ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Zampanò]

Bizarre to think that we're probably going to have an "L" storm before September. I didn't expect to see that again, at least not after only seven years.

[cycloneye]

Image from Guadeloupe of TD12 in relation to the Islands.

[drezee]

The test will be if this buoy has a east wind in about 10 hours...per the NHC forecast

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

You mean west winds, I presume.

No east was correct, the NHC has it at 45.8 at 0z. If there is an east wind, then we know the center is south of 14.2(buoy at 14.175).

[ROCK]

moving at 20 mph.. under a stout ridge to be moving that fast...ridge might be filling in under Kirk but not sure if it will be enough if TD12 gets any stronger to keep her west

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at the images and loops, looks like the center is on the NE side of the convection...near 14.1N or 14.2N

And actually, if the convection keeps dying down over the center and the cirrus clear, the center will be nearly completely exposed (it is already partly).

If that persist,it may go little more west.

Note that the shallow BAM (BAMS) takes it sharply WNW while the mid and deep-layer BAMs take it farther west. Still, they all indicate recurvature well east of the Caribbean.

This is true except that its pretty clear the models are not do well with the ridging between kirk. the bam shallow each from its birth as an invest had been showing a wnw turn but just like the rest of the models... they have been wrong. it has continued west and in some cases 265 which means the ridging is quite a bit stronger and farther west than the models are seeing.

starting at frame 62... notice the immediate wnw to nw... they are just not handling the ridge correctly..

http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.ph ... 2&title=98

[drezee]

33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )

[Aric Dunn]

33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )

thats a good distance to the west of the center. I bet we see sustained TS winds soon.

[tolakram]

Saved Loop

[Aric Dunn]

Saved Loop

[img]http://img805.imageshack.us/img805/816/zzvisanimatedw.gif[/ig]

was just about to post that.. notice the strong curved band now 3/4 the way around maybe more. If this trend continues we may start seeing some "eye" features develop.

well on microwave images at first later today.

[tolakram]

Hi Res view

[SouthDadeFish]

Beautiful curved band with excellent outflow to the W and S:



In my opinion, this is one of those classic pre-buzz saw storm looks.

[Aric Dunn]

Its pretty where clear the center is and that its quicker getting better organized and still heading due west at about 20mph with no sign of a turn.

latest image updated. pretty impressive. the islands are not out of the woods yet till the turn happens.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[ROCK]

looks like it took a south of west dip but corrected back to west....20 mph and developing...we saw a few this year who could shake off the SAL and speed to develope...

[ozonepete]

Got almost everything it needs. Great mid-level moisture, virtually no SAL, good SSTs, outflow. Shear is low right now with maybe some 10-15 knot easterly shear on occasion over next day or so. The forward speed is fast but not overly inhibiting. Sure looks like like an eye is trying to form. We'll see on microwave, as Aric said.

[drezee]

33mph sustained winds measured, so far by 41041
1521 29.1 kts N ( 360 deg true )

NW winds last hour w/ pressure down to 1009
center is likely N of 14.175

[ouragans]

Its pretty where the center is and that its quicker getting better organized and still heading due west at about 20mph with no sign of a turn.

latest image updated. pretty impressive. the islands are not out of the woods yet till the turn happens.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

I was waiting for these words from you, and I'm sure Gustywind was waiting as well. As per the forecast points, there's no sign of a turn

[ROCK]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... zoom=&time


going to run out of ridging soon....so much for staying weak...that latest blowup is starting to wrap....and I thought the SHIPS intensity forecast was out to lunch...shows you how much I know...

[KWT]

Looking very good at the moment, I think we will have a TS next advisory, I'd say 45kts is close to the mark, though as Aric said it may well be stronger.

Also still trucking along close to due west, 20mph is a decent speed, I think it maybe slightly slowing down now but nothing major just yet.

PS, GFS is north of 15N by 46W at 00z (around 15.1)...lets see how that pans out.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

This could go straight to Hurricane when Recon gets in there. It already looks really good and makes Isaac looks sad compared to it for most of Isaac's life.
Let's hope this one does actually recurve. I don't believe it will occur until much furhter west, if at all. The modesl have consistently been underestimating the ridge in the Atlantic this year, curving storms out prematurely imo. I would be watchign intently if I lived on the islands. (I'm sure they are!)

[SouthDadeFish]

We now have Leslie!

TROPICAL STORM LESLIE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
200 PM EDT THU AUG 30 2012

...TROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 41041 AND SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWELVE HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO CHANGE TO
THE TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECAST IS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

THIS IS THE SECOND-EARLIEST FORMATION OF THE 12TH NAMED STORM ON
RECORD IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...ECLIPSED ONLY BY LUIS OF 1995.


SUMMARY OF 0200 PM...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE