ATL: ISAAC - Models

[TheDreamTraveler]

hwrf 18z 36H



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I'm very skeptical that will verify, but we shall see.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

948 mb is a category 2. correct?

It's usually indicative of a strong category 3 or weak category 4 hurricane, depending on the circumstances.

[smw1981]

hmm. perhaps the hwrf is hinting that this will be a stronger storm if it misses SE La and hits Ms?

The HWRF has consistently had Isaac as a stronger storm, but that doesn't mean too terribly much because it has a history of overestimating intensity. I wouldn't worry about it too much..

[deltadog03]

Isaac steering map right now...



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[smw1981]

What exactly does that mean/show?

[Sabanic]

DD correct me if I'm wrong but looks to be a weakness between the two highs. Thus the reason Isaac has benn moving more NW than WNW. Any clue how long these conditions may stay this way?

Thanks

[deltadog03]

Yes, the weakness is clearly present....Thats why its moving NW to NNW with some N jogs.....

[thatwhichisnt]

DD correct me if I'm wrong but looks to be a weakness between the two highs. Thus the reason Isaac has benn moving more NW than WNW. Any clue how long these conditions may stay this way?

Thanks

Even if it keeps moving NW that should still put landfall at the NHC track.

[deltadog03]

DD correct me if I'm wrong but looks to be a weakness between the two highs. Thus the reason Isaac has benn moving more NW than WNW. Any clue how long these conditions may stay this way?

Thanks

Even if it keeps moving NW that should still put landfall at the NHC track.

Correct, BUT its also forecasted to turn a little north at some point as well....We shall see

[rockyman]

The NHC's 5pm track is now a "western outlier":

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Delta,
Isnt the ridge forecast to build in over the next 24hrs closing the gap so to speak, therefore slowing Isaac down even more as it nears the coast tomorrow

[deltadog03]

Delta,
Isnt the ridge forecast to build in over the next 24hrs closing the gap so to speak, therefore slowing Isaac down even more as it nears the coast tomorrow

It depends on which model you believe in....but, for the most part the weakness is still there, depends on how much or if at all it gets picked up...

[deltadog03]

The TVCN has shift a little EAST, to now near the LA/MS boarder...NHC usually*** follows that pretty closely, so my *guess* is that the track will shift a bit EAST tonight

ooops...lol I forgot how to spell and left out the F in shift.....sorry!

[smw1981]

Delta, what do YOU think is going to happen as far as track and intensity? You have been right all along (since 2 nights ago when you thought the GFS was too far west and the HWRF was overestimating intensity), and I really respect your opinion. Because of your accuracy thus far on this storm, I really want to know YOUR opinion on things. (I used to hang on to Derek Ortt's words because of his accuracy, but now that he's not here anymore, I think you have replaced him in my book!

[bella_may]

The NHC's 5pm track is now a "western outlier":

I believe there were only 2 models in mississippi earlier.

[capepoint]

The TVCN has poop a little EAST, to now near the LA/MS boarder...NHC usually*** follows that pretty closely, so my *guess* is that the track will shift a bit EAST tonight

I called that exact spot earlier today.....and still think thats where its headed.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[deltadog03]

Delta, what do YOU think is going to happen as far as track and intensity? You have been right all along (since 2 nights ago when you thought the GFS was too far west and the HWRF was overestimating intensity), and I really respect your opinion. Because of your accuracy thus far on this storm, I really want to know YOUR opinion on things. (I used to hang on to Derek Ortt's words because of his accuracy, but now that he's not here anymore, I think you have replaced him in my book!

Thank You for your kind words. I appreciate it that! My thoughts are a Biloxi to Gulfport landfall with it moving inland slowly either from the S moving N or NNE.. Still depends on how much it get into the weakness. I would say a Cat 1 is likely.

[gboudx]

The TVCN has poop a little EAST, to now near the LA/MS boarder...NHC usually*** follows that pretty closely, so my *guess* is that the track will shift a bit EAST tonight

La's coastline is so complex with bayous, lakes and bays, that any shift east could have large impacts in specific areas. Instead of almost direct surge going into Barataria Bay, as would happen if the NHC path verified now, the surge wouldn't be as high and winds more from the north on the westbank.

[Dean4Storms]

I think this is ultimately closer to Mobile, AL. I just don't see the NW wobbles thus far getting it back toward NOrleans. Isaac has run east of track all day, at some point you have to step back and say something is wrong here.

[Sabanic]

I'm with ya smw, but can't say I like that forecast.

Delta, what do YOU think is going to happen as far as track and intensity? You have been right all along (since 2 nights ago when you thought the GFS was too far west and the HWRF was overestimating intensity), and I really respect your opinion. Because of your accuracy thus far on this storm, I really want to know YOUR opinion on things. (I used to hang on to Derek Ortt's words because of his accuracy, but now that he's not here anymore, I think you have replaced him in my book!

Thank You for your kind words. I appreciate it that! My thoughts are a Biloxi to Gulfport landfall with it moving inland slowly either from the S moving N or NNE.. Still depends on how much it get into the weakness. I would say a Cat 1 is likely.

[smw1981]

Delta, what do YOU think is going to happen as far as track and intensity? You have been right all along (since 2 nights ago when you thought the GFS was too far west and the HWRF was overestimating intensity), and I really respect your opinion. Because of your accuracy thus far on this storm, I really want to know YOUR opinion on things. (I used to hang on to Derek Ortt's words because of his accuracy, but now that he's not here anymore, I think you have replaced him in my book!

Thank You for your kind words. I appreciate it that! My thoughts are a Biloxi to Gulfport landfall with it moving inland slowly either from the S moving N or NNE.. Still depends on how much it get into the weakness. I would say a Cat 1 is likely.

Thanks! That is actually exactly where you predicted in the middle of the night a few nights ago (maybe Saturday night while I was up waiting for the EURO? I can't remember now!). Thank you for all of time/energy spent on this board, sometimes answering the same questions over and over again..it really does help us amateurs out a lot more than you can imagine!