EPAC: ILEANA - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

EP, 09, 2012083118, , BEST, 0, 222N, 1158W, 60, 987, TS, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1006, 220, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ILEANA, D,

Down to a TS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ILEANA HAS DETERIORATED OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS...WITH AN OVERALL COOLING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER
AND SIGNS THAT DRY AIR IS NOW WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE CIRCULATION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. STEADY WEAKENING IS
FORECAST AS ILEANA MOVES OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD AND IS NOW A LITTLE BELOW THE INTENSITY
MODEL CONESNUS. ILEANA SHOULD BECOME A REMANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY 5 DAY IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO TURN
MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOON AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A WESTWARD TURN IS EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS AS
THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A BIT SOUTHWARD
AGAIN THIS CYCLE AND SO HAS THE NHC FORECAST...WHICH WAS ADJUSTED
TOWARD THE NEW TVCE CONSENSUS. THE NEW FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND
SHOWS A SOUTHWARD TURN BY DAY 5...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 22.4N 116.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 22.8N 117.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 23.3N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 23.6N 120.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 23.8N 122.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 03/1800Z 24.0N 125.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 04/1800Z 24.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 23.5N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Doubt Ileana will be around much longer.

[Hurricane_Luis]

awsome image of a weakening Ileana

[Yellow Evan]

I'd go with 55 knots now.

[Kingarabian]

I'd go with 55 knots now.

As of now, her structure has improved compared to earlier when she was a 70mph storm; and its getting colder clouds back... Maybe back to a hurricane.

BT doesn't agree with me however.

[Yellow Evan]

What does the RBT put it at then?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 31 2012

ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEEN WARMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH
ILEANA...THE TROPICAL STORM STILL HAS WELL-DEFINED BANDING
FEATURES. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS WERE 55 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND
SAB...AND THE ADT VALUES FROM UW-CIMSS WERE SLIGHTLY LOWER. BASED
ON THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...THE INITIAL WIND
SPEED IS LOWERED A LITTLE TO 55 KT. ILEANA IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C
WATERS...AND THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER PROGRESSIVELY
COLDER WATER AND MOVE INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THEREFORE...STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED WITH
DEGENERATION TO A REMNANT LOW EXPECTED BY 36 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME
ILEANA IS FORECAST TO BE OVER WATERS NEAR 21C.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/7. A GRADUAL BEND TO THE WEST IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A RIDGE LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO BUILDS WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. ONCE
ILEANA BECOMES SHALLOW IN NATURE...IT WILL LIKELY TURN A LITTLE
SOUTH OF DUE WEST STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 22.6N 116.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 23.0N 117.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 23.3N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 23.5N 121.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z 23.6N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0000Z 23.5N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0000Z 23.0N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like I was correct.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like rapid weakening is about to commence. NHC has this at 35 knots in 24 hours (by 8 pm EDT, really). I say it will be a swirl devoid of convection.

[Yellow Evan]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like rapid weakening is about to commence. NHC has this at 35 knots in 24 hours (by 8 pm EDT, really). I say it will be a swirl devoid of convection.

Might weaken a little slower than that IMO, D-Max is only 12 hours away, so it will have a shot to come back slightly.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 010846
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

THE CIRCULATION OF ILEANA IS OVER COOL WATERS...ABOUT 24 DEGREES
CELSIUS. THE CONVECTION HAS DECREASED...AND ONLY A FEW PATCHES OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN A FEW BANDS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEAKENING TREND...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND ILEANA IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS OR SOONER.

ILEANA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED AND IS RAPIDLY BECOMING A SHALLOW
SYSTEM...IT WILL BE STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL
DISSIPATION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 22.7N 117.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 23.0N 119.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 23.0N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0600Z 23.0N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/0600Z 23.0N 127.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/0600Z 23.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/0600Z 23.0N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Yellow Evan]

Take that back, it might even be a TD tonight.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 AM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

ILEANA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS NOW DISAPPEARED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 45 KT
BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST SATELLITE ESTIMATES...BUT THIS COULD
BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. WITH THE CYCLONE EXPECTED TO CROSS THE 23C
ISOTHERM SOON...WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND ILEANA IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE ENTIRELY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AS THE REMNANT LOW IS STEERED BY THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL
RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...
FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE LATEST CYCLE OF GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 23.0N 118.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 23.1N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 23.2N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0000Z 23.0N 124.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1200Z 22.8N 125.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1200Z 22.5N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1200Z 22.0N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

It seems almost poof now to me IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 012038
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

ILEANA IS NOW VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR A FEW SMALL CELLS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE 35-KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST DVORAK FINAL-T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ILEANA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS...AND THE
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...
THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER IF DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/09. ILEANA SHOULD TURN SOUTH OF
DUE WEST IN A DAY OR SO AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES STEERED BY THE
NORTHEAST PACIFIC LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NEW NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN
SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AS THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SHOWING A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION AFTER 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 23.1N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 23.1N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 23.0N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/0600Z 22.7N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/1800Z 22.4N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 04/1800Z 21.5N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 05/1800Z 20.5N 133.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like rapid weakening is about to commence. NHC has this at 35 knots in 24 hours (by 8 pm EDT, really). I say it will be a swirl devoid of convection.

It's only been 18 hours and you appear to be correct. Congrats.

[brunota2003]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looks like rapid weakening is about to commence. NHC has this at 35 knots in 24 hours (by 8 pm EDT, really). I say it will be a swirl devoid of convection.

It's only been 18 hours and you appear to be correct. Congrats.

Yes and no. There is still some convection over the center...but very little. There was a burst of oranges on AVN, but that is now dissipating it appears.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 020255
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ILEANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092012
800 PM PDT SAT SEP 01 2012

ALTHOUGH ILEANA IS OVER WATERS NEAR 22C...A SMALL AREA OF COLD CLOUD
TOPS HAVE PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS NEAR THE CENTER. A
BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
UW-CIMSS SUPPORT MAINTAINING ILEANA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM
FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK OVER EVEN COLDER
WATER DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH IN COMBINATION WITH STABLE
AIR TO ITS WEST SHOULD CAUSE ILEANA TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY. THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUAL
WEAKEN DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND DISSIPATE IN
4 TO 5 DAYS.

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT ILEANA IS NOW MOVING DUE
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. ILEANA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED
TO TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT IS
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 23.1N 120.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 23.0N 121.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 22.8N 123.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 03/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/0000Z 22.1N 127.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 130.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/0000Z 19.5N 134.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

[Hurricane_Luis]

Ileana weakens to a TD

...ILEANA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...