ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

These sheared systems can be tricky on the track. They don't always follow the track, because it is tough for models to simulate the bursting and relocation of centers. All in all, the area of low pressure as a whole follows the model guidance. You can get short term motions that seems weird. Be patient and look at the track in at least 6 hour steps.

[dixiebreeze]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2946/11273981.jpg

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

[smw1981]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2946/11273981.jpg

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

At least she's pretty!! I agree, she looks pretty good...

[ozonepete]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

This finally looks like serious RI for the first time this season.

[Riptide]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2946/11273981.jpg

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

At least she's pretty!! I agree, she looks pretty good...

I'm concerned that the LLC is still on the north side the convection, hard to make a call without visible confirmation.

[Zanthe]

Guys, if you think this is the first good looking system, or first system that's gone through RI...*cough* Gordon *cough* Kirk *Cough*

[Riptide]

Guys, if you think this is the first good looking system, or first system that's gone through RI...*cough* Gordon *cough* Kirk *Cough*

This is the first major RI event in the main development region, Leslie is also much larger than Kirk or Gordon. It definitely stands apart from the rest.

[Incoming!]

At least she's pretty!!...

Indeed she is! I'll find this particular one to be a whole lot prettier though after she gains a bit more latitude.

[galaxy401]

Microwave passes should tell us where the center is in the convection.

[bermudashorts]

Sitting here in Bermuda she looks pretty ugly to me!!

[sandyb]

I know its to early to tell but everyone keeps talking about Florida what about NC anyones thoughts on what you think of it getting into our coast or close?

I'm getting that gitchy feeling down here. That one I always get about a week before a storm comes really close to me.

we for sure don't need a storm with as much rain as we have had the past two week here in Carteret Co my yard is still under water is places

[ozonepete]

This is way up on an upswing right now. From what I can tell from rgb and avn satellite loops (and after learning from Aric, the best at this) I circled where I think the LLC is. I think we'll have a visible eye by late tonight. Wow are those cloud tops cold!

[cycloneye]

No change on intensity and center is at 17.1N.

00z Best Track

AL, 12, 2012090100, , BEST, 0, 171N, 520W, 55, 999, TS

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[cycloneye]

Fresh microwave reveals the real story.

[wxman57]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2946/11273981.jpg

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

Yeah, looks good if the center was in the middle of the deep convection, but it isn't. I believe it's on the northern edge of that convection. Still fighting NE shear. Not a hurricane.

Edit:
Ah, yes - see the microwave image above this post. Satellite imagery can be QUITE deceiving.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

It could just be fooling me, but appears to be moving south of due west.

[ozonepete]

I'd say Leslie has acquired enough organization to be declared a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale. Deep convection has persisted on top of the center during DMIN for several hours and outflow remains impressive in all four directions.

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/2946/11273981.jpg

Best looking organization I've seen all season and it's not being called? Hmmm.

Yeah, looks good if the center was in the middle of the deep convection, but it isn't. I believe it's on the northern edge of that convection. Still fighting NE shear. Not a hurricane.

Edit:
Ah, yes - see the microwave image above this post. Satellite imagery can be QUITE deceiving.

Ah, but the LLC is moving toward the center of the convection and that's why I got 16.7 57.2 an hour later. Even if I'm off by .3 degrees latitude or so it looks from the satellite loops since late this afternoon that the low level center is moving more and more under the convection. I see a strengthening TC, not a struggling one, at the moment.

[Caribwxgirl]

It would be nice to just be able to admire a well developed large system that has no potential for landfall. So far I must admit the NHC has been pretty good so I suspect (and) hope this just goes to sea just as they are predicting. If any thing Isaac has taught me is that I can't trust just the satellite pics as they don't tell the full story.

[cycloneye]

I hope that in the near future QuickScat is back to not only depend on a microwave.

[ozonepete]

I hope that in the near future QuickScat is back to not only depend on a microwave.

Boy would that be great! ASCAT makes these tiny little slices and we never know if it'll miss the storm. But I'm not complainin'. Well, ok, maybe I am...