ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cpdaman]

where's the LLC , the high clouds are blockin my view.

[drezee]

Newest microwave still shows MLC right at 17N...



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

...LESLIE STRUGGLING AGAINST SHEAR...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 55.7W
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ENE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[cycloneye]

It looks like it wont stall as previously thought.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER IN GENERAL...SHOWING
ENOUGH RIDGING EAST OF LESLIE TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM TOTALLY
STALLING OUT AS SUGGESTED IN EARLIER MODEL CYCLES. THE NEW NHC
FORECAST IS A BIT FASTER AND LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY DUE
TO THE CENTER REPOSITIONING.

[rainstorm]

glad to hear that. move on out leslie.

[Riptide]

glad to hear that. move on out leslie.

What a disappointing setup, mabye we won't get a major hurricane out of this.

[floridasun78]

now we all wait for nw turn that suppose happen tonight

[crimi481]

Shear decreasing - seen here -WV-with the whispy look to outflow clouds. System structure expanding some as well
Think the big S.W. moving ULL -to Leslie's N.E. -may help to push her more west or wsw
The ridge axis, between that ULL and Leslie may keep buliding and aid in more westerly storm track
WV Loop;
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/flash-wv.html

Color Enhance:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sat ... type=flash

The post in this forum is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such

[hurricanes1234]

glad to hear that. move on out leslie.

What a disappointing setup, mabye we won't get a major hurricane out of this.

Exactly. Another sheared and extremely disorganized storm that I doubt will become anything, other than a tropical storm. I am even expecting dissipation by tomorrow, because these storms never seem to get their act together quickly enough to prevent them from fizzling out rapidly. Or, we may end up with a 70 mph storm for the next 36 hours and then probably a minimal hurricane for 12 hours after that. For me to know that we're just over a week away from the season's peak, with no major hurricanes yet, is just saddening. Of course, we have had twelve named storms so far this year, but where's the quality in them? None of them have been true overachievers, probably only Chris and Gordon came close to that. A true overachiever is like Daniel of this year, or Ophelia from last year, IMO, none of them from this Atlantic season so far have truly displayed that quality, which just shows how good this season is at producing, not maintaining.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

glad to hear that. move on out leslie.

What a disappointing setup, mabye we won't get a major hurricane out of this.

Exactly. Another sheared and extremely disorganized storm that I doubt will become anything, other than a tropical storm. I am even expecting dissipation by tomorrow, because these storms never seem to get their act together quickly enough to prevent them from fizzling out rapidly. Or, we may end up with a 70 mph storm for the next 36 hours and then probably a minimal hurricane for 12 hours after that. For me to know that we're just over a week away from the season's peak, with no major hurricanes yet, is just saddening. Of course, we have had twelve named storms so far this year, but where's the quality in them? None of them have been true overachievers, probably only Chris and Gordon came close to that. A true overachiever is like Daniel of this year, or Ophelia from last year, IMO, none of them from this Atlantic season so far have truly displayed that quality, which just shows how good this season is at producing, not maintaining.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Its the first of September...calm down. The NHC gives it a <1% chance of dissipating within 24hours, and a whopping 2% at the most over the next five days. Leslie might have some issues now with shear, but per the NHC it will get better.

[ROCK]

100% sure we will have less storms in Sept than August? did I hear that right?

[Aric Dunn]

thats a pretty bold statement. its one thing to say less but less than 4 ? There is no way to know that for sure.

[Hurricane Alexis]

100% sure we will have less storms in Sept than August? did I hear that right?

Well I don't think we're gonna get more storms in September than in August this year. 8 storms in one month is very high even for September.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[DukeDevil91]

Looks like Leslie's surface low is completely disassociated with with it's mid and upper level aspects, which lie to the southeast by quite a bit. Westerly shear is pretty intense right now.

[rog]

Are there any plans to send recon out or is the NHC so sure of a recurve that they don't see the need for it?

[somethingfunny]

Are there any plans to send recon out or is the NHC so sure of a recurve that they don't see the need for it?

I think the recon pilots are still catching up on sleep after Isaac.

Maybe in a few days when it reorganizes and we get a better picture of the possible threat to Bermuda...

[HurricaneAndrew92]

Three scenarios, the ones to the right are most likely.

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track down to 55kts.

AL, 12, 2012090118, , BEST, 0, 187N, 567W, 55, 998, TS

[Gustywind]

Hey Cycloneye, looks like all the Leewards included the adjacents islands and la isla del encanto... are definitively spared from Leslie . Am i right?

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Hey Cycloneye, looks like all the Leewards included the adjacents islands and la isla del encanto... are definitively spared from Leslie . Am i right?

Yes,maybe some bands arriving but we are in the clear.