Isabel Track Discussion

[wxman57]

Wow, another storm that developed SO rapidly that the NHC didn't have time to even call it a depression before it became a storm! Yeah, right....

NOGAPS and GFS are very similar to the tropical models. All models take Isabel WNW through 5 days. There's a very strong ridge building in the wake of Fabian. Typically the storm behind such a strong hurricane would track a bit farther to the south at least initially, due to the stronger ridge to the north. This seems reasonable for Isabel.

It's the part beyond 5 days that I have concerns about. The GFS takes Isabel VERY close to the islands of the NE Caribbean if not right over them. Here's day 7:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_156m.gif

Notice the complex pattern north of Isabel at 700mb at 156hrs:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156m.gif

If you rely on the GFS for the track of Isabel beyond day 5 or 6, then you have to believe how it is handling the remnants of Henri and the pattern in the wake of Henri. Is the GFS handling the ridge off the east U.S. coast well by day 7? Could the ridge actually build farther south into the tropics behind Henri? I think that's a distinct possibility.

So, I think that Isabel could take a track very similar to Fabian at first, but a tad to the south of Fabian's track. But the projected weakness in the ridge is farther west and a bit weaker than the weakness that allowed Fabian to turn north. So Isabel may well hit the northeast Caribbean before it reaches the weakness in the ridge to the north. Isabel could track very near the islands of the NE Caribbean by the end of next week. Beyond that point, it is too early to tell if Isabel will turn north before reaching the east U.S. coast as Fabian did. We CAN say that it looks unlikely that Isabel will track through the Caribbean and reach the Gulf of Mexico. There is at least a chance it could affect the east U.S. coast in 12-14 days - a LONG way out!

Concernng intensity, Isabel is showing some signs of a bit of easterly shear now, but that shear should relax as it moves west and slows down after 3-4 days. There's an excellent chance it will become the next hurricane, and possibly another major hurricane.

Behind Isabel is another strong disturbance just coming off the coast of Africa. Convection is holding up nicely, and we could have Juan forming in 2-4 days. Too early to worry about where that one would go.

[cycloneye]

Not looking good for the northern islands 57 as it is tracking south of Fabians one but time will tell if I have to put out the shutters.