ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[x-y-no]

Developing some strong convection near the center now ...

[JamesCaneTracker]

I know its to early to tell but everyone keeps talking about Florida what about NC anyones thoughts on what you think of it getting into our coast or close?

1 Model does show a South Carolina Landfall in Charleston County... and then another model does show a North Carolina Landfall.

[x-y-no]

I know its to early to tell but everyone keeps talking about Florida what about NC anyones thoughts on what you think of it getting into our coast or close?

I'd say the strongest probability is still that it's only a threat to Bermuda. That said, it's certainly not out of the realm of possibility that if the slow-down the models depict starting day 3 lasts long enough, some ridging could build over it and push it in your direction. Certainly enough of a possibility that your area and the coast north of you should continue to monitor this system.


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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[pgoss11]

I know its to early to tell but everyone keeps talking about Florida what about NC anyones thoughts on what you think of it getting into our coast or close?

1 Model does show a South Carolina Landfall in Charleston County... and then another model does show a North Carolina Landfall.

Do you haver a link to those models?

[Hurricaneman]

Developing some strong convection near the center now ...

http://i.imgur.com/2DnXP.jpg

that center you're mentioning is the MLC, the surface low if you look at the visible is at the NE end of the convection, this is not vertically stacked

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ROCK]

only a matter of time now...the weakness it there

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

[floridasun78]

ok guys and ladys we need see one how strong she is and how high rebuild to see if she will be fish or pass near Bermuda remember i say other system MODELS WILL STIFT as their more data put in them best thing to do see what NHC say staytune

[x-y-no]

Developing some strong convection near the center now ...

http://i.imgur.com/2DnXP.jpg

that center you're mentioning is the MLC, the surface low if you look at the visible is at the NE end of the convection, this is not vertically stacked

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Maybe your eyes are better than mine. I make the LLC at about 16.6N 50.3W. I'd call that "near" the strong convection. I'll agree it's NE of the strongest convection, but not right on the edge of the blob.

[Anthysteg00]

Leslie has done an impressive job combating the dry air since she formed. Perhaps out first major seeing as how Kirk has recently began to weaken a bit?

A nice fish storm to end this harsh month of August, we'll take that. We used to call these things "September Storms" down here where I live, so we'll see how going into this next month things will go...

[Frank2]

When you say the forecast track are similar to Andrew I assume you mean that at this point Andrew was also forecast to re-curve in a similar manner or are you saying the forecast currently for leslie has her doing what Andrew ultimately did? Thanks!

Yes, that's correct - Andrew was originally thought to head northeast with a trough once it became sheared, but the trough lifted out fairly quickly and Andrew became trapped under a strong ridge that moved off the US East Coast...

Frank Frank (lol)

[x-y-no]

I was a bit too far north. Best track has her at 16.4N 50.3W, 55kt, 999mb.

[Anthysteg00]

When you say the forecast track are similar to Andrew I assume you mean that at this point Andrew was also forecast to re-curve in a similar manner or are you saying the forecast currently for leslie has her doing what Andrew ultimately did? Thanks!

Yes, that's correct - Andrew was originally thought to head northeast with a trough once it became sheared, but the trough lifted out fairly quickly and Andrew became trapped under a strong ridge that moved off the US East Coast...

Frank Frank (lol)

Seems a logical scenario, IMO. But I suspect given that we are much closer to September the troughs will likely be a bit too strong. Leslie has gaining a significant amount of latitude recently, I suspected dry air would keep it in check but Leslie currently has an intimidating core of convection and without wind shear abundant she will likely bully the dry air.

Are there any other comparisons to Andrew that exist with the current synoptic pattern that we haven't seen? I realize GFS and EURO show the storm getting trapped ...

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the center is being sucked into the convection, could this be a start of pretty good intensification

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Developing some strong convection near the center now ...

http://i.imgur.com/2DnXP.jpg

that center you're mentioning is the MLC, the surface low if you look at the visible is at the NE end of the convection, this is not vertically stacked

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Maybe your eyes are better than mine. I make the LLC at about 16.6N 50.3W. I'd call that "near" the strong convection. I'll agree it's NE of the strongest convection, but not right on the edge of the blob.

After watching this some more, I think x-y-no is right. The LLC looks to have consolidated under the convection now. The other, smaller LLC to the northeast is dissipating. Some shear is still going on, but it seems to be a little lighter and is turning from northeasterly to easterly which has less affect on a westward moving TC anyway. Looks to be ramping up.

[tolakram]

Latest




Live Loop zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live Loop zoom 1: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Live Loop IR zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[otowntiger]

that center you're mentioning is the MLC, the surface low if you look at the visible is at the NE end of the convection, this is not vertically stacked

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Maybe your eyes are better than mine. I make the LLC at about 16.6N 50.3W. I'd call that "near" the strong convection. I'll agree it's NE of the strongest convection, but not right on the edge of the blob.

After watching this some more, I think x-y-no is right. The LLC looks to have consolidated under the convection now. The other, smaller LLC to the northeast is dissipating. Some shear is still going on, but it seems to be a little lighter and is turning from northeasterly to easterly which has less affect on a westward moving TC anyway. Looks to be ramping up.

and turning more northwesterly, no?

[ozonepete]

After watching this some more, I think x-y-no is right. The LLC looks to have consolidated under the convection now. The other, smaller LLC to the northeast is dissipating. Some shear is still going on, but it seems to be a little lighter and is turning from northeasterly to easterly which has less affect on a westward moving TC anyway. Looks to be ramping up.

and turning more northwesterly, no?

Actually, no, I don't see that. Appears still west or west-northwest.

[ozonepete]

Looks like the center is being sucked into the convection, could this be a start of pretty good intensification

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

So we have a consensus now pretty much.
Let's see how much it can kick up.

[ozonepete]

and turning more northwesterly, no?

Actually, no, I don't see that. Appears still west or west-northwest.

I think there was an illusion of a northwest turn because the LLC has expanded and also gotten elongated a little from SW to NE.

[ozonepete]

Okay, otown, I see it now. It's a little early to be sure, but yes, I do think the track may have shifted a little more northwesterly now.