ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[capepoint]

I would like to make a motion that JB quotes are never allowed ever again.......

[PTPatrick]

Amazing at the dry air on this WV loop...The north side so far on radar is barely trying to fill in and wuth that its gng to continue to struggle. I wonder if this will be a "dry" hurricane. Fredric and Elena and Lilli all were(keep in mind this is all relative)...models all produce Chios rain amount....but I wonder.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

High Values NOAA HDOB 30
Flight (30s): 77 knots
Flight (10s): 79 knots
SFMR Surface (10s): 63 knots (rain rate ~ 0.91 in/hr)

[KBBOCA]

Here is millibars table with comparisons to windspeed:

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/StephanieStern.shtml

From Joe Bastardi this morning:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
HD wind obs are 80 g 86 kts pressure is 976 this supports 85-90mph storm. IS NHC trying to say if this were "Gordon" its not hurricane?

I am quickly losing whatever respect I might have had for Joe Bastardi. His tweets have been over the top with this storm.
1) constant calling for east coast landfall when models and NHC track had shown Gulf track for days.
2) then hyping this as a probable cat 2 - 3 monster
3) then making the as bad as Katrina comparison yesterday
4) now the NHC bashing.

This man is an embarrassment to all hard working mets who try and help people rather than make a name for themselves.

[Rant off]. Sorry, but it needed to be said.

[wxwatcher1999]

Saved 30 frame radar loop from New Orleans

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE
[ img]http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/5509/zzwunidsmap.gif[/img]

I'm still learning so don't bash me but from this loop what would you say the motion is?

[Sanibel]

It's all about the orientation of the pressure gradient. Lacking an eyewall, the pressure gradient is spread out over a large distance. RMW is about 60nm now, so no tight center. Take a tornado with a 970mb pressure and it could produce winds of 150 mph. Spread that same gradient out over 100nm and you have a TS. Same amount of energy but the energy is not concentrated on a narrow path.

There's probably some broadscale horizontal atmospheric dynamics involved. Whether they have to do with a Nino year is beyond me.

[tolakram]

Saved 30 frame radar loop from New Orleans

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE
[ img]http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/5509/zzwunidsmap.gif[/img]

I'm still learning so don't bash me but from this loop what would you say the motion is?

Please do not quote the image. Put some spaces in the image tag, as I did, so it doesn't show up.

I'm not going to guess on motion, it is going to wobble and stair step around and the exact landfall location will be nearly impossible to guess.

[capepoint]

i understand what you are saying but if this comes inland at 976 or lower and they are still calling it a TS i bet it does high end cat1 damage.[/quote]



surge, probably, because the lower pressure will allow a larger water mound. Wind damage, nope. 70 mph winds are going to do 70 mph wind damage, no matter the pressure.- IMO

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Latest IR

[ img]http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/5750/zztempe.jpg[/img]

According to that IR, precipitation on the south side is insane!

[wxwatcher1999]

Saved 30 frame radar loop from New Orleans

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE
[ img]http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/5509/zzwunidsmap.gif[/img]

I'm still learning so don't bash me but from this loop what would you say the motion is?

Please do not quote the image. Put some spaces in the image tag, as I did, so it doesn't show up.

I'm not going to guess on motion, it is going to wobble and stair step around and the exact landfall location will be nearly impossible to guess.

Ok sorry..and thank you for your response

[mpic]

Does the slow down have much significance as to how far west it will drift or are we still looking about the same as last night?

[Sanibel]

This is the cyclo-dynamic opposite of Charley.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Convection is wrapping around to the north now. Wonder if this 'eye' is going to survive

[Portastorm]

Here is millibars table with comparisons to windspeed:

http://hypertextbook.com/facts/StephanieStern.shtml

From Joe Bastardi this morning:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi
HD wind obs are 80 g 86 kts pressure is 976 this supports 85-90mph storm. IS NHC trying to say if this were "Gordon" its not hurricane?

I am quickly losing whatever respect I might have had for Joe Bastardi. His tweets have been over the top with this storm.
1) constant calling for east coast landfall when models and NHC track had shown Gulf track for days.
2) then hyping this as a probable cat 2 - 3 monster
3) then making the as bad as Katrina comparison yesterday
4) now the NHC bashing.

This man is an embarrassment to all hard working mets who try and help people rather than make a name for themselves.

[Rant off]. Sorry, but it needed to be said.

While personally I agree with you ... you know the rules here about bashing pro mets or organizations. Please don't or we mods will have to start issuing warnings.

[drezee]

Ok, I have been around for a while. Since when has the NHC only upgrade systems based on the SFMR? In that case, it changes the overall numbers moving forward. If it were 2005, this would be a hurricane. Seems inconsistent...

[Chris_in_Tampa]

High Values AF HDOB 19
Flight (30s): 84 knots
Flight (10s): 85 knots
SFMR Surface (10s): 54 knots

[Chris_in_Tampa]

(accidentally posted HDOB here)

[wxman57]

Probably should shy away from the JB discussion, folks. As for Isaac, new HRD wind analysis is out:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

[tolakram]

Ok, I have been around for a while. Since when has the NHC only upgrade systems based on the SFMR? In that case, it changes the overall numbers moving forward. If it were 2005, this would be a hurricane. Seems inconsistent...

Are you certain this is an accurate statement? I've seen pro-mets here agreeing that no observation supported hurricane force winds until about 30 minutes ago. I don't think any comparison to 7 years ago applies.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Probably should shy away from the JB discussion, folks. As for Isaac, new HRD wind analysis is out:

ftp://ftp.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/pub/hwind/O ... tour08.png

Is this showing that it still has 2 vorts?