ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
This invest is for Tropical Wave in Eastern Atlantic.
FSTDA
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201208282320
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NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012082818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 280W, 20, 0, DB, 0, ,
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113504&start=0
FSTDA
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U
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201208282320
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2012, DB, O, 2012082818, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982012
AL, 98, 2012082818, , BEST, 0, 119N, 280W, 20, 0, DB, 0, ,
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest
Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113504&start=0
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
8 PM TWO
Up to 30%
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
Up to 30%
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
DISTURBANCE HAS GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.
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- northjaxpro
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This is the one to watch going into next week. I think this CV invest has a very good shot of slipping under the ridge and traversing quite far to the west approaching the Eastern Caribbean in 7 days or so.
_______________
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast. They are just the opinion of this poster. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 290006
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N26W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N29W 1010
MB. THE SYSTEM IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-34W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
AXNT20 KNHC 290006
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N26W TO LOW PRES NEAR 12N29W 1010
MB. THE SYSTEM IS WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NW OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 28W-34W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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- ouragans
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
Did you notice the best track is at 18z?
Gustywind, that's what I was talking about the other day... to be monitored closely. This system killed more than 60 people in the last 7 days in Western Africa
Gustywind, that's what I was talking about the other day... to be monitored closely. This system killed more than 60 people in the last 7 days in Western Africa
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Personal forecast disclaimer
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
This post is a personal point of view, not an information. Please refer to official statements for life-threatening decisions.
David '79, Frederic '79, Hugo '89, Iris, Luis & Marilyn '95, Georges '98, Lenny '99, Dean '07, Irma '17, Maria '17, Fiona '22, Philippe '23, Tammy '23
16°13'33.3,"6N -61°36'39.5"W
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
It will be very interesting to see the interaction that may occur between this system and TD11/Kirk.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
Well...it's time to say goodbye to my most successful, most viewed and most populated thread yet...at least I would be able to look back at it every now and then.
Dear moderators,
Please don't delete that thread I made in the Talkin' Tropics forum about the precursor to 98L - I want to remember it by reading it every now and then.
Thanks!
Dear moderators,
Please don't delete that thread I made in the Talkin' Tropics forum about the precursor to 98L - I want to remember it by reading it every now and then.
Thanks!
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PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.
I do think there is a risk to the NE CAribbean from this, I remember the models orginally had Issac recurving where it currently has 98L going, so that really needs to be remembered...
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Bocadude85
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Re:
KWT wrote:Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.
South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L
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Re: Re:
Bocadude85 wrote:KWT wrote:Probably has a good chance of being the next big player in the Atlantic, but the upper ridging looks weaker than we have seen with previous systems this year, so I'd be rather surprised if it made it all the way across, esp as by that time we will be in September and from then on it does get harder for systems to make it all the way across.
South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L
Yup, the ones that path north of Puerto Rico and are then trapped under the ridge.
We always need to watch these systems off of Africa and wait for them to take the recurve route like TD11/Kirk and many others.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
ABOUT 550 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
CONDUCIVE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICALCYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N26W 16N29W...
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N30W.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 13 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7.5N TO
10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W.
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Re: Re:
Bocadude85 wrote:South Florida gets the majority of its hurricane landfalls from the east in Septmeber. In fact some of the strongest hurricanes to hit South Florida have occured in Sept. Just something to think about... not saying thats whats going to happen with 98L
Indeed, like I said with Issac I'm not totally convinced this is recurve material, but it is really going to depend on how strong Kirk ends up becoming, if it goes on to become a 2/3 type hurricane its hard to imagine this one not recurving through the gap unless it doesn't develop.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Gustywind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
ouragans wrote:Did you notice the best track is at 18z?
Gustywind, that's what I was talking about the other day... to be monitored closely. This system killed more than 60 people in the last 7 days in Western Africa
Yeah ouragans, that's something to monitor carefully during the next couple of days.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
cycloneye wrote:It will be very interesting to see the interaction that may occur between this system and TD11/Kirk.
That really is going to be of vital importance I feel. Typically the models have under-estimated the upper ridge for all systems that got past 50W, so if this one is still only weak at that time then I suspect another threat down the line will be likely. Kirk is the wildcard here though.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
- Gustywind
- Category 5
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Hurricane Season
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html
Aug 29, 2012 5:34 am ET
ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC
- There's another one in the pipeline after that In the eastern Atlantic. Latest model runs have it never reaching land, but it is too early to guarantee that.
Stu Ostro, Senior Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
http://www.weather.com/newscenter/hurri ... index.html
Aug 29, 2012 5:34 am ET
ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC
- There's another one in the pipeline after that In the eastern Atlantic. Latest model runs have it never reaching land, but it is too early to guarantee that.
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- Gustywind
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From NRL weather site: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... 100pc.html
20120829.1015.98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-119N-327W.
20120829.1015.98LINVEST.25kts-1009mb-119N-327W.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L
SSD Floater is up for 98L. Slowly organizing.
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