ATL: ISAAC - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
wxwatcher1999
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 264
Joined: Sat Aug 04, 2012 10:19 am

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5661 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:18 pm

ROCK wrote:they are waiting for the 0Z GFS I bet you before they move it.....JMO......BTW the 0Z GFS comes out soon...



what do you think Rock...further south?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Karen124
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:02 pm
Location: Near Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5662 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:18 pm

How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!
0 likes   
Been around since Rita but it seems like I forget my login every season. Oh well...
Top
User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 4197
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5663 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:19 pm

Karen124 wrote:How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!


It starts updating in about 10 mins.
0 likes   
Top
sphelps8681
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 785
Joined: Thu Aug 16, 2007 5:37 pm
Location: Somewhere over the rainbow

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5664 Postby sphelps8681 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:24 pm

local met here in beaumont not forcasting much of anything. He did say that isaac would go west but there was dry to the west. Can someone tell me what exactly that means.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5665 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:26 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:local met here in beaumont not forcasting much of anything. He did say that isaac would go west but there was dry to the west. Can someone tell me what exactly that means.


It means the west side of a tropical system is called the 'dry side' because, among other things, there isn't the same amount of convection. I think it also has to do with northerly flow being drier.
0 likes   
Top
pwrdog
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 193
Joined: Fri Jan 26, 2007 5:58 am
Location: Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5666 Postby pwrdog » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:27 pm

Karen124 wrote:How soon is soon? It's way past my bedtime already!

GFS
0z: 10:30pm
6z: 4:30am
12z: 10:30am
18z: 4:30pm

NAM
0z: 8:35pm
6z: 2:35am
12z: 8:35am
18z: 2:35pm

GGEM
0z: 12:00am
12z : 12:00pm

UKMET
0z: 12:30am
12z: 12:30pm

ECM
0z: 1:30am
12z: 1:30pm
0 likes   
Top
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 480
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5667 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:28 pm

To me it looks like they did shift it a little further west, they changed sabine from a tropical storm watch to a tropical storm warning. It also looks like the cone covers a little bigger area of the northeast part of texas. might just be my eyes.

just my uneducated opinion
0 likes   
Top
Karen124
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 9:02 pm
Location: Near Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5668 Postby Karen124 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:29 pm

Thank you! That should be a sticky! I've been looking for that info for days now! :)
0 likes   
Been around since Rita but it seems like I forget my login every season. Oh well...
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5669 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:31 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
Wx_Warrior wrote:10pm (Central) NHC advisory track.

[ img]http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/8342/212335w5nlsm.gif[/img]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us



now if this thing goes west i am going to be sure and post everyone of these


Do what you got to do. This is the forecast of the National Hurricane Center. I don't have a dog in this hunt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5670 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:32 pm

GFS is moving this w to sw offshore at 9hrs....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5671 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:33 pm

If NHC was 100% certain on tracks, there would be no cones. Follow the radar & cone.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5672 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:34 pm

the NHC will have to recognize these models runs.....at least a slight shift west..come on now....
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5673 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:38 pm

I'm just posting what the NHC publishes.

Ok to post this? 0z GFS 18h

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
Ken711
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1074
Joined: Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:48 pm

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5674 Postby Ken711 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:39 pm

Is there any chance that steering conditions would allow Isaac to loop around the same way that Juan did in 1985?

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5675 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:39 pm

27hr

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
0 likes   
Top
catskillfire51
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 480
Age: 38
Joined: Sun Aug 26, 2012 5:40 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5676 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

ROCK wrote:the NHC will have to recognize these models runs.....at least a slight shift west..come on now....



If you go to page 282 and look half way down is the 6pm nhc forcasted cone, look at it now... they did shift it west


Just my uneducated opinion and untrained eye
Last edited by catskillfire51 on Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5677 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

Let me try this one

GFS 30H

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Texashawk
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 1:50 am
Location: Missouri City, TX (Houston)

#5678 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:40 pm

You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.
0 likes   
Top
Wx_Warrior
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2718
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2006 3:58 pm
Location: Beaumont, TX

Re: ATL: ISAAC - Models

#5679 Postby Wx_Warrior » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:41 pm

36h

Image

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9483
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re:

#5680 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:42 pm

Texashawk wrote:You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.



yep....that would be worst case of course....but the water on the coast are toasty as well...


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2012”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 26 guests