ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Macrocane]

I smell a special advisory. Actually I'm surprised that Stewart didn't upgrade it to hurricane as he usually is not conservative.

[MGC]

Based on the Slidell radar, Isaac looks to be forming an eye and is slowly moving to the NW. Should become a hurricane soon. Still fighting dry air...The sun is shining here in Pass Christian right now but it is getting breezy. Hopefully the storm gets inland soon....MGC

[Macrocane]

Katrina and Isaac, two very different systems fortunately but just for comparison:

[ROCK]

I smell a special advisory. Actually I'm surprised that Stewart didn't upgrade it to hurricane as he usually is not conservative.

I am smelling it to....you cannot go against factual data...and I am also wondering why the disregard for the stall and west drift that the NAM,EURO and GFS are showing just offshore if it hasnt already begun.....how long will they keep this cone heading north....I am guessing the 12Z GFS then they will bite...

[cpdaman]

Latest, center clearly visible.

[img][/img]

Boy visible and WV sure do paint two different stories. He looks ragged on WV.

Was just about to post this. Core is in bad shape and is being split in two. The center looks like its wobbling all over the place.

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

this link shows it well. dry air penetrated the core when the eye couldn't close off and it looks like a disastah as far as isaac ever gettin the cane "look" which again is good news for many

[MONTEGUT_LA]

What I am worried about is that many people in the area of warning will not take Issac seriously as they hear in the news that is still a Tropical Storm.

In Terrebonne Parish, they are not taking this seriously enough. A lot of family and friends are riding this out in Houma, but many are staying in the low-lined areas of the parish, ie. Montegut, Dulac, Chauvin, etc.

I see a lot of dangerous rescuing being done soon. I did get word that in Montegut it is light rain and windy. Tonight, I'm sure it get rocky. If anyone is interested the local station has live feed of the conditions in Terrebonne and Lafourche parish.

http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/LiveFeed.aspx

[Karen124]

What I am worried about is that many people in the area of warning will not take Issac seriously as they hear in the news that is still a Tropical Storm.

In Terrebonne Parish, they are not taking this seriously enough. A lot of family and friends are riding this out in Houma, but many are staying in the low-lined areas of the parish, ie. Montegut, Dulac, Chauvin, etc.

I see a lot of dangerous rescuing being done soon. I did get word that in Montegut it is light rain and windy. Tonight, I'm sure it get rocky. If anyone is interested the local station has live feed of the conditions in Terrebonne and Lafourche parish.

http://www.kfolkjun.com/htv/LiveFeed.aspx

I've heard of a lot of people staying too since it's "just a tropical storm." Kind of wish they would have upgraded just so people would have taken it more seriously. Of course, then they probably would have said, "it's JUST a cat 1" etc.

[Janie2006]

Speaking of surge....Bienville Blvd on Dauphin Island is covered by 3 feet of water as reported by WKRG.

[gboudx]

I've heard of a lot of people staying too since it's "just a tropical storm." Kind of wish they would have upgraded just so people would have taken it more seriously. Of course, then they probably would have said, "it's JUST a cat 1" etc.

You know that's exactly what would happen. I heard a point that if you're a homeowner who gets damage, you really don't want this upgraded to a hurricane. Why? Because then the higher hurricane deductible kicks in on the homeowner's policy.

[SoupBone]

Do you think all of the dry air is a result from the epic drought in the midwest? Usually it is wetter up that way? I believe we combine that with, and I know people argue this, but all of the rain we have had over the last 4 weeks (huge amounts around 40 inches) cooling the gulf, as well as a lot more cloud cover keeping the water cooler. I know for a fact the water is a lot cooler this year than when we have had big hurricanes.

I really want to get an expert's take on this. Do we have enough recorded weather data from the dirty 30's (dust bowl era) to compare what effect it may be playing on Isaac? It's an interesting topic.

[Texashawk]

Probably the only time we can say we're grateful they don't make 'em like they used to.

Katrina and Isaac, two very different systems fortunately but just for comparison:

http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/3745 ... aisaac.png

[Blinhart]

Looks like this Tropical Storm is getting a Stadium Eye, which you usually see in a very powerful Hurricane. This storm is just confusing everyone. I think that the major thing is that the Ridge is building in sooner than expected, I think this will cause the storm to slow down even more and just meander along the Louisiana coast until the High gets far enough to the North and East of him to pull him up. So I think he will make landfall somewhere in between Intracoastal City and Sabine Pass as a high end Cat 2 hurricane.

[Jagno]

I've heard of a lot of people staying too since it's "just a tropical storm." Kind of wish they would have upgraded just so people would have taken it more seriously. Of course, then they probably would have said, "it's JUST a cat 1" etc.

You know that's exactly what would happen. I heard a point that if you're a homeowner who gets damage, you really don't want this upgraded to a hurricane. Why? Because then the higher hurricane deductible kicks in on the homeowner's policy.

Now that deductible is something I had never even thought of.....and I'm a home and business owner.

Rock, I don't understand how the more westward/wnw drifting isn't being acknowledged at all either, and the tracks continue for a due nw track. Maybe the experts feel that as it picks up ever so slightly that it will in fact self correct and be right on track in the longrun. I'm clueless.

[gboudx]

Do you think all of the dry air is a result from the epic drought in the midwest? Usually it is wetter up that way? I believe we combine that with, and I know people argue this, but all of the rain we have had over the last 4 weeks (huge amounts around 40 inches) cooling the gulf, as well as a lot more cloud cover keeping the water cooler. I know for a fact the water is a lot cooler this year than when we have had big hurricanes.

I really want to get an expert's take on this. Do we have enough recorded weather data from the dirty 30's (dust bowl era) to compare what effect it may be playing on Isaac? It's an interesting topic.

I'm not an expert, but if you look at a US dewpoint map, there is at least 60 degree dew points all the way up to Canada. However, I don't know if that's just a surface observation and/or how high those dewpoints extend upward.

[Texashawk]

Boy, recon is finding the center(s) all over the place now, roughly within a 25 mile circle around 28 N and 88.7 W. It's like it's a marble being thrown around a dryer in there!

[GCANE]

DPs are running 68 to72F over LA with breaks in the cloud cover.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanaly ... sector=18#

Currently, LIs are running positive with 700mb temp at about 10C

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

With the broken cloud cover, solar heating could destabilize the air over LA this afternoon.

Might get a good shot of mid-level moisture then.

[StormGuy]

Looks like this Tropical Storm is getting a Stadium Eye, which you usually see in a very powerful Hurricane. This storm is just confusing everyone. I think that the major thing is that the Ridge is building in sooner than expected, I think this will cause the storm to slow down even more and just meander along the Louisiana coast until the High gets far enough to the North and East of him to pull him up. So I think he will make landfall somewhere in between Intracoastal City and Sabine Pass as a high end Cat 2 hurricane.

IMO, I don't think this gets above a Cat 1 now. Too many factors going against it. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if this stayed a strong TS all the way to landfall just going by its history and the factors keeping it a TS as it stands. That's just my opinion of course from an amateur.

[Frank P]

Speaking of surge....Bienville Blvd on Dauphin Island is covered by 3 feet of water as reported by WKRG.

Sure in Biloxi right now about 3-4 feet above normal...

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/580/p1010975o.jpg/

[KBBOCA]

Regarding the matter of the hurricane deductible, if I recall correctly, for my policy in FL, the "hurricane deductible" was applicable to any named storm for which the NHC was issuing advisories. I don't *THINK* it mattered as to whether it was a TS or hurricane.

BUT I COULD BE WRONG... (I sold my house a year ago, so it's been awhile since I checked the Florida policy details!)

[Texashawk]

*sung to the Scooby Doo tune*

Dr Dr Neil, where are you?
We've got a storm out there now
Dr Dr Neil, where are you?
We need your weather brain now



It's funnier if you live in Houston.