ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

wxman57, correct me if I am wrong please. But the url you posted is NOT supporting 65kt winds is that correct? So we will continue to see TS Isaac for the time being?

That was an observation from 1030Z (5:30am CDT). Current evidence supports 65kts or more.

Here's a GOES-14 rapidscan loop of an eye forming:
ftp://ftp.ssec.wisc.edu/ABI/HD/SRSOR/80 ... _182_X.gif

[GCANE]

Looks like a rotating hot tower was fired off from a pool of 3500 CAPE air to the NE of the LLC.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

A number of overshooting tops are firing off now very close to the LLC; could be in fact VHTs.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... .100pc.jpg

http://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/c ... 27&lon=-88

Last look, core was 3C; should heat up more.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 1208280139

Moving that ULL away from him did wonders to uncork him.

[thatwhichisnt]

[img ]http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/09L/imagery/rbtop-animated.gif[/img]

Looking better...

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?

[mutley]

1 minute flash loop, for those who missed it before.

Wow! Thanks! Awesome loop.

[mpic]

I am not liking this and getting a little concerned. Please tell me that this storm is still going in before Texas.

[HurrMark]

Yup...finally getting its act together. I think it is too far up in the Gulf to do serious strengthening, but let's see how this plays out.

[thatwhichisnt]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I am not liking this and getting a little concerned. Please tell me that this storm is still going in before Texas.

I see no reason for you to be. The NHC won't be that far off this close to landfall.

[cigtyme]

[/quote]Over 7,000 posts discussing Isaac's projected moves by some of the best and he's still baffling many. Thanks to all of the pro's and amateurs alike who have contributed to this board. We all learn so much.[/quote]

From Betsy to Gustav and many others, me and my family have depended on Mets. For this i thank all of you, from the grease pencils of the 60's, to the computer mets of the present. Every storm is like a fingerprint. It is unique. That is why no matter how much we learn, we realize there is so much we really do not know.

Once again thanks to all the pro mets(and amateur to some degree), Nash Roberts got us thru Betsy, now you guys are getting me thru Issac.

Sorry for off topic, i just wanted to tell them thanks.

[rainstorm]

Can someone please explain to me how Isaac won't make landfall until tomorrow? I'm very confused since the center is very close to Louisiana.

if it keeps moving in the direction of the radar it wont landfall for awhile. euro could be right.

[wxwatcher1999]

So at this point is isaac tracking on the west side of the cone?

[chargurl]

Looks like alot of dry air wrapping into it on the north and west side.

[rtd2]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_US/anim16ir.html

[cpdaman]

isaac seems like it has a very elongated egg shaped eye.

an hour or two ago it look'd like eye was at 27.8 n (recon confirm'd) i thought center there, (u can see what i'm talking about in frames 945 to 1145 (utc time)
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

then watching the last 2 frames ...it then looks like the N side of convection wrapped around another "eye" about 30 miles NNW..28.2 N...this can be seen clearly in latest loop of even WV. anyone get what i'm saying. (1245 utc) http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

although i think the eye is now possibly tilted NNW-SSE with the NNW part NOW very defined and a elongated SSE side that looks like it is constantly running from dry air suck'd in on the W/NW sides now...I think earlier (945-1145 utc it was this Now southern part of elongated eye that was more defined and why the center was 27.8) .i would think the eye needs to tighten for any sort of increase in surface winds beyond a 75-80 mph hurricane (not that we want that) but just my opinion, which could be out to lunch. i think we need this egg shape'd eye to rotate a bit and look to tighten, which i'm not sure it can do while battling some dry air.

DISCALIMER i'm a moron and this is not an official forecast

[mpic]

Can someone please explain to me how Isaac won't make landfall until tomorrow? I'm very confused since the center is very close to Louisiana.

if it keeps moving in the direction of the radar it wont landfall for awhile. euro could be right.

Thanks. Live in a mobile home and don't want to be caught in another mass exodus like 2005.

[WeatherGuesser]

This is NOT the direction you want for the storm surge.

[otowntiger]

It almost looks like it is going to miss NO to the south

which is obviously worse than if it hit N.O. head on, that is unless it misses N.O. by a LOT and it still looks like it will come in at or just west in my opinion. A landfall south and west of N.O. is what will be the worst for storm surge and as far as being on the 'dirty' side with higher wind and rain and threat of tornadoes. Not to mention it also puts the capital city of BR in the cross hairs for the same reasons except that obviously storm surge is not a problem there.

[Time_Zone]

Looks like alot of dry air wrapping into it on the north and west side.

I'm noticing that too. Expecting cloud tops to warm and for it to once again fall apart.

[mutley]

This is NOT the direction you want for the storm surge.

And while seeming to strengthen, forming an eye, and crawling along towards shore.

[drezee]

Rick Knabb just said no upgrade live on TWC even with the current data. He said it is still close, but no dice. Interesting...