ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[rainstorm]

No hurricane? wow....with Isaac potentially undergoing RI right now i'm extremely surprised they didnt bump him up.

its a slow steady intensification. later tonight with the diurnal maximum is the time to see if we have steep pressure falls.

[TheGreatWalter]

Also, NHC back upto forecasting 85kts for landfall.

85 KTS? I thought maybe 85 MPH but that would be nearing 100 MPH. I can't find the graphic yet showing their strength projections.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 29.5N 90.0W...NEAR THE COAST
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 80SW 150NW.

From the new advisory

[SoupBone]

TWC said they believe it will follow the eastern edge of the cone. What do yall think?

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Did they give any reasoning why?

[BigB0882]

Thanks for clarifying. I was wondering if it would be possible for winds to continue to strengthen after landfall in a system where winds take a long time to catch up to the MB drops as appears to be happening in this storm. Anyone know if it works that way? For example, if Isaac dropped 10 MBs in the hours right before landfall would it be possible that the winds would react AFTER landfall?

[FutureEM]

This is pretty fascinating, still a TS after so long even in good conditions. Not sure why this is taking so long.

[capepoint]

Still a TS? Geez...well, at least they upped the winds a tad.

There is no definitive Recon data (just a flagged 64 kt SFMR reading) supporting hurricane status.

I would expect that this should change soon...pressure has dropped 9 mb in 12 hours. This is clearly intensifying IMHO.

those higher winds were found a little after 4pm eastern weren't they? They may have already had most of the stuff written by then for the 5 oclock.......

[gone2beach]

cat 2 now forecast from the NHC Guess they think it will get its act together in the next 24 hours.

Where did you see/hear that? I just heard that "1 would be a reasonable forecast".

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wxwatcher1999]

Is it still moving NW cause I just don't see it?

[StormGuy]

Is it still moving NW cause I just don't see it?

According to NHC, yes.

[cycloneye]

Those members who have not voted yet on the NGOM Intensity Landfall poll go now as it closes at 6 PM EDT.Link to poll that is on the contests forum.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113529&st=0&sk=t&sd=a

[Time_Zone]

No hurricane? wow....with Isaac potentially undergoing RI right now i'm extremely surprised they didnt bump him up.

That seems dramatic. Is there any evidence of this undergoing RI right now? Even one little bit? That kind of posting is irresponsible.

Considering the pressure drop over the past hour or two...i'm not sure what you're talking about. I said he "potentially" could be undergoing RI right now I didnt say he was....look at the recent recon data it's not much of a reach at this point at all.

[OzCycloneChaserTrav]

85 knots sustained =
98 miles an hour
157kmhr

Gusting too 105 knots =
121 miles an hour
194kmhr

If these figures from NHC are true, Isaac will be a damaging storm wind wise upon landfall too.

[drezee]

Heights are down another 20 meters since the last pass. This is deepening for sure.

[Portastorm]

No hurricane? wow....with Isaac potentially undergoing RI right now i'm extremely surprised they didnt bump him up.

That seems dramatic. Is there any evidence of this undergoing RI right now? Even one little bit? That kind of posting is irresponsible.

Considering the pressure drop over the past hour or two...i'm not sure what you're talking about. I said he "potentially" could be undergoing RI right now I didnt say he was....look at the recent recon data it's not much of a reach at this point at all.

Let's go easy on each other and keep the judgmental stuff to yourself, please. Warnings will come next.

[Weather Watcher]

Is New Orleans levy's going to be able to hold does anyone know???

[psyclone]

JB has a point when he wonders how a 1007 mb storm can have 65 mph winds and a 981 mb storm can have 65 mph winds. 26 mb's is a huge difference.

I know! I know! It's because the winds yesterday were a bit (way) overstated by the advisories. The NHC doesn't like to lower a storm's wind speed as it's near land. This means sometimes saying a storm has 65 mph wind when the actual winds are closer to 50. They never want to give the public any reason not to heed TS warnings. Their goal is to protect lives and I can't fault them for that.

while such a goal is laudable the problem is that they're building complacency over time. Tampa bay just endured another TS warning with winds that were barely strong enough to keep the mosquitoes at bay. Just when you think complacency can't get worse, it gets reinforced. Frankly, if 50mph is a tropical storm (as compared to 65mph) there's no reason to overstate intensity. i am convinced that windfields are way overdone as are warnings and one day that could contribute to a real disaster.

[deltadog03]

Looks like the short term motion, from VDM and SAT looks NNW right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

Eyewall looks to be establishing itself on the western side now, after wrapping around the south, then east, then north. CDO also appears to be expanding. It looks like Isaac is finally intensifying. How far he gets and how quickly he does so, thats still up for grabs.

[thatwhichisnt]

New Orleans levees can hold back a cat 3. Everything else will over top. They won't fail.

My company built a lot of the new ones, did repairs, and did some pump station stuff. We wanted to make it cat 5 "proof", but let's just say we had trouble convincing people of that.

Don't worry people. You are much better prepared this go round. Still not ideal though, expect some over toppings at some places.

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[Time_Zone]

Is New Orleans levy's going to be able to hold does anyone know???

Nobody knows for sure but the safe answer would probably be "yes" at this point.