ATL: ISAAC - Models

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ATCcane
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5641 Postby ATCcane » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:22 pm

NAM 24hr


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Hmmmm
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5642 Postby ATCcane » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:24 pm

00Z NAM 36hr

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#5643 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:31 pm

NAM is a terrible long range model but is decent at short range. I wouldn't discredit it at all.
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#5644 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:31 pm

Looks like it makes the Final landfall at 42 hours Extreme SW Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5645 Postby ATCcane » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:31 pm

Crossing the Sabine River a 45hrs

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#5646 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:39 pm

If the westward moment continues for another 6-12 hours, I'm going to really start considering the NAM's latest run.
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#5647 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:44 pm

Once again, the NAM pounds me with rain. Last time we had a remnant storm come up we got 13 inches of rain in 4 hours and flooded the entire town.
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#5648 Postby BigB0882 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:45 pm

This hasn't been moving westward. A wobble does not equal longterm movement. Look where it was 3-6 hours ago and look where it is now. It is that simple. The NAM has never been right, even 6 hours out it seems. The NAM is good for a shock but that's about it.
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Re:

#5649 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:45 pm

TwisterFanatic wrote:Once again, the NAM pounds me with rain. Last time we had a remnant storm come up we got 13 inches of rain in 4 hours and flooded the entire town.


Was that Hermine back in 2010?
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#5650 Postby Portastorm » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:49 pm

BigB0882 wrote:This hasn't been moving westward. A wobble does not equal longterm movement. Look where it was 3-6 hours ago and look where it is now. It is that simple. The NAM has never been right, even 6 hours out it seems. The NAM is good for a shock but that's about it.


You're right ... it was actually moving SOUTHwestward per recon. Whether it is a wobble or sustained movement, we don't know yet.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5651 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:50 pm

Gfs been showing it also
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5652 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:54 pm

10pm (Central) NHC advisory track.

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#5653 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:57 pm

Moved .1 N and .4 west past 2 hours
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Re:

#5654 Postby Bluefin » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:57 pm

Janie2006 wrote:You know the end doth truly approach when the NAM has a feasible tropical solution. I wouldn't say it's impossible for Isaac to take a stroll in the marshes for awhile.

Sounds like warnings from Chaucer via Beowulf, but perhaps that's perhaps past your time.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5655 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:58 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:10pm (Central) NHC advisory track.

[ img]http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/8342/212335w5nlsm.gif[/img]

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now if this thing goes west i am going to be sure and post everyone of these
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5656 Postby iorange55 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 9:59 pm

Kind of surprised they aren't moving the cone west at all. It's not just the NAM showing the westward movement, but they certainly know more than I do.

They are sticking to their guns.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5657 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:03 pm

I feel like they just went "all in" lol

Shocked they didn't at least nudge it west a little.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5658 Postby Rockin4NOLA » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:09 pm

The NHC, though they will never admit it, is probably as annoyed with Isaac as we are. I'm just a hopin' and a prayin' my family's place in nola is unscathed after this. I just want to say thanks to all the mods and everyone here for their hard work up to this point. I've learned more about hurricanes, tracks, models and 'cane analysis on here than on all the glorified local reporting I see on local tv combined. Thanks again!
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5659 Postby Stormlover2012 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:12 pm

If gfs shows the west trend again it will b moved at 2
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5660 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:13 pm

they are waiting for the 0Z GFS I bet you before they move it.....JMO......BTW the 0Z GFS comes out soon...
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