ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Gustywind]

:uarrow: Hey Cycloneye, looks like all the Leewards included the adjacents islands and la isla del encanto... are definitively spared from Leslie . Am i right?

Yes,maybe some bands arriving but we are in the clear.

Good point, agree with that. That's evident that outer bands could skip our islands. Moreover, Meteo-France Guadeloupe argue that only high clouds cirrus should come tommorow and if any pretty rare showers... so that is excellent news ! Thus, The teachers and pupils of many schools could begin the after holidays nicely Monday and Tuesday . Whereas, even if Leslie is moving away, we should not let our guard down as September is full of surprises.

[rog]

Are there any plans to send recon out or is the NHC so sure of a recurve that they don't see the need for it?

I think the recon pilots are still catching up on sleep after Isaac.

Maybe in a few days when it reorganizes and we get a better picture of the possible threat to Bermuda...

Isaac certainly kept them busy.

[wxman57]

100% sure we will have less storms in Sept than August? did I hear that right?

Yep, 100% sure. We had 8 form in August. Odds of 8 forming in September are remote.

[tropicwatch]

Nice to see that Leslie taking that right turn. Maybe just a few showers for some of the islands.

[Anthysteg00]

With all due respect, isn't a remote possibility still a percentage? I am curious, is there any reason to assume September will slow down? GFS predicted no activity for a long time recently and I'm here to tell you on the NGOM that didn't pan out . Leslie is getting wrecked by shear how do the models respond to that?

[ROCK]

100% sure we will have less storms in Sept than August? did I hear that right?

Yep, 100% sure. We had 8 form in August. Odds of 8 forming in September are remote.

so you are telling me there is a chance!...

[ROCK]

Leslie is becoming very close to going to way of Chris in 2006...the LLC still racing away with the MLC almost decoupled.

[floridasun78]

let see if still move nw now as weaker system

[OuterBanker]

Interesting, there is a remote possibility that Leslie could slip under the ridge if it stays weak.

[wxman57]

With all due respect, isn't a remote possibility still a percentage? I am curious, is there any reason to assume September will slow down? GFS predicted no activity for a long time recently and I'm here to tell you on the NGOM that didn't pan out . Leslie is getting wrecked by shear how do the models respond to that?

Active MJO phase has ended. Sinking air moving into western Atlantic basin. Should be much calmer at least the first half of September:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... orca.shtml

[msbee]

:uarrow: Hey Cycloneye, looks like all the Leewards included the adjacents islands and la isla del encanto... are definitively spared from Leslie . Am i right?

Yes,maybe some bands arriving but we are in the clear.

[edurican]

The islands are SAFE! Good. Thanks for all the info guys, I'll be keeping an eye on this to see where it goes.

[Hurricane Alexis]

With all due respect, isn't a remote possibility still a percentage? I am curious, is there any reason to assume September will slow down? GFS predicted no activity for a long time recently and I'm here to tell you on the NGOM that didn't pan out . Leslie is getting wrecked by shear how do the models respond to that?

Active MJO phase has ended. Sinking air moving into western Atlantic basin. Should be much calmer at least the first half of September:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... orca.shtml

Sorry to get off topic but you're saying it could get active after the first half of september again?

[hurricanes1234]

Wow...what a disaster. Sadly, this looks really bad right now, almost as if it is in 50 knots of wind shear. I personally don't expect any further intensification in the next 48, or even 72 hours, because once shear impacts these weak storms, the effects last throughout their lives, even if the shear abates and conditions improve. Looks like we'll have another decoupled and torn up storm on our hands, sadly. Even given the extremely unstable air ahead, the pattern so far has been that the systems do not respond to the improvement, until the very last minute when there's less than 36 hours left of favorable conditions. Makes me want to cry - literally.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Yes, 1234, there is murderous shear ahead of Leslie - 30 to 40 knots of southerly shear. Can't see how it could ever survive this, unless the shear gradually abates as Leslie moves into it overnight and tomorrow, but I don't see that happening.

[brunota2003]

Visible imagery certainly paints a horrible picture of Leslie...with the LLC running away from the convection, with deep convection present only in the far SE portions. Last couple frames of AVN make it look like the convection is trying to jump NW toward the LLC, but doubt it'll make it there, at least in any substantial form.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Does Leslie being weaker affect it's track?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

glad to hear that. move on out leslie.

What a disappointing setup, mabye we won't get a major hurricane out of this.

Exactly. Another sheared and extremely disorganized storm that I doubt will become anything, other than a tropical storm. I am even expecting dissipation by tomorrow, because these storms never seem to get their act together quickly enough to prevent them from fizzling out rapidly. Or, we may end up with a 70 mph storm for the next 36 hours and then probably a minimal hurricane for 12 hours after that. For me to know that we're just over a week away from the season's peak, with no major hurricanes yet, is just saddening. Of course, we have had twelve named storms so far this year, but where's the quality in them? None of them have been true overachievers, probably only Chris and Gordon came close to that. A true overachiever is like Daniel of this year, or Ophelia from last year, IMO, none of them from this Atlantic season so far have truly displayed that quality, which just shows how good this season is at producing, not maintaining.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

If not overachieving means that we don't have any storms that do catastrophic damage over land or take massive amounts of life, then I am quite comfortable with having storms that do not overachieve. We have had way too many people this year wanting storms to be majors while at the same time seeming to not care where these majors could end up and who they could affect. A set up that does not lead to a major storm is not disappointing, it is relieving. Leslie can sit and spin SE of Bermuda until late November if it ensured we didn't have a chance of a landfalling storm the rest of the year! Sometimes in people's enthusiasm for a major storm, I wonder how old people are or if they live anywhere close to areas that could be affected.

[ozonepete]

Visible imagery certainly paints a horrible picture of Leslie...with the LLC running away from the convection, with deep convection present only in the far SE portions. Last couple frames of AVN make it look like the convection is trying to jump NW toward the LLC, but doubt it'll make it there, at least in any substantial form.

I suspect that it will enter a small area soon where the shear switches from northerly to southerly and so the convection could get over the center for a few hours and it will briefly look good again. But even if that does happen, it should only last for a few hours before it moves into that nasty southerly shear - then the LLC will be on the south side and all of the convection will be blown to the north. So we shouldn't get fooled if it briefly looks great overnight.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

Does Leslie being weaker affect it's track?

Most of the models take that into account. A weaker storm is much more shallow: the thunderstorms at the core do not rise very high into the atmosphere so it is steered by lower level winds rather than mid to upper level winds. In this case the lower level winds are the easterly trade winds, but as it also moving a little northerly as well, the low level winds there are more east-southeasterly, so the weak LLC is getting steered more to the west-northwest now. The NHC, of course, always takes all of this into account as well, especially if they feel the models are not picking up on it enough. That is why you should always read the NHC discussion that comes out at 5 and 11, AM and PM, each day. They always explain their reasoning for steering and it is very enlightening.