ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HarryPotter]

Yeah... I'm in Connecticut... I'm watching Leslie... The Euro has me concerned, but then again...10 days away, a lot can change. My bet is on a fish storm, but better prepared...

[rainstorm]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Enough on this. Already showing Weatherbell subscribers why there could be hurricane threat on east coast based on pattern in 10 days. i assume he is referring to leslie.

[Aric Dunn]

still NW to nnw at the buoy pressure still falling at 1005mb probably close to 1003 in the center maybe lower. Also still no turn. due west

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Looking very nice. Probably up to 50 mph/60 mph at 11pm EDT.

[SFLcane]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Enough on this. Already showing Weatherbell subscribers why there could be hurricane threat on east coast based on pattern in 10 days. i assume he is referring to leslie.

Dont think he is thinking in terms of kirk or leslie but possibly the wave about to move of the african coast.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Just looking the the satellite frames...orginally was thinking, wow! Taking the turn, a fish! Then I carefully looked at the COC and it it obvious it is moving west or a few degrees north of west.

[alienstorm]

Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.

[rainstorm]

ah, thats what he said on weatherbell?

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.

So Leslie could hit the east coast...just curious and not being sarcastic...under what circumstances?

[alienstorm]

ah, thats what he said on weatherbell?

Yes

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Yeah... I'm in Connecticut... I'm watching Leslie... The Euro has me concerned, but then again...10 days away, a lot can change. My bet is on a fish storm, but better prepared...

I'll be watching with you Harry Potter..afraid it it comes into the mid-Atlantic and New England, people may disregard its intensity, because Irene was originally forecasted to make landfall up here as a Cat2.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

If this if upgraded to 50kts at 11...technically if it strengthens to 55 or 60kts by morning...it's RI.
Edit: I doubt it gets above 55kts...but you never know, and also making a point.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Cycloneye, do you see this moving WNW by morning...what are the chances it's moving below 280?

[fasterdisaster]

Joe Bastardi is referring to Issac and Leslie, Issac redeveloping off the mid-atlantic coast.

So Leslie could hit the east coast...just curious and not being sarcastic...under what circumstances?

I believe the thinking is that once Kirk heads north, the ridging will build back in 4-5 days out. Where Leslie goes from there is unclear.

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye, do you see this moving WNW by morning...what are the chances it's moving below 280?

Well,I am not a pro met. I am only guided by what the scientists at NHC tells us. I only can say that if Leslie reaches 50W and is south of 15N,then the extreme NE Leeward islands may get some weather from it in the form of some bands.

[brunota2003]

If this if upgraded to 50kts at 11...technically if it strengthens to 55 or 60kts by morning...it's RI.
Edit: I doubt it gets above 55kts...but you never know, and also making a point.

Operationally, yes...but in the final analysis? Probably not...it probably was a TS before they named it, so that would mean it has intensified "less" than what operationally suggests.

[SouthDadeFish]

Fresh microwave:

[JamesCaneTracker]

Both the Euro and GFS now take Leslie to just south-East of my State, Maine, by the end of the Forecast run. You better believe this has my attention.

[mulaman984]

What are the chances this thing does not turn and enters GOM? Is e NHC ever this wrong ?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

Up to 45kts.

AL, 12, 2012083100, , BEST, 0, 145N, 459W, 45, 1002, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest