ATL: ISAAC - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

Pretty much a consensus now, my friend. There's still room for a tad hair east.

[mvtrucking]

That doesn't cover very much ground in 36 hours. Flooding could be very bad for someone.

We are a ways inland, but northeast La could get drenched if that verifies.

[Dean4Storms]

18z HWRF into MS........

http://www.weatherbellmodels.com/weathe ... p_loop.php

[deltadog03]

I think the HWRF has a pretty good handle, at least on the short term motion...

[rainstorm]

how strong does it show it? does anyone have individual panels?

[Frank P]

how strong does it show it? does anyone have individual panels?

I think around 953 mb

[Wx_Warrior]

hwrf 18z 36H



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[rainstorm]

thanks

[Wx_Warrior]

GFDL 18z shifts east, had SWLA on 12z.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

hwrf 18z 36H



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I'm very skeptical that will verify, but we shall see.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[bella_may]

hwrf 18z 36H



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I'm very skeptical that will verify, but we shall see.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

948 mb is a category 2. correct?

[rainstorm]

hwrf 18z 36H



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

I'm very skeptical that will verify, but we shall see.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

948 mb is a category 2. correct?

cat3

[rainstorm]

where does gfdl go from there?

[Wx_Warrior]

^948mb is a low end Cat 3

[PTPatrick]

There is now almost unanimous model
Consensus that eye will pass between Gulfport ms and new Orleans. Gfdl moved east and now directly over nola via the miss river. GFS is similar. hwrf, Uk, euro, and cmc all pretty much Hancock county Mississippi hits. GFS was already west of ensembles this afternoon. At this points it's all moot as it should come in as a sloppy cat 1 so exact landfall is not all that important. God knows it wasn't in katrina. But a landfall a bit east of Nola could potentially add a couple feet of surge. Big problem at this point is probably surge in Hancock county and the eastern parishes and rainfall. Depending on landfall structure(impossible to predict) the worst weather could actually be even further east toward Biloxi eastward... Unfortunately Hancock is probably one of the most surge vulnerable sections of us coastline(if not the most when ou ad in climatologically favored hurricane tracks). Fortunately it was so swamped in Katrina thy most folks will have rebuilt way able why this storm will bring.

[Wx_Warrior]

gfdz 18z 72h



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Wx_Warrior]

There is now almost unanimous model
Consensus that eye will pass between Gulfport ms and new Orleans. Gfdle moved east and now directly over nola via the miss river. GFS is similar. hwrf, Uk, euro, and cmc all pretty much Hancock county Mississippi hits. GFS was already west of ensembles this afternoon. At this points it's all moot as it should come in as a sloppy cat 1 so exact landfall is not all that important. God knows it wasn't in katrina. But a landfall a bit east of Nola could potentially add a couple feet of surge. Big problem at this point is probably surge in Hancock county and the eastern parishes and rainfall. Hancock is probably one of the most surge vulnerable sections of us coastline(if not the most when ou ad in climatologically favored hurricane tracks). Fortunately it was so swamped in Katrina thy most folks will have rebuilt way able why this storm will bring.

Correct. Several mentioned earlier, model watching is likely over for landfall.

[Sabanic]

That would definitely cause us here on Mobile Bay and those in Gulf Shores & Pensacola more problems also.

[bella_may]

hmm. perhaps the hwrf is hinting that this will be a stronger storm if it misses SE La and hits Ms?

[smw1981]

I can't imagine that it will get that low, but even if it does, I don't think it will be a 3. As someone mentioned earlier in the discussions thread, Isaac needs a lower pressure to than normal per category because of his size.