ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blinhart]

Why is there such debate on speed and direction with Isaac. Nhc and recon says nw @10 . A lot of members on here saying west drift or very slow movement west.

We are going by radar and satellite representation. Also we are talking about future movement, because many different models are saying different things. The difference in speed and direction will have a direct effect on what will happen and where.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Why is there such debate on speed and direction with Isaac. Nhc and recon says nw @10 . A lot of members on here saying west drift or very slow movement west.

wheres the debate? are you trying to start one?

Guess I should have worded it differently. I to have been thinking all morning that it doesn't look to be moving nw at that speed but every advisory that comes out they say otherwise. How about the differences of opinion. Is that better?

[Blinhart]

I think what we are seeing on the Radar is the dry air and not the center it self about to hit Venice. I think the center is actually at the bottom of that giant dry air pocket.

[tolakram]

Big 1 hour (60 frame) visible loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/1min/inde ... eight=1500

[LSU2001]

Mike I would guess that the NHC is kinda smoothing out the track. Notice they usually it's moving generally NW. Probably jogging a bit west right now
Wind is really starting to pick up down here now. Just got a gust. About 40 mph

Nothing official only the opinion of a

Poster
Tim

[jabman98]

well TWC just stated they are starting to believe this will make landfall West of New Orleans, around Morgan City, with landfall for not another 14 hours, so if this continues, I suspect landfall in about 18 hours West of Intracoastal City.

Family member has to go to Morgan City for work in a few weeks. I wonder how that's going to work out.

Just tuning in to the now-Hurricane Isaac. What's this about it maybe meandering along the coast and heading west-ish? When did people start seeing that might happen?

[wkwally]

I do not think it will make cat 2 and will come ashore tonight. Unless it stalls.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wkwally]

Might get some wobble before landfall
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[GCANE]

Looks like a strong, large vortical hot-tower firing on the west side of the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[otowntiger]

Looks like a strong, large vortical hot-tower firing on the west side of the LLC.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

This is still one very, very very ragged storm. Not that it's affects aren't or won't be significant in terms of flooding, and potential wind damage, but Isaac has not, does not and likely will not have his act together with regards to internal structure. He is rather sloppy to say the least.

Disclaimer: I don't know what I'm talking about.

[Dean4Storms]

It's quite possible that in some of the deepest convection that some of the flight level winds get transported down to the surface at least in gusts. It all hinges on how intense the convection becomes!

[SunnyThoughts]

Latest Visual

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES1 ... BeMARE.jpg

[tropicwatch]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The next center position could be telling. I think it is possible that Isaac might be changing course more northerly. There have been some eastward jogs.

[mutley]

I think what we are seeing on the Radar is the dry air and not the center it self about to hit Venice. I think the center is actually at the bottom of that giant dry air pocket.

That's what I see too. Also seems to be undergoing a significant wobble west. I hope it's a wobble.

[SoupBone]

I think what we are seeing on the Radar is the dry air and not the center it self about to hit Venice. I think the center is actually at the bottom of that giant dry air pocket.

That's what I see too. Also seems to be undergoing a significant wobble west. I hope it's a wobble.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


The next center position could be telling. I think it is possible that Isaac might be changing course more northerly. There have been some eastward jogs.

It's definitely wobble watching time.

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely jogging west IMO. This is not good as it will give it quite a bit more time over water.

[tolakram]

I think what we are seeing on the Radar is the dry air and not the center it self about to hit Venice. I think the center is actually at the bottom of that giant dry air pocket.

That's what I see too. Also seems to be undergoing a significant wobble west. I hope it's a wobble.

If you look at the high speed visible loops it appears the center is rotating around, or wobbling around, the convection. Refer to recon fixes for direction.

[Frank P]

thanks Mark... you really can't tell from sat or rad with Isaac, best to go with recon...

[BigB0882]

I know this is probably way premature and probably wrong but it LOOKS like it may have finally found a way to keep the dry air out. I am looking at the image tolakram posted at 11:35 AM I see what may be some dry air slots to the West but it looks like it should be able to sling that out and away instead of sucking it into the center like it has been doing its whole life.

[wkwally]

seen that there are tornado warnings posted outsid of New Orleans



any guess on time of landfall?