ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[thetraveler]

Well that aint to bad, it only took 12 days from invest to Hurricane status. Is that a new record?

[otowntiger]

Upgrade, he's a hurricane now!

000
WTNT64 KNHC 281618
TCUAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

All Louisiana residents just said a collective: "Doh!" Now they are subject to the hurricane deductible.

[wkwally]

Stating 75mph winds

[Macrocane]

First hurricane in the northern Gulf of Mexico since 2009 Ida. Probably it will reach category 2 if the very slow movement "hugging" the coast that some models are showing verifies.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blinhart]

well TWC just stated they are starting to believe this will make landfall West of New Orleans, around Morgan City, with landfall for not another 14 hours, so if this continues, I suspect landfall in about 18 hours West of Intracoastal City.

[wkwally]

TWC is fun to watch and all but I will stick to the NHC
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Portastorm]

well TWC just stated they are starting to believe this will make landfall West of New Orleans, around Morgan City, with landfall for not another 14 hours, so if this continues, I suspect landfall in about 18 hours West of Intracoastal City.

As being discussed over on the model thread, there is some concern that the storm may take its sweet time in actually landfalling. Several models now showing Isaac not moving onshore until tomorrow. We shall see.

[DABHou]

*sung to the Scooby Doo tune*

Dr Dr Neil, where are you?
We've got a storm out there now
Dr Dr Neil, where are you?
We need your weather brain now



It's funnier if you live in Houston.

He's been on air the past couple of nights. KHOU

[wkwally]

That could become a real concern if Issac takes it's time with landfall then we could see a cat 2
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Blinhart]

TWC is fun to watch and all but I will stick to the NHC
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They are in constant communication with the NHC, so they are probably talking to them before they mention or show something on TV, so that there is some consensus there. Most people watch TWC to get their information, so this is very important that they are in close agreement with the information that will come out from the NHC.

[Fyzn94]

So the pressure is still dropping, according to Recon. What I think might happen is the slight land interaction might cause some of this high level winds to come down to the base and cause the storm to finally start reacting to the pressure drops, and since he is getting smaller in size than he was this time yesterday, Like I already said, won't be surprise to make him make it to Cat. 2.

Well, to make it to cat 2, he'd probably have to hit a period of explosive intensification because he's running out of time.....

Uh-oh....I hope I didn't jinx it............

[tolakram]

Latest saved NO radar loop

DO NOT QUOTE THIS IMAGE, place a space in the [img ] tag

[otowntiger]

well TWC just stated they are starting to believe this will make landfall West of New Orleans, around Morgan City, with landfall for not another 14 hours, so if this continues, I suspect landfall in about 18 hours West of Intracoastal City.

won't that also give it more time to intensify? I know it's not ideal conditions so close to land but the rule has always been that as long as the center is over water it can still intensify.

:edit: Nevermind. I just looked at the satellite image. He's not going to intensify anymore, just my opinion.

Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about.

[wkwally]

TWC is fun to watch and all but I will stick to the NHC
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

They are in constant communication with the NHC, so they are probably talking to them before they mention or show something on TV, so that there is some consensus there. Most people watch TWC to get their information, so this is very important that they are in close agreement with the information that will come out from the NHC.

SOmewhat true During Dolly they also were putting out wrong info

[Blinhart]

Wonder when TWC will send at least one reporter to Lafayette, as it looks like Lafayette and the areas around there will get some major effects from Hurricane Isaac.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Why is there such debate on speed and direction with Isaac. Nhc and recon says nw @10 . A lot of members on here saying west drift or very slow movement west.

[ROCK]

Why is there such debate on speed and direction with Isaac. Nhc and recon says nw @10 . A lot of members on here saying west drift or very slow movement west.

wheres the debate? are you trying to start one?

[WeatherGuesser]

The more it sits on it and spins, the more water gets pushed into the wrong places.

[wkwally]

I do not know if it is me or not but that radar image sure looks as if it is not going to take it's time to make landfall.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

Latest Visible



Loops:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/index.php