2012 EPAC season

[Kingarabian]

That's going to be our J storm. GFS shows John and then Kristy in the upcoming weeks.

11 of the last 12 and 13 of the last 15 J EPAC storms has affected land, but I think the streak is ending here in 2012.

Well hopefully Ileana and John moist things up for Kristy. EPac is really warming right now and I think Kristy could be our Cat. 5 storm.

[Yellow Evan]

That's going to be our J storm. GFS shows John and then Kristy in the upcoming weeks.

11 of the last 12 and 13 of the last 15 J EPAC storms has affected land, but I think the streak is ending here in 2012.

Well hopefully Ileana and John moist things up for Kristy. EPac is really warming right now and I think Kristy could be our Cat. 5 storm.

It's too soon IMO to get excited for Kristy, it is still like 13 days out.

[Yellow Evan]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Yellow Evan]

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED A
FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[somethingfunny]

30% and not an invest yet. Ladies and gentlemen.... the EPAC.

[Yellow Evan]

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FOR
SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.

[Kingarabian]

30% and not an invest yet. Ladies and gentlemen.... the EPAC.

Especially considering the fact both the GFS and the Euro (although the latter not making it strong) develop this disturbance.

[Yellow Evan]

30% and not an invest yet. Ladies and gentlemen.... the EPAC.

Especially considering the fact both the GFS and the Euro (although the latter not making it strong) develop this disturbance.

I have a feeling it won't develop though.

[Yellow Evan]

30% and not an invest yet. Ladies and gentlemen.... the EPAC.

Especially considering the fact both the GFS and the Euro (although the latter not making it strong) develop this disturbance.

I have a feeling it won't develop though.

Take that back, I think 98E will develop. Not 100% sure on 99E though.

[cycloneye]

The EPAC comes to life again.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN SEP 9 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. ALTHOUGH THIS DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY
RATHER DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[Kingarabian]

Dry air is decreasing finally!

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, there's been a lot of rain here in Nevada lately.

[Kingarabian]

We now have Kristy, and the GFS and Euro are both developing Lane and Miriam within the next 2 weeks.

[Yellow Evan]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131731
TWOEP

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU SEP 13 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KRISTY...LOCATED ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA CALIFORNIA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR BEFORE THE LOW INTERACTS WITH KRISTY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANIED BY CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED MIDWAY BETWEEN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

When do you all think Miriam will form?

[Kingarabian]

Probably next week. Miriam is an Arabic name as well! Hope she's something special.

[Kingarabian]

Mexico threat in 10 days.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED SEP 19 2012

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION LANE...LOCATED ABOUT 1355 MILES WEST
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS FORMED ABOUT 425 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS FROM THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

The EPAC has Invest 93E.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=113757&p=2276738#p2276738

[Yellow Evan]

Any storms expected after Miriam?