ATL: LESLIE - Models

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N2FSU
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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#61 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:24 am

00Z Euro: 48hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#62 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:24 am

00Z Euro: 72hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#63 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:25 am

00Z Euro: 96hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#64 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:26 am

00Z Euro: 120hr

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#65 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:27 am

00Z Euro: 216hr

Well West of 60W

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Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

#66 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:28 am

00Z Euro: 240hr

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#67 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:37 am

@ N2FSU not sure about the intensity on that last frame, the isobars of the system seems rather tightly packed for being so far north. Still that is a rather interesting, and frightening, run. Lets all hope an eastward model trend starts up again, soon.
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Re:

#68 Postby N2FSU » Thu Aug 30, 2012 8:39 am

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:@ N2FSU not sure about the intensity on that last frame, the isobars of the system seems rather tightly packed for being so far north. Still that is a rather interesting, and frightening, run. Lets all hope an eastward model trend starts up again, soon.


I agree!
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#69 Postby TheBurn » Thu Aug 30, 2012 9:47 am

Shallow BAM roller coaster... :wink:

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#70 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:51 am

12z GFS Initialized

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12z GFS +24

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12z GFS +48

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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#71 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 30, 2012 10:52 am

12z GFS +72

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12z GFS +78 (Shows a weakness in the ridge)

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#72 Postby Jevo » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:00 am

12z GFS +96

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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#73 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:05 am

it developed too fast to miss the weakness left by Kirk....TD12 going out to sea once again....
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#74 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:07 am

ROCK wrote:it developed too fast to miss the weakness left by Kirk....TD12 going out to sea once again....

High pressure building in, more similar to the 0z Euro.
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#75 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:10 am

Riptide wrote:
ROCK wrote:it developed too fast to miss the weakness left by Kirk....TD12 going out to sea once again....

High pressure building in, more similar to the 0z Euro.




yeah but it wont be enough to get it west enough to hit the CONUS....something will pick it up....
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#76 Postby Riptide » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:11 am

ROCK wrote:
Riptide wrote:
ROCK wrote:it developed too fast to miss the weakness left by Kirk....TD12 going out to sea once again....

High pressure building in, more similar to the 0z Euro.




yeah but it wont be enough to get it west enough to hit the CONUS....something will pick it up....

I strongly agree, looks like it's moving very slowing just waiting for a weakness. The euro has another cutoff low over the southeast US which is not there on the GFS.
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#77 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:11 am

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M


sitting and waiting on the next sw....
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#78 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:13 am

and 12 hours later...there she goes... :lol:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M
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#79 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:13 am

This run of the gfs is no good. its developing some sort of system from the tail end of the trough near Bermuda which keeps the weakness in the ridge. its not likely that feature will ever exist. the ridge would very quickly build in if that feature was not there.
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Re: ATL: TWELVE - Models

#80 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 30, 2012 11:14 am

if she can stay weak she could make it across....dry air is not helping her and she is moving fast...maybe Kirk ejects quicker....it wasnt a few days ago the GFS had this in the GOM....
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