Does anyone think we'll have a Category 5 cane this year

[vbhoutex]

Not likely, but you never know.

Especially after what happened with Ernesto and Isaac. We can't even get a major over open water; much less at landfall.

What happened with both of these is indicative of a problem at the lower levels that prevents a good core from forming. I'm not sure what it is, but it was present in both storms and probably will be in any others that form. Without a good solid core you will not reach CAT5. It is not likely we will see a CAT5 this season imo.

[Ntxw]

Cat 5's are rare. We got spoiled (or cursed in some cases) between 03-07, they came in bunches. This season doesn't seem to support RI, mostly slow development which isn't something you'd see in a category 5 environment.

[cycloneye]

Dont forget that October can produce very strong ones and past history shows that,but I think even if that month has one it wont be a 5.

[HurricaneBill]

Since 1950, the longest the Atlantic went without a Category 5 hurricane was 8 years. Between 1980 (Allen) and 1988 (Gilbert).

[abajan]

Cat 5's are rare. We got spoiled (or cursed in some cases) between 03-07, they came in bunches. This season doesn't seem to support RI, mostly slow development which isn't something you'd see in a category 5 environment.

I'm fairly certain I read somewhere that on average only one Cat 5 forms per decade. They are indeed quite rare. It's just that the hyperactive hurricane seasons of late would make one think that they occur more frequently.

[HurricaneBill]

They are indeed quite rare. It's just that the hyperactive hurricane seasons of late would make one think that they occur more frequently.

They're rare but not that rare. Each decade sees a handful of Category 5s.

(I know some of these will probably be downgraded in reanalysis. It's also possible a few storms might get upgraded to Category 5 as well.)

Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1950:

1950: Hurricane Dog 160KT
1951: Hurricane Easy 140KT
1955: Hurricane Janet 150KT
1958: Hurricane Cleo 140KT

1960: Hurricane Donna 140KT
1960: Hurricane Ethel 140KT
1961: Hurricane Carla 150KT
1961: Hurricane Hattie 140KT
1967: Hurricane Beulah 140KT
1969: Hurricane Camille 165KT

1971: Hurricane Edith 140KT
1977: Hurricane Anita 150KT
1979: Hurricane David 150KT

1980: Hurricane Allen 165KT
1988: Hurricane Gilbert 160KT
1989: Hurricane Hugo 140KT

1992: Hurricane Andrew 150KT
1998: Hurricane Mitch 155KT

2003: Hurricane Isabel 145KT
2004: Hurricane Ivan 145KT
2005: Hurricane Emily 140KT
2005: Hurricane Katrina 150KT
2005: Hurricane Rita 155KT
2005: Hurricane Wilma 160KT
2007: Hurricane Dean 150KT
2007: Hurricane Felix 150KT

[somethingfunny]

They are indeed quite rare. It's just that the hyperactive hurricane seasons of late would make one think that they occur more frequently.

They're rare but not that rare. Each decade sees a handful of Category 5s.

(I know some of these will probably be downgraded in reanalysis. It's also possible a few storms might get upgraded to Category 5 as well.)

Category 5 hurricanes in the Atlantic since 1950:

1950: Hurricane Dog 160KT
1951: Hurricane Easy 140KT
1955: Hurricane Janet 150KT
1958: Hurricane Cleo 140KT

1960: Hurricane Donna 140KT
1960: Hurricane Ethel 140KT
1961: Hurricane Carla 150KT
1961: Hurricane Hattie 140KT
1967: Hurricane Beulah 140KT
1969: Hurricane Camille 165KT

1971: Hurricane Edith 140KT
1977: Hurricane Anita 150KT
1979: Hurricane David 150KT

1980: Hurricane Allen 165KT
1988: Hurricane Gilbert 160KT
1989: Hurricane Hugo 140KT

1992: Hurricane Andrew 150KT
1998: Hurricane Mitch 155KT

2003: Hurricane Isabel 145KT
2004: Hurricane Ivan 145KT
2005: Hurricane Emily 140KT
2005: Hurricane Katrina 150KT
2005: Hurricane Rita 155KT
2005: Hurricane Wilma 160KT
2007: Hurricane Dean 150KT
2007: Hurricane Felix 150KT

If you've ever wondered why every Cat5 storm in the Atlantic has eventually hit land except for Hurricanes Dog, Easy, and Cleo - it's because every single one of those Cat5s was confirmed by recon. They usually don't send recon planes into storms that don't threaten land, except for Dog, Easy, and Cleo - which were during the testing phase of reconnaissance flights in the 1950s when just about every storm got a recon flight.

It's possible that we've had more Cat5 fish (Igor comes to mind as a recent one) but without recon you really won't know unless the Dvorak rating is absolutely off the charts like it usually is in Pacific Ocean Cat5s.

[Cyclenall]

If you've ever wondered why every Cat5 storm in the Atlantic has eventually hit land except for Hurricanes Dog, Easy, and Cleo - it's because every single one of those Cat5s was confirmed by recon. They usually don't send recon planes into storms that don't threaten land, except for Dog, Easy, and Cleo - which were during the testing phase of reconnaissance flights in the 1950s when just about every storm got a recon flight.

It's possible that we've had more Cat5 fish (Igor comes to mind as a recent one) but without recon you really won't know unless the Dvorak rating is absolutely off the charts like it usually is in Pacific Ocean Cat5s.

Hurricane Igor wasn't a fish, it hit Newfoundland Canada as a hurricane.

I didn't remember Cleo and Easy but Cleo is listed as having a 948 mb pressure which seems too high for 140 knots (recon didn't sample the highest winds according to Wiki), pretty tiny hurricane to achive that. That same year in 1958 a major hurricane named Ella had a pressure of 1009 mb....

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Worst Case Scenario for a Cat 5 this year...if conditions improve, this would be a horrible east coast storm considering how warm the water is up north.

[rainstorm]

im going out on a limb and saying the streak of years without a major landfall will continue.

[hurricanes1234]

Worst Case Scenario for a Cat 5 this year...if conditions improve, this would be a horrible east coast storm considering how warm the water is up north.

There are around 50-70 knots of shear around the East Coast, there's no way a tropical cyclone, whether a 200 mph Category 5, or a 30 mph tropical depression could survive that. It is crazy how shear is taking over the entire Atlantic Ocean.

Not in any way an official forecast.

[TheStormExpert]

I think the chances of a Cat. 5 hurricane this year are very slim to none due to the somewhat unfavorable conditions in the main development regions. We have even struggled to get a major so far this year up till Michael which was only a weak Cat. 3 with winds of 115mph for only half a day.