme, but then again we have never had a storm head straight for us like this either. Any help would be greatly appreciated

Follow official information from your local national weather service office and your county emergency management. They know your area and what effects can be expected better than anyone.

[fasterdisaster]

JB has a point when he wonders how a 1007 mb storm can have 65 mph winds and a 981 mb storm can have 65 mph winds. 26 mb's is a huge difference. under normal circumstances 981 can easily support 90 mph winds.

Irene at one point had winds of that with a 962 mb pressure.

True, but Irene was winding down at that point. I can't remember the last storm in a strengthening phase to remain a tropical storm at 980 mb.

[Extratropical94]

JB has a point when he wonders how a 1007 mb storm can have 65 mph winds and a 981 mb storm can have 65 mph winds. 26 mb's is a huge difference. under normal circumstances 981 can easily support 90 mph winds.

Irene at one point had winds of that with a 962 mb pressure.

True, but Irene was winding down at that point. I can't remember the last storm in a strengthening phase to remain a tropical storm at 980 mb.

Tropical storm Delta in 2005 never became a cane, but reached a minimum central pressure of 980 mb.

[HurrMark]

It all depends on the gradient. In the mid-latitudes, wind fields expand and therefore it takes a much lower pressure to get the same winds as somewehre down in the tropics. Ambient pressures are important too...Wilma had a pressure 30 mb less than Andrew, but the intensity wasn't that much greater.

If we are talking 980-981 with this though, this should be a hurricane now or very soon (my opinion).

[KWT]

980mbs wojuld be very deep for a system still in the tropics for a TS. I'd imagine its only a matter of time before it gets upgraded.

Models have done a very good job with timings of strengthening, they did suggest strengthening would occur about now.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is Isaac past the point where he was forecasted to go NW?

[Countrygirl911]

here is my opinion. if isaac comes in as a 960 mb cane(low end 3 based on pressure) and the nhc has it at 85 mph, it will cause low end cat3 damage.

if they have it as only 85mph winds and has a pressure of a cat 3 will it deffentely cause cat 3 damage i am so confussed about this i just need to know what to prepare for

[cheezyWXguy]

JB has a point when he wonders how a 1007 mb storm can have 65 mph winds and a 981 mb storm can have 65 mph winds. 26 mb's is a huge difference. under normal circumstances 981 can easily support 90 mph winds.

Irene at one point had winds of that with a 962 mb pressure.

True, but Irene was winding down at that point. I can't remember the last storm in a strengthening phase to remain a tropical storm at 980 mb.

Ike comes to mind, but instead when it was on the verge of a major with 950mb pressure. Needless to say, this ones not quite that big or strong, but with a large circulation like this, it takes a while for the winds to catch up with the organization. Id venture a guess to say he's probably a hurricane right now though.

[KWT]

Also there are numerous flight level winds around the 70-75kts range, its hard to believe the NHC won't pull the trigger, esp as its strengthening at the moment.

[thatwhichisnt]

TWC said they believe it will follow the eastern edge of the cone. What do yall think?

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[Time_Zone]

Willing to bet we see Hurricane Isaac in a few moments.

Pressure is really starting to fall...he's still having a hard time with dry air and his convection is warming though FWIW

[HurrMark]

here is my opinion. if isaac comes in as a 960 mb cane(low end 3 based on pressure) and the nhc has it at 85 mph, it will cause low end cat3 damage.

if they have it as only 85mph winds and has a pressure of a cat 3 will it deffentely cause cat 3 damage i am so confussed about this i just need to know what to prepare for

The Saffir Simpson scale was changed several years ago - it used to be based on winds and pressure. Now it is only based on winds. Here in the Northeast, we get systems in the 960s relatively frequently with noreasters, but they don't cause cat-3 damage.

[HurrMark]

Also there are numerous flight level winds around the 70-75kts range, its hard to believe the NHC won't pull the trigger, esp as its strengthening at the moment.

Given its smaller size, this should intensify quicker than Ike given the right conditions.

[hcane27]

Is Isaac past the point where he was forecasted to go NW?

Actually , he is very close to the forecast point from Advisory 23 .... issued 5 pm EDT Sunday ....

[ColdFusion]

That would be forecasting a landfall between gulfport and mobile. If its in the cone its possible, but I'd have to see a more pronounced N movement to go with that at this moment - according to what we know right now.

TWC said they believe it will follow the eastern edge of the cone. What do yall think?

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