ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7101 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:09 am

Impressive rotating hot tower firing off south of the LLC

http://tropicalatlantic.com/satellite/c ... 27&lon=-88
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#7102 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:09 am

Isaac continues to have the same issues, like a broken record. Dry air entrainment, and he doesn't look any better, really, than he did 9 hours ago.

He's just about in range of the long range radar out of KLIX, but at that range the radar is seeing far up into the atmosphere, so it's really not a good estimation of what's happening at the surface.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7103 Postby otowntiger » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:09 am

tolakram wrote:Latest IR. Dry slot again making it near center, and overall cloud tops have warmed since earlier this morning.

Wow, that didn't take long. It continues to be the story of this storm. ebb and flow, up and down. It seems just when you are ready to finally proclaim that its taking the next step, then bam! - down again. This time will the winds stay high enough between advisories to upgrade? eyewall structure and convection didn't seem to sustain from one satellite frame to the other.
Last edited by otowntiger on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#7104 Postby cpdaman » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:11 am

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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7105 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:16 am

Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?
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#7106 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:18 am

Can't let down the guard, yes? The convection on the south side of this system is impressive, especially with those hot towers firing. I've said this all along, but he's got to wrap that convection all the way around and keep it there. Still a possibility, but he's going to have to hang out for awhile in the Gulf and stop sucking in dry air to make it happen. Somehow I don't see him shutting out the dry air.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7107 Postby mpic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:20 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?


I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.
Last edited by mpic on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7108 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:22 am

The reduction ratio was more like .72 according to the previous 99mph Flight Level wind and 72mph surface wind.


I think this has something to do with GW dynamics but this obviously isn't the place or time.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7109 Postby capepoint » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:24 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?


Entirely possible, but it may wrap around before then. Biggest danger with storms being stronger on the back side is that people let down their guard thinking the back half wont be a bad as the front, and then get caught outside and clobbered. Irene last year in NC was a classic example of this, back half was far worse than front.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7110 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:25 am

mpic wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?


I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.


It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7111 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:30 am

My guess is a weird atmospheric condition is happening where the pressure is dropping but because of the wide nature of the system it is able to pull in more dry air and continue to trade-off pressure strengthening for a leveling of windspeed. The pressure drops are allowing it to become a bigger, drier storm of the same intensity. Probably a dynamic only possible in the limited Vertical Instability scenario WX57 pointed-out.

This is why cyclone prediction is a humiliating craft.
Last edited by Sanibel on Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:32 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#7112 Postby drezee » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:30 am

Time_Zone wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:86 kt at that level = 69 kt at the surface. The 70 kt dropsonde also suggests that is a reasonable estimate.


Yep. no doubt about it this thing is a hurricane right now.

The NOAA plane who had the 70kt winds on the Drop. Says 58kt winds at the surface...still saying no cane. The NHC is saying it was an spot wind per Rick Knabb. Not representative of the actual strength of the system.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7113 Postby capepoint » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:31 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
mpic wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?


I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.


It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.


Correct. It's not a wave, just a relatively fast rise in water height. There may be wind-driven waves on top of the surge, and thats what does structural damage other than just soaking everything. Also, does not have to tear anything up. Just flooding into a house will require ducting to be removed and cleaned, and walls to be torn out to remove wet insulation and sheetrock. Otherwise, you get mold growth.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7114 Postby mpic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:32 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:
mpic wrote:
WilmingtonSandbar wrote:Question. With the strongest rains on the south side of the storm, is this more favorable conditions at landfall? What I mean is, there is comparatively light rain on the front side of the storm versus the back side. Won't this mean that the main concern on the front side of the storm is going to be the surge, and when the main rain gets to shore offshore winds should be pushing the surge back out?


I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.


It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.


Correct, not like a tidal wave, but my feeble attempt to say that once that amount of water comes in, going back out won't help what damage is already done. Sorry, not good with words.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7115 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:32 am

1min loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

You can almost see the center. Dry air has really eroded things.

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7116 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:33 am

I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.[/quote]

It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.[/quote]

Correct, not like a tidal wave, but my feeble attempt to say that once that amount of water comes in, going back out won't help what damage is already done. Sorry, not good with words.[/quote]

I got ya now.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7117 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:34 am

I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.[/quote]

It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.[/quote]

Correct. It's not a wave, just a relatively fast rise in water height. There may be wind-driven waves on top of the surge, and thats what does structural damage other than just soaking everything. Also, does not have to tear anything up. Just flooding into a house will require ducting to be removed and cleaned, and walls to be torn out to remove wet insulation and sheetrock. Otherwise, you get mold growth.[/quote]

I guess i wasn't taking into consideration that storm surge damage would not be affected by rain amounts when dealing with coastal flooding.
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#7118 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:34 am

Sustained NE wind at 22 mph with gusts to 30 at the ye old home weather station. No significnt precipitation to report other than the stray passing shower.....yet.
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#7119 Postby nautical wheeler » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:37 am

Just too much dry air. I'm surprised this seemed to have gone unnoticed when the forecasts were for significant strengthening when it was down at the Keys. I would have thought this storm would have cycled most of the dry air around it out by now but apparently there is an endless supply around the storm.

It seems that the effects of the significant dry air and the ULL over the Yucatan were some slight misses with this system. I say that in the interest of understanding what dictates the intensity of these storms not to bash any organization.

Good thing for the coast, however I'm VERY concerned about the surge in SELA. Hard for me to believe people are still in Grand Isle.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#7120 Postby mpic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:37 am

WilmingtonSandbar wrote:I am no expert, but the initial surge is what causes the damages whether it goes back out or not.
Prob not the best analogy, but put a piece of paer in your bathtub and turn the water on full force. The paper will be washed away and the damage will be done even when the water goes back down the drain.


It was my understanding that surge is not like a tidal wave so to speak where it pushes a wave in all at once and then recedes, but it pushed in water over a long period of time and that is what causes most of the coastal flooding.[/quote]

Correct. It's not a wave, just a relatively fast rise in water height. There may be wind-driven waves on top of the surge, and thats what does structural damage other than just soaking everything. Also, does not have to tear anything up. Just flooding into a house will require ducting to be removed and cleaned, and walls to be torn out to remove wet insulation and sheetrock. Otherwise, you get mold growth.[/quote]

I guess i wasn't taking into consideration that storm surge damage would not be affected by rain amounts when dealing with coastal flooding.[/quote]

The combo of storm surge and massive amounts of rain make things even worse. Especially when the soil is already saturated.
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