ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

The links for 1 minute visible images.

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php

Flash Required: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

[GCANE]

ULL has pulled way into Mexico now and the anti-cyclone is directly over the LLC.

It is very broad as well, shear still analyzed at 1.6 m/s

[Sabanic]

I'm not a wobble watcher, and know how these storms move, and how they appear to be moving for the most part, but sure looks like Isaac is moving due west the last couple of frames. What do you guys & gals think?

[tolakram]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the latest NOAA pass and drawing a circle around the wind shift, appears to be back on NW heading.

[rainstorm]

I'm not a wobble watcher, and know how these storms move, and how they appear to be moving for the most part, but sure looks like Isaac is moving due west the last couple of frames. What do you guys & gals think?

could be right. the models have kept thinking isaac would be much stronger by now. it isnt so it might be riding the low level flow.

[Kory]

I'm not a wobble watcher, and know how these storms move, and how they appear to be moving for the most part, but sure looks like Isaac is moving due west the last couple of frames. What do you guys & gals think?

What are you looking at? Satellite isn't too reliable to look at since the storms are spinning around, it can cause it to appear to be moving certain directions that it isn't. I'm looking at radar which is showing a continuing NW track.

[Hogweed]

Time: 11:34:00Z
Coordinates: 27.9333N 88.4667W
Acft. Static Air Press: 843.3 mb (~ 24.90 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 1,238 meters (~ 4,062 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 968.4 mb (~ 28.60 inHg)
D-value: -
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s): From 17° at 32 knots (From the NNE at ~ 36.8 mph)
Air Temp: 20.0°C* (~ 68.0°F*)
Dew Pt: 20.0°C* (~ 68.0°F*)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 33 knots (~ 37.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Rain Rate: 1 mm/hr (~ 0.04 in/hr)
(*) Denotes suspect data

968.4 extrap. No surface confirmation yet though

[Sabanic]

Thanks for the verification guys. Early morning eye-balls playing tricks on me I guess.

[gboudx]

I'm not a wobble watcher, and know how these storms move, and how they appear to be moving for the most part, but sure looks like Isaac is moving due west the last couple of frames. What do you guys & gals think?

The NHC mentioned the west motion in the last update. They don't expect it to continue.

CENTER FIXES FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS WOBBLED
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD COURSE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS IS
BELIEVED TO BE TEMPORARY...HOWEVER...AND THE LONGER-TERM MOTION
ESTIMATE IS ABOUT 305/10.

[tolakram]

Recon is in the system, no need to guess direction from satellite since the overhead shot is going to show all kinds of odd motions.

Early Visible

[rainstorm]

968 and still a TS? thats almost a cat3 pressure. its unbelievable it can be at 28.60 and be a TS.

[fasterdisaster]

If that 968 mb pressure holds up, then RI has begun. The winds just have to adjust soon.

-----------------
Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[WeatherGuesser]

7:00 AM CDT Tue Aug 28
Location: 27.8°N 88.2°W
Moving: NW at 7 mph
Min pressure: 976 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...

For all those saying 'it's a Hurricane, it's a Hurricane"

No, it isn't.



Yet.

[tolakram]

If that 968 mb pressure holds up, then RI has begun. The winds just have to adjust soon.

-----------------
Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

This is from the NOAA flight, and typically not a reliable reading.

[rainstorm]

even 976 is a cat2

[Chris_in_Tampa]

AF is the one that found the low reading. (edit: extrap reading, waiting for sonde) NOAA did extrap 981mb from 8 thousand feet.

[CronkPSU]

slowed down to 7 mph...

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ISAAC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST...

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.2W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

[TeamPlayersBlue]

slowed down to 7 mph...

that was the main thing that caught my eye as well

[Stormlover2012]

Yeah 7 mph catches my eye also, euro run could come true with the more west trend