ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

18hr on the NAM still offshore moving west

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


the weakness is there but is left behind

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

And if I recall correctly the nam was the model that was showing the weakness as being the strongest between the ridges yesterday.

its still there but not deep enough for Isaac to take it....gets left behind...

[ROCK]

27hr still offshore and approaching LA/TX border....

[N2FSU]

12Z NAM: 24hr

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

a little closer....

[N2FSU]

12Z NAM: 30hr

[deltadog03]

Well, well, well.....This is why Tropical forecasting is so hard...Its funny, the EURO nailed this track at days 5-7, then backed off, and the GFS in the shorter range has been amazingly accurate. I will say that the GFDL and HWRF for intensity were trash!! With all that said, I certainly learned some good lessons, which is really good and we should always learn from every TC....With all that said, this is prolly going to hit the coast and drift W or WNW.....Heads up for rain!!

[wxwatcher1999]

Does anyone think they will shift the cone left?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well, well, well.....This is why Tropical forecasting is so hard...Its funny, the EURO nailed this track at days 5-7, then backed off, and the GFS in the shorter range has been amazingly accurate. I will say that the GFDL and HWRF for intensity were trash!! With all that said, I certainly learned some good lessons, which is really good and we should always learn from every TC....With all that said, this is prolly going to hit the coast and drift W or WNW.....Heads up for rain!!

At least youre man enough to admit it. Much more than I can say for some others

[wxwatcher1999]

Well, well, well.....This is why Tropical forecasting is so hard...Its funny, the EURO nailed this track at days 5-7, then backed off, and the GFS in the shorter range has been amazingly accurate. I will say that the GFDL and HWRF for intensity were trash!! With all that said, I certainly learned some good lessons, which is really good and we should always learn from every TC....With all that said, this is prolly going to hit the coast and drift W or WNW.....Heads up for rain!!

At least youre man enough to admit it. Much more than I can say for some others

I agree..thank you very much

[wxwatcher1999]

What would the estimate of strength of storm when it got close to Texas from that model run?

[N2FSU]

12Z NAM: 42hr

[BigB0882]

The NAM has been all over the place. Please don't use it for TC position. You will get burned! Just look what it was showing 12 hours ago, probably even 6 hours ago, a very different movement in the short term was shown and that has not verified. It can't get position right only 6-12 hours out. Why trust it beyond that, either?

[ROCK]

Well, well, well.....This is why Tropical forecasting is so hard...Its funny, the EURO nailed this track at days 5-7, then backed off, and the GFS in the shorter range has been amazingly accurate. I will say that the GFDL and HWRF for intensity were trash!! With all that said, I certainly learned some good lessons, which is really good and we should always learn from every TC....With all that said, this is prolly going to hit the coast and drift W or WNW.....Heads up for rain!!

Yeah about 3am this morning I was calling you out and it wasnt for breakfast NAM still stalled at 36hrs offshore

[N2FSU]

Definitely not using it for TC position. Just one of many tools to look at overall synoptics.

[N2FSU]

12Z NAM: 51hr

[ROCK]

The NAM has been all over the place. Please don't use it for TC position. You will get burned! Just look what it was showing 12 hours ago, probably even 6 hours ago, a very different movement in the short term was shown and that has not verified. It can't get position right only 6-12 hours out. Why trust it beyond that, either?

so we throw out the GFS also and EURO for showing the same scenario?

[wxwatcher1999]

What time does the GFS run?

[ROCK]

What time does the GFS run?

few more hours...

[BigB0882]

The NAM has been all over the place. Please don't use it for TC position. You will get burned! Just look what it was showing 12 hours ago, probably even 6 hours ago, a very different movement in the short term was shown and that has not verified. It can't get position right only 6-12 hours out. Why trust it beyond that, either?

so we throw out the GFS also and EURO for showing the same scenario?

Not at all. I am just saying I wouldn't even use the NAM to give other models credibility. Seriously, it has been that bad. Look at synoptics then wait for the next run of a reputable model to see if this westward trend is indeed continuing in the models. I think it will, FWIW, the GFS has been keen on it for days now and the GFS has been the clear winner with Isaac from the get-go.

[southerngale]

What time does the GFS run?

few more hours...

In less than an hour.... which isn't all that much different than the amount of sleep I got last night!