ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

wow jinftl, that just goes to show us no matter where this thing makes landfall it's gonna cause torriential downpours for Se La, the Ms coast, and the Al coast

[thatwhichisnt]

Anyone else buying the east and north shift?

[tolakram]

Anyone else buying the east and north shift?

What east and north shift?

[MGC]

Dry air has just about completly eroded the convection on the north side of the circulation. That may or may not be the eye that is apparent on IR....it could be a mid level feature and not at the surface....only way you can assume that is if the cyclone is in perfect vertical alignment. The VDM is the only way to track the surface circulation right now. Radar is too far away to see near the surface......MGC

[Emmett_Brown]

Isaac certainly has slowed down, at least it seems to have slowed over the past several hours. Perhaps he is entering that COL between the ridge to his E, ridge to his W, and short wave to the N. He looks to be a bit to the right of the forecast track at the moment, but as everyone has pointed out already, wobbles are sometimes large during development phases.

[rockyman]

After reviewing this loop, it appears that the "eye like feature" was indeed dry air, but, perhaps just as importantly, the center appears to be in almost the same spot as this feature. This would mean that Isaac is a good bit east of its forecast track:

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=400

[tailgater]

The dry is our saving grace tonite as the ULL in the BOC is probably helping vent Isaac now. Take a look at the WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[thatwhichisnt]

Anyone else buying the east and north shift?

What east and north shift?

One I keep hearing people talking about. I don't see it though. Just wanted y'alls opinion.

[jinftl]

For sure...and there has been alot of rain lately in the very region Isaac is heading to.

One thing to also consider - and this shows that sometimes 'being in the cone' isn't an 'all clear'. Isaac's center never got closer than 250 miles from Palm Beach county. Got stuck under training of rainband after rainband...worst was today...when the storm was 350+ miles from the county.

All storms need to be taken seriously. If there are warnings from the NHC, NWS, Emergency Management, etc....take them seriously. NHC has been headlining 'isaac is significant storm surge and flooding threat' in all their advisories today. If people choose not to listen or make the determination that a tropical storm or lower end 'cane can't cause serious flooding, read what the NHC is saying. They are saying it. It is a call for individuals to now take personal responsibility to protect their property and lives.

wow jinftl, that just goes to show us no matter where this thing makes landfall it's gonna cause torriential downpours for Se La, the Ms coast, and the Al coast

[rockyman]

Anyone else buying the east and north shift?

What east and north shift?

One I keep hearing people talking about. I don't see it though. Just wanted y'alls opinion.

The TVCN consensus track has shifted east and north (see model thread), and Isaac's center appears to be east of the NHC 5pm track. It's my opinion that NHC will shift the track a little east at 10pm.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

60 frame IR loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... height=800

You can zoom in to get a slightly better view. Convection seems to be on the rebound, slowly.

[dexterlabio]

I am surprised that Isaac is still a TS tonight. It has been over the Caribbean and the Eastern GOM for a long time and all it did was to withstand the unfavorable environment hampering its development. I am aware El Nino is still brewing and El Nino conditions may not be felt over the Atlantic region right now.....still considering how this storm has fared so far, it seems that conditions are more hostile than it usually were during this time of the year, reflecting more of an El Nino. Otherwise, it could have been a strong hurricane by now.


Now I am in doubt if this will really become a Cat2 or even a low-end Cat1 at all... Then again, one does not need to become a very strong tropical cyclone to cause trouble. Don't wait for it to become a hurricane before you make all the preps.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DukeDevil91]

I wonder if recent convection flare up just west of the center will stay there.

[Time_Zone]

Big blowup of convection exactly where he needed it. looks like he's making one last run at building a solid eyewall. If he can pull it together tonight then he still has a decent chance at category 2. If he once again fails (seems far more likely) then he'll struggle to make category 1 status.

[wxwatcher1999]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

['CaneFreak]

If this has already been mentioned, I apologize in advance...but I have been watching this upper level ridge over northern FL all day and it is now on its way west to park itself right over Isaac...this may be all it needs (in addition to slightly more time) to become a more significant hurricane...this may also help with the dry air entrainment issue because if a TC is NOT getting sheared, it will not readily take in as much of the ambient dry air...it becomes more resilient to fight off the dry air and fend for itself...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=shr&zoom=&time=

[Lane]

I caught the tail end of TWC talking about the latest microwave image, they said something like it may be looking better now than it has?

[mvtrucking]

Anyone else buying the east and north shift?

What east and north shift?

Exactly? I think the NHC has this locked in give or take 50 miles on either side of the final landfall.

[gboudx]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Dr. Frank? I saw it mentioned several pages back. Sounds to me like he was citing the GFS model, but I didn't see his comments. Did he assign any probability to his scenario?

[StormGuy]

I caught the tail end of TWC talking about the latest microwave image, they said something like it may be looking better now than it has?

I just saw that too. They said it looks like they can see a complete circle of showers around the center which might mean it's starting to intensify.