ATL: ISAAC - Models

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[Wx_Warrior]

42h



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[Jagno]

You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.

You just expressed my thoughts/concerns that if he doesn't pick up that true NW motion and maintain it then he may very well miss Houma and remain in open water much longer. Oh BTW, I'm not forecasting anything, just a personal observation.

[Wx_Warrior]

Last one for me: 54H



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[CYCLONE MIKE]

You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.

Check out this radar loop. Might just be trying to do that.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[sfgal]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

I am not experienced at interpreting these maps, but the last run just posted by Rock appears to put the storm's center near Baton Rouge or between BR and Mississippi. Are my old eyes failing me?

[Texashawk]

034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)

[ROCK]

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&image=&page=Param&cycle=08%2F29%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=850_temp_mslp_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=ATLANTIC&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=Atlantic+region&prevArea=ATLANTIC&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M

I am not experienced at interpreting these maps, but the last run just posted by Rock appears to put the storm's center near Baton Rouge or between BR and Mississippi. Are my old eyes failing me?

Baton Rouge......


BTW- that is a SW jog for sure.....any prolonged SW run and the further west this can get and more water to work with....not saying in will happen but there is a pool of 30C water just south / west of him....jmo

add 2k disclaimer....

[ROCK]

034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)

yep.....good call Hawk good call.....

[Blinhart]

I didn't like Juan back in 1985, and he was just a Tropical Storm that actually made it in land before deciding to make his loop. Looks like Isaac just doesn't want to make it further in land than a couple miles, so that would be scary.

[Hurricaneman]

A few days ago, the GFS showed this exact scenerio thats happening now when all the other models were in the Florida Panhandle, kudos to the GFS

[Texashawk]

You know, if Isaac can get over/across the 'Houma Hump', so to speak, it might keep most of its eye offshore for quite a while, owing to the geometry of Louisiana's western coastline.

Check out this radar loop. Might just be trying to do that.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Man, this thing's retreating back from the coast faster than.... eh, better not go there.

Kidding aside, I'm starting to truly wonder whether this is just a little wobble.

[Texashawk]

034030 2859N 08955W 8427 01237 9695 +210 +210 239003 008 000 004 05

Recon confirms, intermediate-term motion is just South of due West. Long live the NAM!!! (did I just say that?!?)

yep.....good call Hawk good call.....

BTW, don't know if you watch KHOU Rock, but the old man called this days ago, sort of. So nice to have 2 NHC directors in our town.

[Ken711]

I didn't like Juan back in 1985, and he was just a Tropical Storm that actually made it in land before deciding to make his loop. Looks like Isaac just doesn't want to make it further in land than a couple miles, so that would be scary.

That's exactly what I was wondering. Is there anyway Issac could be pushed back NE after a loop? Or if it continues to bounce along the coast it will be forced W or N?

[Wx_Warrior]

Splitting frog hairs, GFS was may have been a tad east on 0z.

[Nederlander]

Splitting frog hairs, GFS was may have been a tad east on 0z.

*ahem euro hugger *ahem... Lol kidding aside GFS has done well with this system compared to the rest of the models. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Let's hope it doesn't get blocked..

[jenmrk]

Will be seeing models again any time soon?

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO 24H



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[jenmrk]

That answered my question...thank you!

[Wx_Warrior]

48H moving north



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