WPAC: BOLAVEN - Extratropical

[Meow]

looks like landfall will be north korea but as a weakening storm! the storm surge in this region must be phenomenal combined with heavy downpour and strong winds...

Poor North Korea, because of Bolaven and Kim’s dynasty.

[Meow]

Bolaven continued weakening and affecting South Korea.



TY 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 27 August 2012

<Analyses at 27/18 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N32°50'(32.8°)
E125°25'(125.4°)
Direction and speed of movement N 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E330km(180NM)
W220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E650km(350NM)
W560km(300NM)

<Forecast for 28/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N36°30'(36.5°)
E125°05'(125.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(19kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area E390km(210NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N41°00'(41.0°)
E126°05'(126.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 45km/h(23kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)
Storm warning area E330km(180NM)
W260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 29/18 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N48°30'(48.5°)
E132°40'(132.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 986hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

[Meow]

Maybe Bolaven is becoming extratropical.

[Meow]

Korean people cannot see the sun on August 28.



WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 032
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 33.0N 125.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.0N 125.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 36.8N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 41.1N 126.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 45.2N 129.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 33.9N 125.0E.
TYPHOON 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 16 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z
IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[phwxenthusiast]

the island of Heuksando near Mokpo is reporting wind speeds of around 100kph with a pressure of 962hPa... this is still packing some punch...

[Meow]

Now a STS, Bolaven will make landfall over North Korea soon.



STS 1215 (BOLAVEN)
Issued at 07:10 UTC, 28 August 2012

<Analyses at 28/06 UTC>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N36°35'(36.6°)
E124°40'(124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more E280km(150NM)
W220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W440km(240NM)

<Forecast for 28/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N40°55'(40.9°)
E126°35'(126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement N 35km/h(20kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area E330km(180NM)
W280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 29/06 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N45°05'(45.1°)
E129°20'(129.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 45km/h(25kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 160km(85NM)

<Forecast for 30/06 UTC>
Intensity -
LOW
Center position of probability circle N51°00'(51.0°)
E138°20'(138.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 40km/h(22kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed 20m/s(40kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30m/s(60kt)
Radius of probability circle 330km(180NM)

[Meow]

This severe tropical storm looks so extratropical...

[euro6208]

Northwest of Seoul and making landfall over north korea...

WTPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 035
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 38.9N 124.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 38.9N 124.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 43.1N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 46.7N 130.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 39.9N 125.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM NORTHWEST
OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 282100Z, 290300Z AND 290900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 15W (TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

WDPN32 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING
NR 35//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM
NORTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS EXPANDING
AND DETERIORATING AS STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SURROUND THE SYSTEM. A
280912Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE CLEARLY SHOWS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP
CONVECTION RESIDES OVERLAND AND IS SHEARED NORTH-NORTHEAST FROM THE
LLCC DUE TO STRONG (30-40 KNOT) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE
EXPOSED LLCC IN EIR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LESS THAN TEN DEGREES EAST OF
THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ABOUT TEN DEGREES NORTHWEST OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANTICYCLONIC CENTER LOCATED OVER OKINAWA. TS
16W IS CURRENTLY STEERING IN BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STR AND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEEP THE LONGWAVE TROUGH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
NORTHERN KOREA DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS AND HAVE COMPLETED EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSISTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST
BASED ON THE TIGHT ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE.//
NNNN

[Meow]

The JMA still mentioned Bolaven as a tropical storm in Heilongjiang.

Is this really tropical?

[euro6208]

FINAL WARNING...

WTPN32 PGTW 282100 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 16W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 036A CORRECTED
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 41.6N 126.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 29 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 41.6N 126.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 46.2N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 49.3N 134.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
282100Z POSITION NEAR 42.8N 127.1E.
TROPICAL STORM 16W(BOLAVEN) HAS NOW FULLY TRANSITIONED TO AN
EXTRATROPICAL STORM AND IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM NORTH OF
SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, AND HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 29 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM HAS BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS IT HAS TRACKED OVER LAND. THERE IS A
NOTICEABLE DRY SLOT IN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, WITH
CONVECTION MOVING TO THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM, AND INCREASING
TRANSLATION SPEEDS, ALL INDICATIVE OF A STORM THAT HAS BECOME AN
EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY
THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 15W
(TEMBIN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. JUSTIFICATION
FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED FIRST SENTENCE TO REFLECT TRANSITION OF TS
16W TO AN EXTRATROPICAL STORM.//
NNNN