ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

That is where ADT puts the center. And the weakening flag is on.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt12L.html

http://oi46.tinypic.com/2hqrrlc.jpg

I think they are a little too far northeast with the low level center. I also noticed they have the weakening flag on, Luis, but I'm not sure what they base it on and will have to go back and look at their literature. But I think they forget to turn it off sometimes.

[ozonepete]

One thing I'm a lot more sure of is that I don't see enough of that northwest turn compared to the track forecast.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Widespread very deep convection occurring right now in Leslie. For example, I don't think I've ever seen so much green on a Funktop image before in my seventeen years of online TC watching.

[08lava]

One thing I'm a lot more sure of is that I don't see enough of that northwest turn compared to the track forecast.

I agree but I am waiting for the 10pm (CDT) NHC update, NHC has been pretty much spot on this year..

[ozonepete]

One thing I'm a lot more sure of is that I don't see enough of that northwest turn compared to the track forecast.

I agree but I am waiting for the 10pm (CDT) NHC update, NHC has been pretty much spot on this year..

There's no one better. And if there is any change of note they will be on top of it.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
1100 PM AST FRI AUG 31 2012

...LESLIE CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 52.8W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

[HurrMark]

I'm surprised the latitude is that far north...I would peg it at 17.0 or maybe a little below it...there is no convection at that point. Definitely being sheared from the north.

[ozonepete]

It's great for the islands that the NHC doesn't see enough westward movement to change the track. That's the main thing.

[cpdaman]

So long as the mlc is disjoint'd to the sw and the convection with it, this may not turn more poleward asa cat1 or 2 would, although the llc will almost surely be close to the nhc path , remember the convection will likely be sw of it (perhaps) in a way that gives ne islands some convection

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is it me or is the NHC not updating the cone and wind field?

[jaxfladude]

Prayers.....and I thought Miss "L" would be a lady and be a Out To Sea system, maybe not. maybe still will.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
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[brunota2003]

Is it me or is the NHC not updating the cone and wind field?

Not just you...mine still show 5 pm. Maybe they forgot to add them to the list to send to the servers.

[ozonepete]

Is it me or is the NHC not updating the cone and wind field?

Not just you...mine still show 5 pm. Maybe they forgot to add them to the list to send to the servers.

Odd. They still haven't updated those graphics as of 11:30PM EDT. Does anyone see them updated?

[hurricanes1234]

Looks very good as of 3:15 UTC. Very cold cloudtops and an impressive outflow going on there.

[SFLcane]

11pm Leslie NHC cone via wunderground.

[floridasun78]

i call them to update their cone

[floridasun78]

new cone coming up few min on nhc spoke to them their been notice

[ozonepete]

new cone coming up few min on nhc spoke to them their been notice

Glad you have pull! Thanks.

[floridasun78]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... e#contents their 11pm cone

[Cyclenall]

It's great for the islands that the NHC doesn't see enough westward movement to change the track. That's the main thing.

I never thought Leslie would get that far west, wxmann57 said there was nothing to keep it near there. But there is one thing I wonder:

So long as the mlc is disjoint'd to the sw and the convection with it, this may not turn more poleward asa cat1 or 2 would, although the llc will almost surely be close to the nhc path , remember the convection will likely be sw of it (perhaps) in a way that gives ne islands some convection

Could the northerly shear intensify and keep all the convection to the south, therefore keeping it below CAT2 strength and causing center relocations? If that happens, it could take a much more southern route.

Is it me or is the NHC not updating the cone and wind field?

Its not just you, I was going to ask the same thing on here. Its very rare for the track cone not to be updated like this on the main page. Its over 1 hour and 10 minutes since the package came out.

i call them to update their cone

You have their phone number?