ATL: ISAAC - Recon Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Thanks just posted the most recent AF image.

[HenkL]

Someone else can take the NOAA 42 data, please.

[drezee]

All recon obs have stopped for NOAA and AF

[windnrain]

74kt flight level wind. Is it enough yet to justify hurricane intensity?

[senorpepr]

74kt flight level wind. Is it enough yet to justify hurricane intensity?

Flight level & pressure would be but the surface winds still aren't. See if the next flight out picks up anything + if they upgrade on the 11 pm adv.

Flight level winds would not support hurricane intensity. At 1500 m, you're looking at about a 80% reduction, so about 60 kt. Flight level winds and SFMR both only support 60 kt, thus the reason why NHC hasn't upgraded.

[Javlin]

May I ask Chris whats the reduction number %wise for the flight winds?

[Dave]

Explanation of recon hdobs & reduction rates:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=29&t=85603

[FutureEM]

We are getting wide swaths of 80kt winds, this thing finally got its act together.

[Texashawk]

I can't remember the last time I saw a LLC get so battered around its CDO. As I said in another thread, it's like a marble getting tossed around a steadily moving dryer.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Air Force

Code: Select all

A. 28/2100,29/0000,0300Z    Fix Time (5PM, 8PM, 11PM EDT)
B. AFXXX 3209A ISAAC
C. 28/1930Z                 Departure Time (3:30PM EDT)
D. 29.0N 89.3W
E. 28/2030Z TO 29/0300Z     Time on Station (4:30PM to 11PM EDT)
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

NOAA P-3

Code: Select all

A. 29/0000Z                  Fix Time (8PM EDT)
B. NOAA2 3309A ISAAC 
C. 28/2000Z                  Departure Time (4PM EDT)
D. 29.3N 89.6W
E. 28/2200Z TO 29/0200Z      Time on Station (6PM to 10PM EDT)
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

NOAA42: Is scheduled to fly into Isaac. Take off will be at 2000 UTC from Jacksonville International Airport and will recover at MacDill AFB. NOAA42 will fly a P-3 TDR/landfall mission. Three HRD scientists will be on this flight.
http://noaahrd.wordpress.com/2012/08/28 ... m-eastern/

Someone can pick up these missions later.

[SunnyThoughts]

RT @HRD_AOML_NOAA: #NOAA42 just took off. We are headed to fly into #Isaac.

[Elizabeth]

Our local weather guy here in Baton Rouge just said Recon picked up a pressure as low as 968 mb????

Have you guys seen that data anywhere?

[BigB0882]

Curious to see if this thing will fight to reach 80 MPH. That would be a victory with the trouble this has had!

[galaxy401]

Curious to see if this thing will fight to reach 80 MPH. That would be a victory with the trouble this has had!

It already did.

[Blinhart]

Who else finds it interesting that they haven't moved the cone West any. Also they don't have it intensifying anymore than it already is at?

[BigB0882]

Who else finds it interesting that they haven't moved the cone West any. Also they don't have it intensifying anymore than it already is at?

Probably because they see it continuing NW per Recon despite some models showing it moving West now or moving West for the past few hours. Those models can not verify if they are showing the movement already. The NAM in particular probably has zero weight with the NHC. I trust the NHC more than any model. As for strength, I think it could go up another 5-10 but at this point is that going to matter that much? I see no reason to wonder why they don't show it strengthening, if it doesn't stall then it will be on land quite soon.

[Dave]

Anyone available for graphics for recon?

[ATCcane]

I'll do as many as I can. May be in and out but I plan on being around most of the evening.

[Dave]

Someone pickup hdobs AF 308 please.

[westwind]

can someone take over NOAA obs please.