ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[artist]

Wondering how much rain Isaacs is going to give where I live. We are very dry but I don't want to stay inside the whole Labor Day weekend.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
ILC053-075-091-105-INC007-073-089-111-127-310000-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL
553 AM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 /653 AM EDT THU AUG 30 2012/

...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAAC WILL MOVE NORTH INTO THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HIGH
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL RATES THAT OFTEN OCCUR WITH INLAND
TROPICAL SYSTEMS. THE PRECISE PATH OF THE SYSTEM REMNANTS REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS BY LATE SUNDAY AT OR IN EXCESS OF TWO TO FIVE INCHES
ACROSS PARTS OF THE KANKAKEE AND VERMILION RIVER BASINS AND
SOUTHWARD. THIS INCLUDES THE IROQUOIS RIVER...AND INDIAN AND SUGAR
CREEKS.

WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE PRIMARILY BEEN DRY FOR MANY MONTHS AND MOST
STREAM FLOWS ARE BELOW NORMAL...THERE WAS RECENTLY HEAVY RAIN ON
AUGUST 26TH THAT MAY HAVE LOCALLY LOWERED THE GROUNDS WATER
CAPACITY. ALSO...IF HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WERE TO OCCUR...THESE CAN
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING AND QUICK RISES ON SMALLER BASIN STREAMS AT
ANY TIME...EVEN WHEN EXPERIENCING PROLONGED DROUGHT.

THOSE WITH HYDROLOGIC INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
OUTLOOKS AND FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND AS THE FORECAST IS FURTHER REFINED
http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwat ... hydrologic outlook

[artist]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 324 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...OCEAN SPRINGS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 318 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE WEST OF VANCLEAVE OVER THE NEXT 15 MINUTES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

[cycloneye]

The last advisory was written at 4 PM CDT.

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT4 AND WMO HEADER WTNT34
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 10 PM CDT.

[gone2beach]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 324 PM CDT THU AUG 30 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... WESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ST. MARTIN...OCEAN SPRINGS... * UNTIL 400 PM CDT * AT 318 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED A TORNADO NEAR ST. MARTIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE WEST OF VANCLEAVE OVER THE NEXT 15 MINUTES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS UNDER A WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

It has now been extended till 10 PM for:

MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAMS ATTALA BOLIVAR
CARROLL CHOCTAW CLAIBORNE
CLARKE CLAY COPIAH
COVINGTON FORREST FRANKLIN
GEORGE GREENE GRENADA
HANCOCK HARRISON HINDS
HOLMES HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
JACKSON JASPER JEFFERSON
JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER
LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE
LEAKE LEFLORE LINCOLN
LOWNDES MADISON MARION
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER
PERRY PIKE RANKIN
SCOTT SHARKEY SIMPSON
SMITH STONE SUNFLOWER
WALTHALL WARREN WASHINGTON
WAYNE WEBSTER WINSTON
YAZOO
$$


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...BMX...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricane_Luis]

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...

See ya in 2018, if it hasn't been retired

[Janie2006]

Time for Bones??

*bounces*

[CrazyC83]

It's not post-tropical though. NHC transfers to HPC once a TD inland not expected to emerge over water.

[somethingfunny]

No Bones by a long shot yet. Some of the models are even maintaining Isaac's vorticity until it emerges off the East Coast.... and possibly redevelops. But way before that. we've still got this massive rainstorm that will slowly work its' way north.

[jaxfladude]

Prayers to all.

[jaxfladude]

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...

See ya in 2018, if it hasn't been retired

I can not see how it is NOT retired.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

It's not post-tropical though. NHC transfers to HPC once a TD inland not expected to emerge over water.

I fixed the title to put Issac -Tropical Depression.

[KBBOCA]

I saw where Jeff Masters said that 'Category 1' isn't a good way to label Isaac... sure, that's what category his winds fell under, but his impact is much greater than most category one storms we've seen.

I am not crazy about the whole category thing because I think the lower categories make people too complacent, but I haven't exactly come up with a better system, either. Tropical Storm Allison also proved that you don't even need a category to cause horrific damage and death.

Agreed on both points. I think the current category system is quite misleading, but the problem is the impacts are quite unique to each storm. Is it storm surge? Size? Stall? Inland flooding risk? Each storm presents its own mix of dangers due to the storm itself, and also the geography / population of the area affected.

A few weeks ago I think it was, I came across something online about a proposed Storm Severity Index. I think it was mets from Impact Weather who were working on this. I posted something in Talking Tropics.

UPDATE: Here's the link to the thread: viewtopic.php?f=31&t=113294

Most of what I read was historical analysis comparing storms of different sizes and their impacts due to total windfield, and also storm surge, etc. I haven't seen any attempt to use it PREDICTIVELY for current storms, but I'd be very interested in learning more if such alternate categorizations are being explored.

Likewise, I'd be a fan of some modification of the tracking cone - perhaps keeping it as is, but adding an additional graphic to show potential "swath of impact" three days out which would be related to storm size, windfield, rain rates, surge risk, etc.

[KBBOCA]

I'm still following Isaac both on the board and TWC day and night and I am in SW FL with no contacts on the northern gulf shores. My heart is breaking for all the devastation and lives destroyed once again.

Ditto Hurricane Queen. I'm still following and very sad at all the suffering and destruction, and I'm currently overseas. It always does frustrate me a bit how quiet the board goes after landfall. I am wanting to hear stories of how the storm has affected people and know more of its impacts in different areas. For me that is as interesting as the tracking up until landfall, though that perhaps smacks a bit of "voyeurism." But actually hearing more about how a given storm affects various areas has helped me learn how to prepare over the years, and I find it helpful in understanding storms.

[TCmet]

Time for Bones??

*bounces*

This thing won't be dead for at least another week. HPC 5-day has 8"+ all through the Ohio Valley, and I suspect into New York and New England as well. Flooding impacts have just started, imo.

[KBBOCA]

Wondering if I've missed a link or anywhere to view any of Aric's data on landfall from his chase?

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well after no rains today Isaac is getting the last laugh once aagain as a narrow but stout feeder band is set up over my house all the way to gulf. Will be so glad when this is over. Although we didn't get close to the Rain Amount s forecasted plenty wet enough. Feel bad for neighbors In MS who just couldn't catch a break. The eye or center came within 10 miles of my house and we never lost electricity or trees. Highest wind was about 60 and got about 6.5in of rain. While Biloxi and Gulfport 100 miles away got pounded 10x's as bad.

[WeatherGuesser]

HPC 5-day has 8"+ all through the Ohio Valley, and I suspect into New York and New England as well. Flooding impacts have just started, imo.

Maybe some surface and creek flooding, but rivers like the Missouri, Mississippi and the Ohio are all at near record low levels, so they can take quite a lot of runoff with no problem. I suppose there could be problems with some parts of the Ohio later on if this tracks along the length of it like the 5 day projections show.

[capepoint]

Still quite a lot of flooding in southern Mississippi. My Aunt in Moss Point says water currently rising, about to go into the house. A lot of this flooding is being made worse by the opening of flood gates and dam spillways in Alabama. Sounds horribly similar to Floyd in eastern NC a few years ago........

[MONTEGUT_LA]

well my friends we will be heading back in the morning. So for we found out, my father's old house that has been in our family forever has damage. The winds took out the carport and looks like the roof is about to cave in. No word on my house in Pointe-Aux-Chenes, yet. I know the area had more trees and power lines down than flooding. My brother said the water was topping over the leeve and then it recede, back and forth. But so for my house is dry!! And the power should be back on tomorrow.

[Buck]

...SLOW-MOVING ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI...

See ya in 2018, if it hasn't been retired

I can not see how it is NOT retired.

Ditto. Isaac has made his last appearance in this ocean.