ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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pwrdog
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8021 Postby pwrdog » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:55 pm

stormreader wrote:
boomstyk wrote:My question is this for any of you experience amateurs or pro mets.

Lets suppose the track moves west and the eye stays in the water for the most part. Does the fact that the north side of the storm is over land break the storm down?


Not much, in my opinion. Storm was in an intensification phase as it approaced the coast. Eye is source of energy. N Eyewall will generally be over damp marsh lands without trees.


I lived in that area for a few years.... It's mostly marsh and north of that is mostly swamps..... It's that way pretty much until Laffeyette.. Then it's a smal coastal strip followed by marsh then pasture land all the way to Texas....
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8022 Postby boomstyk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:55 pm

Meteorcane wrote:Boothville gusting to 81 now, some good news looked like weakening has finally begun, based on imagery, however, it will be a slow process with such a large slow moving storm, over a marshy area.


Totally Agree Meteorcane. It looks to be breaking down! :D
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8023 Postby cigtyme » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:57 pm

Houma getting worse as time passes on. Praying for all those south of me. Cannot wait for dawn no power since 730. Hang in there Tim over in lafourche.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8024 Postby wxwatcher1999 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:58 pm

boomstyk wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Boothville gusting to 81 now, some good news looked like weakening has finally begun, based on imagery, however, it will be a slow process with such a large slow moving storm, over a marshy area.


Totally Agree Meteorcane. It looks to be breaking down! :D


it will be back over water soon in my opinion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8025 Postby HurricaneBrain » Tue Aug 28, 2012 10:59 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
boomstyk wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Boothville gusting to 81 now, some good news looked like weakening has finally begun, based on imagery, however, it will be a slow process with such a large slow moving storm, over a marshy area.


Totally Agree Meteorcane. It looks to be breaking down! :D


it will be back over water soon in my opinion

It basically is over water.
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#8026 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:00 pm

And oh joy, DMAX approaches. I hate what's happening and is going to happen to SE Louisiana tonight. :(
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#8027 Postby TwisterFanatic » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:00 pm

Weakening? It's over water
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8028 Postby LSU2001 » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:01 pm

Doing fine cigtyme, I am actually enjoying the storm so far. I know how much work and how much heartache will be had when this passes but for now I am enjoying witnessing mother natures awesome power. How can humans think we can overcome something like this??
TIm

Oh yea, I am not worried about water because I built almost 15 ft above sea level in Cut Off. Base flood elevaton grade is 3.5 where I live so I went a bit above that. :lol:
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8029 Postby monicaei » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:01 pm

Blinhart wrote:
monicaei wrote:
Blinhart wrote:Looks like second landfall might happen South of Grand Isle. Now the million dollar question. Will this be the final landfall or will we have another South of Houma and maybe another on the West side of Vermillion Bay?


How can a landfall occur south of Grand Isle? Other than the previous ship channel landfall, what is south of grand isle?


East Timbalier


Ok... Uninhabited, profoundly eroded barrier island thats about 1/4 mile across leading into a bay. I guess i have been the fly in the ointment for "landfall" definition. At some point treating spoil banks and sand bars as "land" does seem somewhat silly, though? Or am I way off?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8030 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:01 pm

Here's the obs so far, in the order they happened. Will it stay on a NW track or take 2 steps back again?

Image
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8031 Postby boomstyk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:02 pm

wxwatcher1999 wrote:
boomstyk wrote:
Meteorcane wrote:Boothville gusting to 81 now, some good news looked like weakening has finally begun, based on imagery, however, it will be a slow process with such a large slow moving storm, over a marshy area.


Totally Agree Meteorcane. It looks to be breaking down! :D


it will be back over water soon in my opinion


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They eye is already over water wxwatcher. The tops are coming off the storm. He's done. Weakening from here.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8032 Postby PauleinHouston » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:02 pm

it will be back over water soon in my opinion[/quote]
It basically is over water.[/quote]

At least TWC is finally saying it's moved/moving Westward and over water. Recon has confirmed this as well. Does appear to be getting some land influence now from organizational standpoint too.
Last edited by PauleinHouston on Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8033 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:04 pm

tolakram wrote:Here's the obs so far, in the order they happened. Will it stay on a NW track or take 2 steps back again?

[img ]http://img839.imageshack.us/img839/2420/zztempk.jpg[/img]


Based on radar, I gotta believe it's going to take some steps back. Otherwise, there's some serious decoupling going on, and I don't think that's an issue at this point.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8034 Postby tolakram » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:04 pm

boomstyk wrote:They eye is already over water wxwatcher. The tops are coming off the storm. He's done. Weakening from here.


A little quick to call it done I think. Pressure is still as low, but cloud tops are warming.
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#8035 Postby PTPatrick » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:05 pm

I have to say, gfs has handled this well and I respect the nam in short term. Having said that...there are still models wanting to push this north west eventually. It may well end up near Morgan city before it drifts nw.
I think it's important to realize this is clearly in a weak steering situation. I don't think it has moved west truly, but rather, it Hit the breaks and its center did cyclonic loops in Barataria bay like it appeared to get sucked toward heavy convection. Could it become true west motion? Maybe. I think it's equally possible it could sit for a bit before it decides to go on in. I generally don't trust models much when steering breaks down....situations like this are notoriously tough forecasts, and I cant blame NHC for not jumping on a Beaumont landfall.
Last edited by PTPatrick on Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#8036 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:05 pm

@twc_hurricane

Latest NOAA recon plane found a min. central pressure of 966mb inside #Isaac at 10:35pm CDT, the lowest pressure yet.
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#8037 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:06 pm

Ummmm this thing isn't wobbling SW in my opinion, its moving that way. At least WSW.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8038 Postby Texashawk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:06 pm

OK, plesae help me here. Perhaps I'm stupid and can't properly read a radar. Anybody's welcome to answer: What does this loop suggest to you?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=LIX&loop=yes

Thanks in advance - this is for another board.
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#8039 Postby TexasSam » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:07 pm

Did TWC go off the air for everyone, or just me on Dish Network?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Hurricane - Discussion

#8040 Postby boomstyk » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:07 pm

tolakram wrote:
boomstyk wrote:They eye is already over water wxwatcher. The tops are coming off the storm. He's done. Weakening from here.


A little quick to call it done I think. Pressure is still as low, but cloud tops are warming.


Should have said "my opinion" apologies!

Tolakram - Tell me. With the North side of the storm over land can it still strengthen if the eye remains over water?
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