ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

['CaneFreak]

I know an eye when I see one and that IS an eye

[tailgater]

This was posted in the global model runs thread. Looks like GFS wants a do-over on this one 300 hours out
http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/9318/newstorm3.gif
(this is the wave currently near the CVI)

Thanks, I needed that.

[bonjourno]

It's probably an illusion between those outer bands and me being awake all night, but the damn thing looks like it's moving in reverse on that loop! (S/SSW)

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Can someone post a nice graphic of where the subtropical high is/would be that will affect Isaac?

[Solaris]

ISAAC...it looks like it's finally ready to 'go'...dry air is diminishing in the northern quadrant...conditions favorable now for further strengthening

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Big joe just tweeted: BigJoeBastardi: 977 pressure 78 kt flt level and an eye.
this is ( has been for about 12 hrs) a hurricane. 2.9 out of 10 on my scale http://t.co/15nE6Bjk

BOOM. This is literally the first time i ever found the satellite imagery section on the noaa site lol. *Pats self on back*

[bonjourno]

Well great, now he's gone and got a hole through the middle of him!

This system just continues to dissapoint *sigh*

</sarcasm>

[Cyclenall]

I did a double-take on the latest sat image. Maybe Isaac is actually doing something for once...

Same here, a few frames to work with but I was wondering on that last frame (now 4 frames ago) if real Rapid Intensification was about to start (didn't think I'd post that just hours after that rant ) because an eye just came out of nowhere and two rapidly swirling bursts of convection that are very deep. When that happens, it really takes off. The big concern is that top part, dry air doing something because the convection at the top of the new eye is pretty weak. If that can be overcome, it will explode now. I would say this is one of the fastest eye poppers I've seen in years, reminds me of Katrina's eye popper. Every time I dis a system like this, it then takes off .

I think the rapid refresh GOES would be useful here...

[Lane]

I know an eye when I see one and that IS an eye

There have been plenty of illusions, however
that is an eye. Good morning Hurricane Isaac.

[Stormtrack03]

I know an eye when I see one and that IS an eye

There have been plenty of illusions, however
that is an eye. Good morning Hurricane Isaac.

Just remember, its not a hurricane till NHC says it is. Recon data still not showing it as of this morning.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

So if this eye holds together, we could see RI. Not exactly a good thing but Isaac's winds could start catching up to his pressure now.

[fasterdisaster]

I know an eye when I see one and that IS an eye

There have been plenty of illusions, however
that is an eye. Good morning Hurricane Isaac.

Just remember, its not a hurricane till NHC says it is. Recon data still not showing it as of this morning.

To be fair I don't think they've swept the center since the eye popped out.

[funster]

Looks like an eye on visible too, with a breach on the north side. Eyesaac has an i

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[HurrMark]

Well...there's some kind of hole in there. Dry air intrusion?

We are going to probably hear tons of stories of "it could have been worse" and "dodged a bullet" over the next few days. I think the real story should be that despite all the technology and despite that we are getting tracks on the nose most of the time, we are still in the primitive pre-Windows 95 days when it comes to intensity forecasting. The skill is pretty much the same as it was since 1990. If you were to ask any meteorologist three days ago given these conditions what the storm would be at this point, I doubt a soul would say a 70 mph TS. Yes, maybe not a Cat 4 and maybe not a cat 3, but this clearly shows the science has a long way to go...I think intensity forecasting is probably just as important than track forecasting because even though 100 miles can make a difference, 15 mph can make a world of difference as well.

[bonjourno]

Not quite sure how well that eye's going to hold up.

Loop

[Stormtrack03]

Well...there's some kind of hole in there. Dry air intrusion?

We are going to probably hear tons of stories of "it could have been worse" and "dodged a bullet" over the next few days. I think the real story should be that despite all the technology and despite that we are getting tracks on the nose most of the time, we are still in the primitive pre-Windows 95 days when it comes to intensity forecasting. The skill is pretty much the same as it was since 1990. If you were to ask any meteorologist three days ago given these conditions what the storm would be at this point, I doubt a soul would say a 70 mph TS. Yes, maybe not a Cat 4 and maybe not a cat 3, but this clearly shows the science has a long way to go...I think intensity forecasting is probably just as important than track forecasting because even though 100 miles can make a difference, 15 mph can make a world of difference as well.

I couldn't agree more with you.

[tailgater]

Even if this isn't a true eye, the core is improving and will probably drop the pressure even more.

What's the lowest pressure recorded for a TS?

[Rail Dawg]

I've been doing weather for over 30 years and I'm impressed with all of you. The science has come a long way and there's still a long way to go but the one thing I'm impressed with is the rapid sharing of knowledge. We didn't have that when I was hand-drawing isobars 30 years ago!

[HurrMark]

Even if this isn't a true eye, the core is improving and will probably drop the pressure even more.

What's the lowest pressure recorded for a TS?

Irene was 965 when it made landfall in NYC as a T. S. last year.

[Lane]

And now it is gone, must have been dry air. Damn Isaac, you finally fooled me too.