ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

This view gives a reference for the size of Kirk

[JGrin87]

How many Kirks could you fit in Texas?

9?

[Janie2006]

Kirk is living up to his namesake....a swashbuckling, no-holds barred captain.

Seriously, though, an impressive little system, "little" being the operative word here. Hurricane-force winds extending 10 miles from the center, could ramp up in a hurry. Small storms can be very intense. It'll be great watching him go......from a distance.

[tolakram]

Higher Res view

[SouthDadeFish]

Here was a 91 GHz microwave pass earlier of Kirk at about 8AM EDT. Even at that time, Kirk had a well defined eye. Since then, he has only strengthened:

[KWT]

I have few doubts that this will be a major hurricane once all is said and done, its wrapped up really nicely and still strengthening from the looks of things.

[Cainer]

Not sure how many people remember Carlos from the EPAC in 2009, but he was another micro-cane that Kirk bears a resemblance to:



Carlos peaked as a 105 MPH Cat 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirk peak somewhere around there as well.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Hes a cool little storm...Anyone hace a overlay of what he is in size compared to Marco...I always found him neat as well..

[ozonepete]

This is the first time I ever wanted to call a hurricane "cute". lol

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 75kts

AL, 11, 2012083018, , BEST, 0, 277N, 500W, 75, 984, HU

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[Macrocane]

Carlos peaked as a 105 MPH Cat 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirk peak somewhere around there as well.

I remmeber Carlos because I was really annoyed that it wasn't upgraded to cat 3 when satellite presentation was really really good but they stuck to Dvorak underestimates.

[Zanthe]

...KIRK RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC...

Expected to reach 110 MPH now, but could probably easily become our first major hurricane. My opinion only.

[Cyclenall]

Carlos peaked as a 105 MPH Cat 2, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Kirk peak somewhere around there as well.

I remmeber Carlos because I was really annoyed that it wasn't upgraded to cat 3 when satellite presentation was really really good but they stuck to Dvorak underestimates.

Same here, I think it was a CAT3 as well. Carlos was one of the more interesting TC's that year.

Hurricane Kirk is super organized and tiny!! I've been waiting for a tiny storm for a while now. I agree with others thinking a major out of Kirk; seems to be the backdoor cyclone of the season (not expected by models or the NHC). The global models have trouble with small hurricanes like this one, Felix (2007), TS Marco (2008), and probably Charley (2004). The odd part of this one is the eye was super clear and round but then became less so quickly after. Reason?

This is one of those storms that actually looks like the name.

[Macrocane]

True, I'm not sure why but rapidly intensifying systems sometimes tend to shrink their eyes. By the way, I would have put the intensity at 85-90 kt right now.

[cycloneye]

It has a great shot to be a Major.

INIT 30/2100Z 28.2N 50.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 31/0600Z 29.5N 50.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 31/1800Z 31.8N 50.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 34.4N 49.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 37.5N 46.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

[CrazyC83]

Dvorak does poorly with small storms too, so Cat 2 might be a reasonable guess right now.

[brunota2003]

Yes, my indicator did pop up for this system. I just came back from the field late last night, so I missed getting to do a forecast of any type.

It appeared around 03 UTC (11 pm EDT)...which would cause the onset of RI to be between 07 to 09 UTC (3 to 5 am EDT). Intensity at 03 UTC was 50 knots, per NHC advisories...which would mean Kirk would RI to at least 80 knots by 11 pm EDT tonight (it is at 80 knots as of the 5 pm EDT advisory).

[Ptarmigan]

Kirk is a small storm. I think it will be a major hurricane soon. Kirk could be our first major hurricane. Looks like again more storms have formed in the open Atlantic going back to 2010.

[hurricanes1234]

90 mph?! Wow! And it still has the chance to intensify even more! Also, Leslie is expected to become a Category 2 hurricane! An interesting period is to come within the next week or two, for sure!
My personal prediction for these storms:
1. Kirk is a 90 mph storm right now, because it rapidly strengthened from 75 mph to 90 mph in just 6 hours. Therefore, given the favorable conditions ahead, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility, especially as Kirk is a small hurricane. I would give the system a 50-70% chance of peaking as a major hurricane, and it will be the first of the season, if it is able to overcome the minor issues, which I am pretty sure it would. Throughout its life so far as a tropical cyclone, Kirk has been an overachiever, strengthening into a hurricane from a previously deteriorating tropical wave that was thought to dissipate in somewhat hostile conditions, without even becoming a tropical depression.

2. Leslie is steadily intensifying, it is now a weak tropical storm, from a newly-formed depression just 6 hours ago. Given the hospitable conditions ahead, I would expect this to strengthen into a major hurricane, but gradually. Then, it should weaken in about 5 days, and become extratropical around the time of passing near to Bermuda.

Even better yet, these storms are not likely to impact land, except Leslie could have effects on Bermuda. But, most likely by the time it reaches there, if it does, it would probably be a weak storm. We have two fishes to watch!

[Cyclenall]

ALTHOUGH KIRK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A RELATIVELY COMPACT
CYCLONE...WHICH MAKES IT VULNERABLE TO SLIGHT INCREASES IN VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF NEARBY DRY AIR...

I thought small/compact hurricanes weren't as vulnerable to dry air as larger ones? I think I disagree with this one, especially considering it was contradicted earlier in the discussion: "KIRK APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ABLE TO OVERCOME ANY DRY AIR ISSUES".

I believe this is also the first tropical cyclone of the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season to officially undergo Rapid Intensification. I certainly didn't expect it to be this one a few days ago!!