ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Blinhart]

This storm does have the feeling of moving further West than the projected path. I'm not saying it is going to go out of the cone, but I'm feeling it just might make it into Vermillion Bay or a little West of there. As the crow flies that is not a big difference, but for timing and amount of influx into the lakes will be drastic.

[Wx_Warrior]

Does anyone have a link to the reainfall prediction model for the storm?

This was this morning per NHC:



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[Jevo]

I was looking at images of Isaac making his way up north and the energy transistioning into the North Atlantic and found this Gem on the 12z GFS +216.......


OK back to Isaac

[rainstorm]

thats the possible future kirk

[Wx_Warrior]

4p NHC advisory



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[capepoint]

At this point, I will go out on a limb and state quite emphatically that this IS NOT going into Texas.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

At this point, I will go out on a limb and state quite emphatically that this IS NOT going into Texas.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

You sir, are a bold forecaster!

I will join you in that proclamation.

[petit_bois]

Has anyone noticed that the NHC 5pm is west of both the most
recent GFS and Euro... not by much but they do.

[Blinhart]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/i ... smodel.gif

So evidently one of the models have Isaac doing a complete loop and ends up just East of New Orleans at the end, and another has it loop down to the Georgia SE coast line before turning back West and ending up in the Middle of Alabama. I know those are not very likely, but what is the likely chance of Isaac making it all the way back into the Atlantic and reforming?

[petit_bois]

gfs should be running now...
anyone know how to get it?

[thatwhichisnt]

http://icons-ak.wunderground.com/data/images/at201209_ensmodel.gif

So evidently one of the models have Isaac doing a complete loop and ends up just East of New Orleans at the end, and another has it loop down to the Georgia SE coast line before turning back West and ending up in the Middle of Alabama. I know those are not very likely, but what is the likely chance of Isaac making it all the way back into the Atlantic and reforming?

We can't even nail this thing down a few days out. Don't do this to us lol

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[gboudx]

gfs should be running now...
anyone know how to get it?

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/conussfc.php

You'll have to use the drop-down list and select "Mean Sea Level Pressure" or whatever it is you want to model.

[petit_bois]

27hrs 18z GFS mouth of the MS river

[southerngale]

18z GFS goes inland SE Louisiana and then heads wnw near the coast, then NW in La.

[Portastorm]

18z GFS goes inland SE Louisiana and then heads wnw near the coast, then NW in La.

Yeah, almost a carbon copy of the 12z run.

[Wx_Warrior]

18z gfs 33h



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[Wx_Warrior]

18z gfs 69h



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[BigB0882]

That doesn't cover very much ground in 36 hours. Flooding could be very bad for someone.

[rainstorm]

i wonder if the next panels will show a sw movement. that high is rather strong.

[Wx_Warrior]

FWIW, 18z 75h



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