ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KWT]

So yeah for a little or than 3 hours the motion has been a solid nnw with room to spare. to be honest I think it would be prudent in some cases for the nhc to do 3 hour averages especially in cases like this where the wobbles and the shifting around makes a huge difference doing a six hour motion of wnw to nw is fine out in the middle of the atlantic now is when it matter.

To be fair, when these systems come in they do often come in a little right of the forecast line, so that wouldn't be all that surprising to me if that is the case.

[tolakram]

Let's stop the JB comments please. He is a pro-met, and met bashing is not allowed. Rules are rules.

Latest Visible

I think it looks somewhat better than the worse it looked the last time it didn't improve.

[Dean4Storms]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

I could see that, BUT with a BIG but. The levee infrastructure is much better today, then 7 years ago, by far. No comparison. And if the levees would ot have failde, there would have been much less damage. Basically very little as far as flooding went/goes. Wind damage could be the same, ONLY if Isaac takes the projected path, because the winds that will be experienced will basically be equal. Katrina, New Orleans area got the west side of Katrina; 105mph gusts. Isaac, with the direct path forecast, winds would/could gust similarly. So the wind damage amy be close to equal, but the water and floodign event, will be much less. Only potentila fly in the ointment.....rainfall totals, of which with Isaac, it appears and is forecast to be mcu wetter. And alot slower speed.

We shall see.

Whoa.... If Isaac was to stall as the GFS has been depicting that is a whole bunch of continuous storm surge with no where to go but up!

[cycloneye]

Here is how the poll voting went to the different options from the 128 members that cast their vote. Cat 2 was the option with the more votes.Thanks to those who participated.

viewtopic.php?f=25&t=113529&hilit=&start=0

[KWT]

Well to be fair Issac's approach angle would be worse than Katrina's, and whilst the surge won't be as high, I'm sure it'll be enough to get some people very nervous about the outcome.

[monicaei]

Wait, there is legitimate thought/basis that this could be "worse than Katrina"? Jeezus, that's not the attitude down here at all. That would be a catrasrophe beyond words. At least with K you saw the buzz saw coming. NO ONE is prepared for that.

[Shuriken]

Is New Orleans levy's going to be able to hold does anyone know???

Corps of Engineers says they will withstand up to Cat 5.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the forecast trajectory, a surge-bore right up the Mississippi is a possibility.

[tolakram]

Wait, there is legitimate thought/basis that this could be "worse than Katrina"? Jeezus, that's not the attitude down here at all. That would be a catrasrophe beyond words. At least with K you saw the buzz saw coming. NO ONE is prepared for that.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to give my OPINION that the answer to that is no, no legitimate thought or basis that it could be worse than Katrina. That is the word of just one pro-met making a comment. In the large scheme of things it is not impossible, but right now is not expected by the NHC or most mets that I have heard from.

[fasterdisaster]

Let's stop the JB comments please. He is a pro-met, and met bashing is not allowed. Rules are rules.

Latest Visible

I think it looks somewhat better than the worse it looked the last time it didn't improve.

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/5875/zztempa.jpg

I have a hard time believing that's not a hurricane.

[WeatherGuesser]

If you look at this and zoom in:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

You'll see estimates of 10' or more in storm surge. Location and angle will make a difference.

So, I think the better question about the levees is how much storm surge can they be expected to handle?

[Nimbus]

JB on the radio....thinks a cat 2-3 into SE LA....pretty much the 1947 storm all over again with the attack angle pushing all that water in Poncho...he say it could be worse than Katrina for NO because of the angle.

just repeating what he said if that is allowed on here. He was on Hannity...

I could see that, BUT with a BIG but. The levee infrastructure is much better today, then 7 years ago, by far. No comparison. And if the levees would ot have failde, there would have been much less damage. Basically very little as far as flooding went/goes. Wind damage could be the same, ONLY if Isaac takes the projected path, because the winds that will be experienced will basically be equal. Katrina, New Orleans area got the west side of Katrina; 105mph gusts. Isaac, with the direct path forecast, winds would/could gust similarly. So the wind damage amy be close to equal, but the water and floodign event, will be much less. Only potentila fly in the ointment.....rainfall totals, of which with Isaac, it appears and is forecast to be mcu wetter. And alot slower speed.

We shall see.

Whoa.... If Isaac was to stall as the GFS has been depicting that is a whole bunch of continuous storm surge with no where to go but up!

Recon is finding a lot of 50 knot winds which will bring down tree limbs and power lines at the least. A stall would be potentially devastating since it would increase flood damage enormously. The projected 3-5 foot storm surge should not be a threat to the updated levee system if there are no weak areas. Last time it was unchecked over topping of some low levees that eventually caused the failures. Prolonged rain and flood surge might create similar problems this time.

[ConvergenceZone]

Let's stop the JB comments please. He is a pro-met, and met bashing is not allowed. Rules are rules.

Latest Visible

I think it looks somewhat better than the worse it looked the last time it didn't improve.

http://img696.imageshack.us/img696/5875/zztempa.jpg

I respect what you say tolakram,thus I won't mention JB anymore, but I disagree with you in that I think we have a right to question or criticize anything anyone says that is way over the top and dramatic... I won't do that on this forum, but you can bet that JB will get messages from me via Twitter.

[monicaei]

Wait, there is legitimate thought/basis that this could be "worse than Katrina"? Jeezus, that's not the attitude down here at all. That would be a catrasrophe beyond words. At least with K you saw the buzz saw coming. NO ONE is prepared for that.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


I'm going to give my OPINION that the answer to that is no, no legitimate thought or basis that it could be worse than Katrina. That is the word of just one pro-met making a comment. In the large scheme of things it is not impossible, but right now is not expected by the
NHC or most mets that I have heard from.

Thanks.

What a horrific thing to say, and so poorly timed. For the people who lived through the storm, and it's aftermath, with another storm bearing down on us... If it's true we need to know. If it's not, that's shameful. Sorry if that's a violation to say on here...

[tolakram]

I respect what you say tolakram,thus I won't mention JB anymore, but I disagree with you in that I think we have a right to question or criticize anything anyone says that is way over the top and dramatic... I won't do that on this forum, but you can bet that JB will get messages from me via Twitter.

Actually what I intended to say is stop the bashing. Respectful disagreement is ok. I think the comment was really over the top, but it was out of context and I did not see it, so I really can't say.

[WeatherGuesser]

And remember, this is the pro-met who swore up and down for days that this system would run up the east coast, long after everything and everyone else had settled ion a Gulf system.

[crimi481]

Could the E. SIde of storm moisten up and fill in - form bands again - or forever dry?
Thanks

[highpressuresystem]

LOL @ JB. Katrina was a Cat.5 monster. Katrina would eat Isaac alive.

To be fair Katrina was down to a cat 3 well before landfall and NOLA was on the left side. With Isaac's possible approach angle I could see where it could theoretically be worse for NOLA if all things were equal but as we know there not. For JB to say what he did is irresponsible considering residents can take to mean several different things including more deaths. I don't know alot about JB but he certainly seems to want to say dramatic things or lay out worst case scenarios in a way that would lead people to think they are likely. He has changed his tune on this storm every 6 hours just like the rest of us. O

[HurrMark]

I kinda see the dry air, but I don't think this is enough to prevent at least steady strengthening. And it looks like it's really affecting the north side more than the east side. The latest image on satellite shows some rather deep thunderstorms on the SW side of the developing eyewall: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/flash-avn-long.html

[Dirteng]

Is New Orleans levy's going to be able to hold does anyone know???

Corps of Engineers says they will withstand up to Cat 5.

They don't use the Cat 5 as a measurement of storm intensity. The system is much improved and built to higher elevations. The IHNC Lake Borgne Barrier is in place and so it the Seabrook Floodgate. Neither of these barriers were in existance for Katrina.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given the forecast trajectory, a surge-bore right up the Mississippi is a possibility.

[deltadog03]

Recon still showing a nice NNW motion right now.....