ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MJS1]

What is ACE?

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

[Caribwxgirl]

What is ACE?

Accumulated Cyclone Energy

Gracias

[Airboy]

Can't see much movement in the sat pictures last couple of hours, just a slow NW movement maybe, but blowing up good.

[wxman57]

Leslie is actually tracking north of the initial forecast on Thursday by nearly a degree. Well on track to miss the islands. However, it may not miss Newfoundland in 10 days or so.

[rainstorm]

yea, i hope it doesnt stall and mess things up for future storms.

[wxman57]

Oh, I think Leslie is going to stall for a few days SE of Bermuda. Will probably make a loop. I guarantee 100% that September will have less storms than August. Maybe about 4.

[kungfut]

hi! good morning all.
Can someone please explain to me how and why this storm is curving north, I've gone back and read the posts but could somepne please summarize for me the facts behind a turn like this

[OuterBanker]

LOL, yes I do hope Leslie does boost the ACE. Although this year's ACE will be hard to beat. It without a doubt be the lowest ACE per storm on record. What is it now? Around 30 with twelve named storms is it?

[rainstorm]

Oh, I think Leslie is going to stall for a few days SE of Bermuda. Will probably make a loop. I guarantee 100% that September will have less storms than August. Maybe about 4.

4 may be generous with leslie killing the chances for anything else. wish it would just fly north to nowhere, though im sure you are right about the stall.

[drezee]

0900z microwave showed the MLC near 16.8. I still think the LLC is near 18N though, but it is a bursting storm under shear and dry air.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[NDG]

Microwave image this morning shows that its LLC is north of the MLC.
Near 18N & 54.4W at a couple of hours ago.

[fci]

Oh, I think Leslie is going to stall for a few days SE of Bermuda. Will probably make a loop. I guarantee 100% that September will have less storms than August. Maybe about 4.

4 may be generous with leslie killing the chances for anything else. wish it would just fly north to nowhere, though im sure you are right about the stall.

Doesnt the season for Cape Verde type storms usually end around now anyway?
Now we get more home grown and Carib. activity.
I don't understand how Leslie kills everything.
Can you explain?

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track

AL, 12, 2012090112, , BEST, 0, 180N, 550W, 60, 996, TS

[hurricanes1234]

This could be a hurricane all now. Hopefully, Leslie doesn't become so enormous that it halts intensification (like what Ernesto and Isaac did in the Caribbean Sea) because that would get me really annoyed.

WRONG. The best track shows Leslie's pressure rising by 2 mbar. I can't yet seem to understand why these storms won't intensify. I really hope that Leslie isn't an underachiever - only two storms this year have undergone rapid intensification - Gordon and for a brief period, Kirk, which is really the height of sadness - considering we're in September.

[Aric Dunn]

The center is fully exposed now and appears to be on a more wnw heading.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[Jimsot]

This could be a hurricane all now. Hopefully, Leslie doesn't become so enormous that it halts intensification (like what Ernesto and Isaac did in the Caribbean Sea) because that would get me really annoyed.

WRONG. The best track shows Leslie's pressure rising by 2 mbar. I can't yet seem to understand why these storms won't intensify. I really hope that Leslie isn't an underachiever - only two storms this year have undergone rapid intensification - Gordon and for a brief period, Kirk, which is really the height of sadness - considering we're in September.

Sounds like a 'perfect' season to me. Let them all die and let them all be fish storms.

[SouthDadeFish]

Wow! This thing has rapidly decayed this morning. Very Chris-like. (2006 Chris). LLC is clearly visible:

[rainstorm]

Oh, I think Leslie is going to stall for a few days SE of Bermuda. Will probably make a loop. I guarantee 100% that September will have less storms than August. Maybe about 4.

4 may be generous with leslie killing the chances for anything else. wish it would just fly north to nowhere, though im sure you are right about the stall.

Doesnt the season for Cape Verde type storms usually end around now anyway?
Now we get more home grown and Carib. activity.
I don't understand how Leslie kills everything.
Can you explain?

simple. if it sits and spins at say 25n 60w its a roadblock. nothing can possible move past it and it will create a massive trough that will kill anything that tried.

[cpdaman]

to me it's pretty clear she's weakening this am.

the euro show'd multiple vorts several days ago for the last 48 hours and it was dead on.

that is the death knell for hoping to get a hurricane quickly, (unstack'd). if it was stack'd last nite it would have taken off like crazy!

appears to me it is now moving more WNW as oppose to the NW it was on earlier.

[hurricanes1234]

This is the perfect opportunity for all of you who have never seen a LLC before. I mean really! As much as the ePac is quiet, when it flares up, it produces GOOD quality storms, like Daniel and Emilia. The Atlantic has been active for a long time now, but as I said, the storms are rarely ever vertically stacked and they lack most of the necessary features for a well-organized tropical cyclone, although they APPEAR to be stacked on conventional satellite imagery. Right now, Leslie is almost horizontally stacked! The circulation is fully exposed in an area with no deep convection. She better get her act together quickly, or else we will end up with another Joyce (Joyce was a sweet storm, but it couldn't get its act together quickly enough, and it dissipated ).