EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

Stuck at 45 knots for 12 hours now...hope that doesn't impede intensification into a hurricane. As much as the storms here don't threaten land frequently, the ePac needs more recognition - notice how sparsely populated Ileana's thread is, compared to Isaac's thread.

Please pardon me if this sounds like a dumb comparison.

[Yellow Evan]

It's not a dumb question, but atm, the worst GOM hurricane since 2008 is making landfall, thus stealing the thunder. As I said, 300 ppl are in this storm's path.

[cycloneye]

WTPZ44 KNHC 290237
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 28 2012

ILEANA APPEARS TO HAVE STRENGTHENED A LITTLE DURING THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS EXPANDED SLIGHTLY...AND
CONVECTIVE CURVED BANDS...ALTHOUGH BROKEN AND NOT VERY DEEP...EXIST
IN MOST QUADRANTS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC WERE 45 KT
AND 50 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE ADT VALUES FROM
UW-CIMSS WERE NEAR 50 KT. BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL
WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 50 KT. ADDITIONAL SLOW STRENGTHENING
SEEMS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS ILEANA REMAINS IN A
LOW WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...IN A MOIST AIRMASS...AND OVER WARM
WATER. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS...ILEANA IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE
IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE OVER SUB-26C WATERS AND INTO MODERATE
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THESE MORE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO STEADILY WEAKEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD WITH A FORWARD SPEED OF
ABOUT 9 KT. THIS HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD CALIFORNIA. A
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR EVEN THE WEST IS EXPECTED BEYOND 3
DAYS AS ILEANA BECOMES A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND IS STEERED BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...TRENDING TOWARD THE CONSENSUS AIDS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.0N 111.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.8N 112.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.7N 113.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 19.6N 114.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 20.3N 115.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 21.5N 117.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 22.2N 120.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 22.5N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[hurricanes1234]

Oops! The best track may have been wrong. It's now at 60 mph. Ileana may be just like Gilma earlier this month, of which is fine with me. Hope those 300 people are okay.

[Yellow Evan]

Oops! The best track may have been wrong. It's now at 60 mph. Ileana may be just like Gilma earlier this month, of which is fine with me. Hope those 300 people are okay.

Best track and advs time are done differently. As fo the 300 ppl, Illeana pass in between the island chain, with the core remaining well away of the islands inhibiting any serious affects. Clarion Island, population like 100 I think, should pass to the west of the system, while the largest island Socorro, should pass to the west, and there is only a slight chance of gale-force winds there. Still hurricanes there is a regular thing that we never noticed, partially because the NHC never issued watches/warnings for it/ Hector and Fabio also threatened the same islands earlier this year.\

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

UPDATE: Socorro Island seems to be on alert for this system, not sure about Clarion. http://geografica.cenapred.unam.mx/Bole ... 28.08.2012

[Kingarabian]

Developing an Eyewall:


ADT says 55kts.

[Kingarabian]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290830
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 AM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

ILEANA HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE TONIGHT. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 55 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS.
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
STORM REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM
WATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LGEM AND BRINGS
ILEANA TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS. IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS...COOLER WATERS ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASE IN SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD CAUSE A
WEAKENING TREND. ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 4 TO
5 DAYS WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
22C.

THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. THIS GENERAL
HEADING WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE STORM MOVES TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. AFTER 48
HOURS...ILEANA SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AS A RIDGE REBUILDS
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE
FASTER AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.6N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.5N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 19.5N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 20.3N 114.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 20.9N 115.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 21.9N 118.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 22.5N 121.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 23.0N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Cyclenall]

It looks like its becoming a hurricane, its formation is becoming very quick during the last few hours with rapidly forming spiral banding and an eyewall on those scans. Still looks better than Issac.

[hurricanes1234]

Best track for 12z, anybody?

[hurricanes1234]

Don't bother...I found my answer in the update at 11 am.

[hurricanes1234]

Very near to hurricane strength. We'll probably have a hurricane by 5:00 pm EDT.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[EBrads146]

Here we go! Given the eye formation, I'm willing to bet the NHC goes for the upgrade on the next advisory.

[Kingarabian]

EP, 09, 2012082918, , BEST, 0, 182N, 1127W, 60, 991, TS, 50, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 20, 1006, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ILEANA, M,

Remains a TS.

Eye wall needs to strengthen however.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT WED AUG 29 2012

ILEANA CURRENTLY SHOWS A WELL-ORGANIZED CURVED BAND CONVECTIVE
PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL ATTEMPTS TO WRAP UP AN EYEWALL AND EYE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM SAB AND 55 KT FROM
TAFB...AND A RECENT CIMSS AMSU INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS 62 KT. SINCE
THE CENTRAL CONVECTION DOES NOT QUITE WRAP ALL THE WAY AROUND THE
CENTER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 60 KT. THE STORM IS
IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD CIRRUS OUTFLOW
IN ALL DIRECTIONS.

WHILE THE CENTER HAS BEEN WOBBLING TODAY...THE OVERALL MOTION
REMAINS TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...320/7. FOR THE NEXT 72 HR...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY THE COMBINATION OF A
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A DEVELOPING
MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. WHILE THE GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...THE UKMET AND THE NOGAPS SHOW
A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION DURING THIS TIME. AFTER 72 HR...THE
GUIDANCE DIVERGES FURTHER...WITH THE GFS SHOWING ILEANA TURNING TO
THE NORTH BEFORE IT WEAKENS...AND THE ECMWF FORECASTING A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST. THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE LATTER
SCENARIO...SHOWING A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 72 HR. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES
SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES ILEANA OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND IT PROBABLY HAS 12-24 HR LEFT TO
STRENGTHEN UNDER THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN. BASED ON
THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A
HURRICANE IN ABOUT 12 HR AND MAINTAIN THAT STATUS THROUGH 24 HR.
AFTER THAT...THE DECREASING SSTS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING...
WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 96 HR
AND A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HR. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND
OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 18.5N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 19.3N 113.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 20.2N 114.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 21.1N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 31/1800Z 21.8N 116.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 24.0N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 24.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Yellow Evan]

Looks close to hurricane intensity.

[hurricanes1234]

Ragged eye in visible imagery - a hurricane may be forming.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track goes up to 65kts.

EP, 09, 2012083000, , BEST, 0, 188N, 1129W, 65, 987, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[hurricanes1234]

Well, guys, we seem to have Hurricane Ileana!

[HurricaneAndrew92]

It is a hurricane! My bad. I'm tired.