ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormreader]

Big blowup of convection exactly where he needed it. looks like he's making one last run at building a solid eyewall. If he can pull it together tonight then he still has a decent chance at category 2. If he once again fails (seems far more likely) then he'll struggle to make category 1 status.

Weather Channel Met (the new guy) said that Isaac is showing healthier signs tonight. Referred to microwave imagery showing a rounded area of moisture which appears to be building around the center. Also referred to long range radar, which at that distance the radar beam reaches the storm which is well beneath the horizon, and the beam actually is shooting into higher altitudes of the storm core. So your seeing a wrap around effect of showers at a higher altitude (where the llc should be). Calls it a sign of possible significant intensification in the short term. Will see.

[midnight8]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Do you have a link to the story or a video?

[capepoint]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

always a chance of anything. but i think chances of texas landfall are very very slim, in fact i would say less than 1 %.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tropicwatch]

This was mentioned on the model thread but I thought worth mentioning here. This depicts the current steering flow and might be why we have see what appears to be more of a nnw motion.



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[mvtrucking]

Hurricane Hunter was talking with TWC a bit ago and the pilot (or crew member) said this is the 1st night in several that the storm is"very close to
strengthening and he could see it happening at any time, and thinks it will"

[BigB0882]

I've heard these "he is looking like he is ready to intensify" posts a thousand times it seems. I am not knocking anyone, I know I have fallen for it many many times myself. I just give up and if it intensifies then fine but I am so over checking to see if this thing is ever going to do anything.

[jinftl]

Every hour that Isaac doesn't really start to ramp up the winds, the less ocean real estate that can be churned up more by higher winds and become part of an already serious storm surge threat. Isaac has shown he has no experience rapidly doing anything and it is doubtful that the atmospheric conditions will all of a sudden promote RI. Slow intensification is most likely.

quote="StormGuy"]

I caught the tail end of TWC talking about the latest microwave image, they said something like it may be looking better now than it has?

I just saw that too. They said it looks like they can see a complete circle of showers around the center which might mean it's starting to intensify.[/quote]

[BigB0882]

By the way, there is a crazy big ring around the moon tonight. I heard others mention the same thing about the sun today although I did not see it for myself. What does that mean? Is it an ominous sign or a sign that we shall all be spared.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Here's the HRRR currently:





Then the HRRR at 3am:



The ramp up in intensity sure is taking its time.

[wxwatcher1999]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Do you have a link to the story or a video?

Dr. Neil Frank

[stormreader]

I've heard these "he is looking like he is ready to intensify" posts a thousand times it seems. I am not knocking anyone, I know I have fallen for it many many times myself. I just give up and if it intensifies then fine but I am so over checking to see if this thing is ever going to do anything.

I know, these storms can be so tiring and time consuming. But you just can't assume its over 'til its over.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looking at latest sat loops, he sure seems like he is trying his hardest to try and wrap convection around the eastern and northern sides. Doesnt seem to moving all that fat either. Maybe his final attempt to become something more....

[crimi481]

Looks actually better I agree with Brian
On this WV Loop - see how :
1) East and south sides moistened up - dry air over Yucatan fading as well
2) Pesky ULL to the west - has stopped puuling on center -allowing banding to start on east and S. side
But it pulled TS left of the Center
3) Look at how Isaac over all struture expands with each frame
4) High building over storm

Isaac so large - it needs to breath take another go at it
Not sure -but slght chance may loop around in Gulf - stall - or landfall more in N.E. Gulf area

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/index ... thod=flash

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[midnight8]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Do you have a link to the story or a video?

Dr. Neil Frank

That is the one that the video kept crashing my computer. Oh Well.

[KimmieLa]

I've heard these "he is looking like he is ready to intensify" posts a thousand times it seems. I am not knocking anyone, I know I have fallen for it many many times myself. I just give up and if it intensifies then fine but I am so over checking to see if this thing is ever going to do anything.

Getting weary. TWC keeps saying it will be a hurricane soon. Ready for this to be over and done.

Not a met, seek professional help.

[SouthDadeFish]

Here is an awesome 4 panel WV comparison. You can really see all the dry air in the mid levels here:



Source:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/sounder.asp

[northjaxpro]

FYI, there is an excellent alternative for those who are growing weary of TWC coverage. DirecTV is providing a public information service with wall to wall coverage from all of the major television stations in the Greater New Orleans area for the entire event. For those with DirecTV satellite service, tune into Channel 349 where it is labeled Tropical Storm Isaac Information Channel. I have been watching it all evening and I like to get the local perspective of what is occuring in New Orleans and surrounding areas and their preparations as Isaac moves into that area.

[ROCK]

a very respected houston meteorologist said he still isnt convinced on a eastern louisiana landfall a just a small turn and texas could be in the path...any thoughts?

Do you have a link to the story or a video?

Dr. Neil Frank

Neil said that....oh man...I am sure he has thought of this stalling and or drifting west along the coast but at that point it will probably a dried up TD. Not likely IMO...guidance suggests otherwise but he is a former director...IN fact we have 2 former directors working for our news stations....we are safe as kittens here...

[wxwatcher1999]

whats the weakness look like?....is it starting to close up?

[ROCK]

it has slowed way down....I would have thought it was supposed to do that right on the coast and drift north waiting to be picked up....That trof to the NE is not enough to take it out....interesting