ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxwatcher1999]

Tropical storm watches going up for Beaumont-Port Arthur TX area. Storm surge should not be a factor as winds will be out of north and northeast, pushing water out. Main threat will be TS force winds and some rain. Another factor being discussed is strong, continuous northerly winds all the way up the LA-TX border. That coupled with low humidity and little rainfall raises the possibility of wind-driven wildfires in east TX, similar to last year's wildfire outbreak in central TX.

Those watches have been up since this morning

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looking at latest sat loops looks like he could finally be trying to wrap some the heaviest convection around the northern sides. And definitely blowing up around whatever center/s there are. Will it last who knows.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

[TwisterFanatic]

Based on models, Isaac should slow waay down and start moving due west straight west soon.

[MGC]

Just walked down to the beach....water is about 30 feet from the seawall. Getting gusty with the sun peeking out briefly......MGC

[chris1985]

Based on models, Isaac should slow waay down and start moving due west straight west soon.

I'll ask since I'm sure it will be asked very soon since you posted this....but, does that mean that it's going to hit Texas?

[ronyan]

Based on models, Isaac should slow waay down and start moving due west straight west soon.

I'll ask since I'm sure it will be asked very soon since you posted this....but, does that mean that it's going to hit Texas?

I'm glad that storms aren't influenced by these forums or there would be no coast left over here.

[wkwally]

looks as if there is going to be some wobble now.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Bluefin]

KMIS gust to 78 knots

[wkwally]

Based on models, Isaac should slow waay down and start moving due west straight west soon.

I'll ask since I'm sure it will be asked very soon since you posted this....but, does that mean that it's going to hit Texas?

I do not think so as it is going to wobble before landfall
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Karen124]

Looks like NHC is sticking to their guns with the 1 PM update (no stall/westward lingering)

[summersquall]

Amazing bird's eye view: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rabin/goes14/loop_srso.html

Look's like Isaac's still ingesting dry air into his core. While hurricane's are a thing of beauty, many people have had their lives devastated by them. Hence, we watch with humility the power of nature while keeping in out hearts concern for all those affected.

Aric. Stay safe. You are one of several Storm2K contributors that I really look to for the skinny on developing systems (with official sources of course as well). Keep the shiny side up my friend.

[Red Seal]

Looking at latest sat loops looks like he could finally be trying to wrap some the heaviest convection around the northern sides. And definitely blowing up around whatever center/s there are. Will it last who knows.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html

Yes I think he is going to spit out that last gob of dry air and then ramp up

[wkwally]

As per the NHC landfall at the mouth of the river

[wxman57]

As per the NHC landfall at the mouth of the river

Not that due to satellite parallax, the center is near the southern edge of the eyewall. Not close to landfall yet. Oh, and where exactly does land begin in southeast Louisiana? I generally consider it to be around I-10, and sometimes north of there.

[wkwally]

Looks like issac is trying to ramp up question is will there be enough time before landfall for Issac to become a cat 2. Is going to be real close.
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[wkwally]

As per the NHC landfall at the mouth of the river

Not that due to satellite parallax, the center is near the southern edge of the eyewall. Not close to landfall yet. Oh, and where exactly does land begin in southeast Louisiana? I generally consider it to be around I-10, and sometimes north of there.

I think you are so right as I was just quoteing the NHC report

[WeatherGuesser]

Storm surge estimates are still showing in excess of 10 feet:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents

With rainfall estimates above 15" in some places:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/qpf/tcqpf.php

[ATCcane]

Based on models, Isaac should slow waay down and start moving due west straight west soon.

I'd say based on Recon this morning he's more or less stalled. Their fixes are moving but it seems they have been within 30 miles or so of each other for a while now.

[Texashawk]

Perhaps now that the LLC has done its counterclockwise dance 180 around the center, we'll see more of a west movement now.



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[nautical wheeler]

As per the NHC landfall at the mouth of the river

Not that due to satellite parallax, the center is near the southern edge of the eyewall. Not close to landfall yet. Oh, and where exactly does land begin in southeast Louisiana? I generally consider it to be around I-10, and sometimes north of there.

Alexandria.