ATL: LESLIE - Models

[Jevo]

yeah it looks like this run wants to make Leslie a problem possibly for a Azores..

12z GFS +186

[ROCK]

12Z NOGAPS

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[LarryWx]

Fwiw, the 12Z GFS ensemble mean is a sharp recurve before the L.A.'s, which is similar to the prior three GFS ens. runs. I haven't seen a single model run of any model since yesterday that avoids the sharp recurve.

[Jevo]

12z Euro Initialized

[ROCK]

been waiting on this run...EURO does seem to throw curve balls every once in awhile....wonder if it will set a trend this run....

[Jevo]

12z Euro +24

[LarryWx]

been waiting on this run...EURO does seem to throw curve balls every once in awhile....wonder if it will set a trend this run....

12Z Euro still recurves sharply near 60W. It still almost stalls it SE of Bermuda though not as far west as the 0Z run.. Let's see if it approaches New England again. I'm guessing not as close based on the 5 day position.

[ROCK]

been waiting on this run...EURO does seem to throw curve balls every once in awhile....wonder if it will set a trend this run....

12Z Euro still recurves sharply near 60W. It still almost stalls it SE of Bermuda though not as far west. Let's see if it approaches New England again. I'm guessing not as close based on the 5 day position.

thanks Larry....sounds like you have access to EURO runs before they hit the net....you will come in handy if we have something threatening the islands / CONUS..

[Jevo]

12z Euro +48



12z Euro +72

[Jevo]

12z Euro +96



12z Euro +120



12z Euro +144

[Jevo]

12z Euro +168

[Jevo]

12z Euro +192



12z Euro +216

[rainstorm]

are those isaacs remains off the SE?

[Jevo]

are those isaacs remains off the SE?

Jumped the gun on those.. I had clicked 0z and wasnt paying attention.. ill update the post above when 192 and 216 come out

*Updated... and im not sure but it's def another low of some sort

[rainstorm]

I SEE

[southerngale]

Euro doesn't move Leslie much from hours 120-168, then it moves NW on hours 192 and 216.

[LarryWx]

are those isaacs remains off the SE?

I'd say to some extent. They seem to be some sort of offshoot from a combo of Isaac and a trof/front with which it had earlier gotten tangled. The 0Z Euro had had something similar. After moving futher offshore the SE US, in both runs, Leslie absorbs it as it moves toward the north. On the 12Z, Leslie approaches Nova Scotia (east of the 0Z Euro's approach to N.E.).

[Jevo]

12z Euro +240

[drezee]

12z Euro has a little fujiwara then hello Maine...there is a High to the NE... it would likely move NNW from the 240 position...yuck for Maine on this run

[cycloneye]

18z Models.

Code: Select all

048
WHXX01 KWBC 301846
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1846 UTC THU AUG 30 2012
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE LESLIE (AL122012) 20120830 1800 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        120830  1800   120831  0600   120831  1800   120901  0600
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    14.2N  44.5W   15.3N  46.4W   16.9N  48.9W   18.9N  51.9W
BAMD    14.2N  44.5W   14.9N  47.1W   15.8N  49.4W   16.8N  51.4W
BAMM    14.2N  44.5W   15.3N  46.9W   16.7N  49.4W   18.4N  52.0W
LBAR    14.2N  44.5W   15.0N  47.8W   16.1N  51.5W   16.9N  55.1W
SHIP        40KTS          52KTS          64KTS          76KTS
DSHP        40KTS          52KTS          64KTS          76KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        120901  1800   120902  1800   120903  1800   120904  1800
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    20.7N  55.3W   23.2N  60.9W   24.9N  63.8W   27.4N  60.4W
BAMD    18.0N  53.0W   20.8N  55.8W   25.4N  56.4W   30.2N  54.6W
BAMM    19.9N  54.8W   22.8N  59.1W   26.6N  61.5W   29.2N  61.3W
LBAR    17.8N  58.1W   20.2N  62.0W   25.1N  62.1W   31.3N  61.4W
SHIP        86KTS          95KTS          98KTS          98KTS
DSHP        86KTS          95KTS          98KTS          98KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  14.2N LONCUR =  44.5W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR =  18KT
LATM12 =  13.6N LONM12 =  40.8W DIRM12 = 275DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
LATM24 =  13.4N LONM24 =  37.3W
WNDCUR =   40KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  250NM SDEPTH =   M
RD34NE =   40NM RD34SE =   30NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =  40NM