ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

Little Kirk just couldn't keep it together long enough.

[Fyzn94]

...itsy bitsy cyclone went up those waters cold...

[hurricanes1234]

Continues to fall apart...

This is not the Kirk we know.

[hurricanes1234]

Best track down to 80 knots (90 mph). The potential of Kirk reaching major hurricane strength is almost nil at this point. It is the last day of August and we haven't seen anything above 110 mph, yet.

AL, 11, 2012083118, , BEST, 0, 316N, 505W, 80, 981, HU.

Kirk really matches the best track update. Look at how unimpressive and broken its appearance is. It's weakening even more rapidly than it strengthened. Let's hope that Leslie brings us winds of at least 111 mph.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Is there an even slightest bit of chance that we will get a major this season? Maybe Leslie or Micheal can deliver.

[fasterdisaster]

I'm not convinced Kirk wasn't a major at some point yesterday/last night.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Notice how the low level clouds of Hurricane Kirk get pulled into Leslie's circulation

[hurricanes1234]

Is there an even slightest bit of chance that we will get a major this season? Maybe Leslie or Micheal can deliver.

This season has been impressive in terms of the number of named storms, but we've been saying that many storms would become major, in fact, I remember us saying that Ernesto would be the one to become major; we're almost onto Michael and there have been no hurricanes that surpassed 110 mph so far. So, you're technically right by asking if we would even see a single major hurricane this season, I ask this question all the time. Last year, around this time, we had one 120 mph Category 3 hurricane, Irene.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Is there an even slightest bit of chance that we will get a major this season? Maybe Leslie or Micheal can deliver.

This season has been impressive in terms of the number of named storms, but we've been saying that many storms would become major, in fact, I remember us saying that Ernesto would be the one to become major; we're almost onto Michael and there have been no hurricanes that surpassed 110 mph so far. So, you're technically right by asking if we would even see a single major hurricane this season, I ask this question all the time. Last year, around this time, we had one 120 mph Category 3 hurricane, Irene.

And last year we had 8 tropical storms form back to back, then after Irene we had Cat 4 Katia and Ophelia and Cat 3 Rina, so in my opinion Major hurricanes come in the second half of the season.

[Cyclenall]

Looks like Kirk got smashed, doesn't look anything like it did yesterday; wasn't it suppose to be entering more favorable conditions today? I don't see an eye, eyewall, banding, or organization that supports a 80 knot hurricane...looks to be 60 knots at the most assuming the winds take time to diminish. Face value 35 knots. So if this didn't make it to major status like most thought it would, now Leslie has its turn to do it, if not this season will really look horrendous in the quality department.

[hurricanes1234]

Something in my mind was just telling me that Kirk would blow all the opportunities right before becoming a major hurricane. It entered favorable conditions today, but instead, it chose to waste the opportunity. This season is producing a good number of storms, but most of them are of poor quality and weaken extremely easily. Kirk was a good storm, but towards the end, it disappointed us, simply because it achieved less than what was expected of it. It was a very impressive and fun storm to track, but closer to the end, Kirk didn't have the strength to do anything but literally fall apart unexpectedly. It is just silly that we're onto the twelfth named storm and we haven't seen any major hurricanes yet, they're mostly weak and exceedingly fragile to even the slightest change in conditions. I don't think Leslie would become major, because she will be traversing "unfavorable conditions" in less than 72 hours.

Don't get me wrong, guys, this season is a very interesting one, but the storms are not very intense and weaken unexpectedly, despite favorable conditions.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in anything here.

[Cyclenall]

Something in my mind was just telling me that Kirk would blow all the opportunities right before becoming a major hurricane. It entered favorable conditions today, but instead, it chose to waste the opportunity. This season is producing a good number of storms, but most of them are of poor quality and weaken extremely easily. Kirk was a good storm, but towards the end, it disappointed us, simply because it achieved less than what was expected of it. It was a very impressive and fun storm to track, but closer to the end, Kirk didn't have the strength to do anything but literally fall apart unexpectedly. It is just silly that we're onto the twelfth named storm and we haven't seen any major hurricanes yet, they're mostly weak and exceedingly fragile to even the slightest change in conditions. I don't think Leslie would become major, because she will be traversing "unfavorable conditions" in less than 72 hours.

Don't get me wrong, guys, this season is a very interesting one, but the storms are not very intense and weaken unexpectedly, despite favorable conditions.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in anything here.

I highly doubt Kirk would weaken this fast if it were in favorable conditions right now. Hurricanes don't choose anything, the environment dictates. I agree with the bolded points, this is like 2011 all over again and I thought for sure that would be behind us. I'm starting to doubt Leslie's ability to become a major too, to have it only get to around 75 knots in 120 hours is sad. I haven't thought of Leslie as a girl up to this point until I realized it came after Kirk! I always think of that name as a male name.

I proclaimed a garbage season in early August and it looks like that is still holding true.

[hurricanes1234]

Yeah, what's up with some of the storms this season? The Atlantic has had a history of producing only 3-4 major hurricanes on average per year, but can't any of them beat Gordon's 110 mph? Even a 115 mph storm will satisfy me. Gordon was a good storm - now it's time for a hurricane to surpass him. And that's the problem with this year. The ACE values are well below-average, at 42, especially given that twelve storms have been named already. Around this time in 2010, we already had Category 4 Hurricane Danielle churning in the Atlantic, peaking at 135 mph, and Category 4 Hurricane Earl near Puerto Rico (just a comparison, I still feel for the victims of Earl's damage).

Since August was not the peak month of activity, I am giving this year one more chance to have a major hurricane, which is the entire month of September. We are only nine (9) days away from the average peak of every season, which is on September 10, so I would think that September will be the month. If no major hurricanes form this season, it will be the first season since (I don't know when) to do so. I don't want major hurricanes to affect anybody, I would just like to see a fish storm churn and become major. Kirk looked like he was going to do it, but he suddenly began to fall apart just 6 mph away from Category 3 strength, which was shocking at first, but considering this year's pattern, I wasn't very surprised at all after.

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here.

Something in my mind was just telling me that Kirk would blow all the opportunities right before becoming a major hurricane. It entered favorable conditions today, but instead, it chose to waste the opportunity. This season is producing a good number of storms, but most of them are of poor quality and weaken extremely easily. Kirk was a good storm, but towards the end, it disappointed us, simply because it achieved less than what was expected of it. It was a very impressive and fun storm to track, but closer to the end, Kirk didn't have the strength to do anything but literally fall apart unexpectedly. It is just silly that we're onto the twelfth named storm and we haven't seen any major hurricanes yet, they're mostly weak and exceedingly fragile to even the slightest change in conditions. I don't think Leslie would become major, because she will be traversing "unfavorable conditions" in less than 72 hours.

Don't get me wrong, guys, this season is a very interesting one, but the storms are not very intense and weaken unexpectedly, despite favorable conditions.

Please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong in anything here.

I highly doubt Kirk would weaken this fast if it were in favorable conditions right now. Hurricanes don't choose anything, the environment dictates. I agree with the bolded points, this is like 2011 all over again and I thought for sure that would be behind us. I'm starting to doubt Leslie's ability to become a major too, to have it only get to around 75 knots in 120 hours is sad. I haven't thought of Leslie as a girl up to this point until I realized it came after Kirk! I always think of that name as a male name.

I proclaimed a garbage season in early August and it looks like that is still holding true.

[cycloneye]

It has been downgraded to Tropical Storm.

[Florida1118]

Yeah, what's up with some of the storms this season? The Atlantic has had a history of producing only 3-4 major hurricanes on average per year, but can't any of them beat Gordon's 110 mph? Even a 115 mph storm will satisfy me. Gordon was a good storm - now it's time for a hurricane to surpass him. And that's the problem with this year. The ACE values are well below-average, at 42, especially given that twelve storms have been named already. Around this time in 2010, we already had Category 4 Hurricane Danielle churning in the Atlantic, peaking at 135 mph, and Category 4 Hurricane Earl near Puerto Rico (just a comparison, I still feel for the victims of Earl's damage).

Since August was not the peak month of activity, I am giving this year one more chance to have a major hurricane, which is the entire month of September. We are only nine (9) days away from the average peak of every season, which is on September 10, so I would think that September will be the month. If no major hurricanes form this season, it will be the first season since (I don't know when) to do so. I don't want major hurricanes to affect anybody, I would just like to see a fish storm churn and become major. Kirk looked like he was going to do it, but he suddenly began to fall apart just 6 mph away from Category 3 strength, which was shocking at first, but considering this year's pattern, I wasn't very surprised at all after.

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE AUGUST IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

From the August Monthly Summary. Seriously, we have had 5 hurricanes; 2 slightly shy of being Majors. September, October, and November still are yet to come. We are at 12/5/0 with an ACE 50% above average for this time of year. Just because we haven't had Majors raging through the basin like 2005, doesn't mean this season is a dud. Be patient.

[HurricaneRyan]

I'm betting Kirk was a major that day it looked really good. If it had been much closer to land it probably would have been a major hurricane officially. But it'll probably get the info in reanalysis.

[hurricanes1234]

Hey, check out the other posts in this forum and other forums and you'll see what I mean. IT'S ALL OVER. I am not the only one. Yes, I understand what you're trying to say about being patient, but we've given this year enough chances already. Have you ever realized that every time we say,"This is going to be the one! This is going to be our first major hurricane!" that it never happens? We have been saying this since Ernesto formed in the Atlantic. I am not saying that we won't have any majors, I am just saying that we're overestimating the strength of these storms - I don't know about you - but we're tired of hearing,"This is a strongly sheared cyclone" or "The LLC remains detached from the storm" or things like,"The storm isn't vertically stacked". Yes, I agree that September has just begun, but look at the ACE values of the whole season so far. The ACE is at or just over 42 - that's the amount you'll get in one long-lived Category 4 or 5 (long-lived, as in ten days or more) and this value is for the whole season so far. I strongly believe that September WILL be the month, but we've had a lot of weak storms with little or no endurance and they have all been short-lived, contributing to the below-average ACE for the twelfth named storm. Yes, the NUMBER of named storms is well above-average for this time of year, but that's only half of what it takes for a season to be active. For a season to be declared as active in the end, the storms must be able to achieve and maintain a high intensity, which is what we haven't seen so far this year. Otherwise, I strongly agree with what you said about patience, and I do admit that I lose it sometimes.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yeah, what's up with some of the storms this season? The Atlantic has had a history of producing only 3-4 major hurricanes on average per year, but can't any of them beat Gordon's 110 mph? Even a 115 mph storm will satisfy me. Gordon was a good storm - now it's time for a hurricane to surpass him. And that's the problem with this year. The ACE values are well below-average, at 42, especially given that twelve storms have been named already. Around this time in 2010, we already had Category 4 Hurricane Danielle churning in the Atlantic, peaking at 135 mph, and Category 4 Hurricane Earl near Puerto Rico (just a comparison, I still feel for the victims of Earl's damage).

Since August was not the peak month of activity, I am giving this year one more chance to have a major hurricane, which is the entire month of September. We are only nine (9) days away from the average peak of every season, which is on September 10, so I would think that September will be the month. If no major hurricanes form this season, it will be the first season since (I don't know when) to do so. I don't want major hurricanes to affect anybody, I would just like to see a fish storm churn and become major. Kirk looked like he was going to do it, but he suddenly began to fall apart just 6 mph away from Category 3 strength, which was shocking at first, but considering this year's pattern, I wasn't very surprised at all after.

Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong in anything here.

IN TERMS OF ACCUMULATED CYCLONE ENERGY...WHICH MEASURES THE COMBINED
STRENGTH AND DURATION OF TROPICAL STORMS AND HURRICANES...TROPICAL
CYCLONE ACTIVITY SO FAR THIS YEAR IS ABOUT 50 PERCENT ABOVE THE
1981-2010 AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE AUGUST IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN.

From the August Monthly Summary. Seriously, we have had 5 hurricanes; 2 slightly shy of being Majors. September, October, and November still are yet to come. We are at 12/5/0 with an ACE 50% above average for this time of year. Just because we haven't had Majors raging through the basin like 2005, doesn't mean this season is a dud. Be patient.

[Hurricane_Luis]

This is what kirk looked like on August 30th 13:15 UTC

This is the latest image, look what's happened to him.

[Yellow Evan]

Yeah, say goodbye to Kirk in a day or two. I thought it was going to be a major, but it did not become one.

[hurricanes1234]

Yeah, say goodbye to Kirk in a day or two. I thought it was going to be a major, but it did not become one.

You're right...still no major storms yet. Closest was Gordon which was 1 mph away from achieving major hurricane status. I would say goodbye to Kirk all now - towards the end, he became yet another underachiever.