ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

It's not a pinhole eye.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... =spect.pal

Check this loop, I'll post the latest image in just a minute. The core of Isaac is in really bad shape right now, and recon reported a poorly defined eye.

[SouthDadeFish]

The P3 just released a VDM and said the eye wall still poorly defined. Not a pinhole eye. An optical illusion.

[locke]

Just out of curiosity. Are people questioning the accuracy of NHC's storm surge predictions when complaining about any comparisons with Katrina?

I fully understand that in terms of virtually any measurement you care to look at there is simply no comparison between Katrina and Isaac (which has not yet even attained hurricance strength).

However, New Orleans vulnerability is and always has been storm surge. The storm surge maps for Isaac if accurate must be a cause for concern and as far as I can tell this was the comparison that was being made with Katrina. The highest recorded strom surge measurement in New Orleans from Katrina was 12 feet. Further East it was estimated to have exceeded 30 ft but New Orleans was spared the brunt of this.

The question then arises, if Isaac comes in at a slightly different angle with a maximum storm surge height in the 10-12ft range, is there any reason to believe, outside of any improvements to the levee system post Katrina, that the same result could not transpire. The storm surge prediction maps I see from NHC are certainly showing the potentital for a surge of that magnitude.

It pays to remember that it wasn't the wind and rain that caused the loss of life in New Orleans. It was the failure of the levee system in the face of a 12 ft storm surge.

Yep Isaac is no Katrina but its storm surge still is potentially quite dangerous for New Oreleans.

[tolakram]

Latest IR

[weunice]

It is important to note that topography plays a big role in how high the storm surge can go in a particular area. IOW, the 30 foot surge that hit the Mississippi gulf coast didn't miss being 30 feet in New Orleans. A 30 foot surge in New Orleans would be next to impossible.

So I guess it depends on where the 12 foot surge is projected to be.

[rockyman]

If for some reason this is an eye forming, then the path of the storm has been NNW since 5pm. Here's a marked up map:



My guess is that this "eye" is actually a little north of the center, and it should wrap into the actual center over the next few minutes.

[ColdFusion]

You are not kidding! If that is, its practically at the latitude its supposed to be at tomorrow! Wouldnt that mean a way different impact than what is being reported on NOLA news right now?

If (big if) the dark spot on this satellite loop is the eye, Isaac is well north of its NHC forecast track (click the Fsct Pts box):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[mesoclone]

Is the dry air that Isaac is pulling in from the south the biggest factor in impeding its development?

[stormreader]

You are not kidding! If that is, its practically at the latitude its supposed to be at tomorrow! Wouldnt that mean a way different impact than what is being reported on NOLA news right now?

If (big if) the dark spot on this satellite loop is the eye, Isaac is well north of its NHC forecast track (click the Fsct Pts box):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Storm is so lopsided that I think we can expect larger than normal wobbles of north then west. Can that really be an eye???

[SapphireSea]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's already been noted that there is no eye. The storm is not in a conducive environment for any explosive or even rapid deepening. The pro mets have stated this over and over. Recon is building more and more evidence that the structure is poor. The threat is still the same; there is going to be alot of precipitation and powerful squalls associated with this storm that need to be heeded. The surge threat is moderate, but not at any historically significant levels for a storm. Heed the NHC guidance is my best and most appropriate advice to anyone.

[smw1981]

Is the dry air that Isaac is pulling in from the south the biggest factor in impeding its development?

Definitely one of them...

[jeff]

Is the dry air that Isaac is pulling in from the south the biggest factor in impeding its development?

Yes and its large wind field (size)

[Lane]

Ok, so I have been a member for 10 years with probably less than 20 posts cause most of my questions are answered by other members. But I forgot my username and such so I'll start over not a big deal. Anyways I was wondering how the diurnal cycle will effect this storm. Will the decrease in atmospheric temps. but stable oceanic temps. cause Isaac to gain strength? How does this work? Mind you I am a novice at this.

I just want to bump this question up, as Isaac has done better at night.

[Stephanie]

Isaac was never able to this point to be able to get a true eye together. However, the storm surge, flooding rains and the wind speeds even where they are now are going to cause some dangerous conditions.

[stormreader]

Just checked Shortwave Imagery and the "dot" has shown a movement of NW.

[jinftl]

Parts of Florida didn't get off easy at all from Isaac. Per news, worst flooding in 50 years in parts of Palm Beach County. 36 hour rainfall totals of 12"-16" in many parts of county...some areas over 20". Worst hit areas include Wellington, Loxahatchee, Royal Palm, Boynton Beach, Delray Beach. Some neighborhoods reporting up to 14" of water in homes. Upwards of 80,000 without power in the area. Schools closed county wide tomorrow.

Isaac has already show he can mean business....and now he is intensifying...

Storm rainfall totals (in inches):




Around Palm Beach county today:

[StormGuy]

I think the flooding rains and storm surge are the biggest worries at this point. Isaac may not even become a huricane and this storm will still be dangerous.

[Countrygirl911]

my midland radio does not want to go off we were put under a tropical storm warning earlier and it did not go off ever since we have had it it has only gone off once and we have been thew more than one warrining since we have had it what can i do to correct this the channel is correct and the code for my county is correct have it set to alert tone but nothing i could really use this thing over the next few days

[MHurricanes]

Just out of curiosity. Are people questioning the accuracy of NHC's storm surge predictions when complaining about any comparisons with Katrina?

I fully understand that in terms of virtually any measurement you care to look at there is simply no comparison between Katrina and Isaac (which has not yet even attained hurricance strength).

However, New Orleans vulnerability is and always has been storm surge. The storm surge maps for Isaac if accurate must be a cause for concern and as far as I can tell this was the comparison that was being made with Katrina. The highest recorded strom surge measurement in New Orleans from Katrina was 12 feet. Further East it was estimated to have exceeded 30 ft but New Orleans was spared the brunt of this.

The question then arises, if Isaac comes in at a slightly different angle with a maximum storm surge height in the 10-12ft range, is there any reason to believe, outside of any improvements to the levee system post Katrina, that the same result could not transpire. The storm surge prediction maps I see from NHC are certainly showing the potentital for a surge of that magnitude.

It pays to remember that it wasn't the wind and rain that caused the loss of life in New Orleans. It was the failure of the levee system in the face of a 12 ft storm surge.

Yep Isaac is no Katrina but its storm surge still is potentially quite dangerous for New Oreleans.

Very well stated.

[ConvergenceZone]

I think the inland flooding is going to be absolutely devasting!!! All one has to do is look at the Florida florida where the storm didn't even come ashore and realize what Isaac is going to be doing to LA/MS......