ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[somethingfunny]

BEST TRACK: AL99, 288N 366W, 20kts, 1015mb, DB INVEST

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1075 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hurricane Alexis]

No model support at all.

[somethingfunny]

[Hurricane Alexis]

It will most likely move around the ridge or get picked up by a trough.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[somethingfunny]

It hasn't been easy to find on the global model runs but it looks like they do initialize a weak low pressure that moves southwest beneath the ridge that's south of Kirk. Eventually, the next trough picks it up. Maybe the globals will do more with it now that it's been pegged as an Invest, but I don't see a whole lot developing from this area.

This area actually had a much stronger representation on the models a few days ago if I recall correctly, when the globals didn't notice tiny little Kirk off to the west.

[somethingfunny]

[cycloneye]

Down to 10%.

A SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS PRODUCING AN
AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1125 MILES
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS
SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR...AND THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[Hurricane_Luis]

It dose have an llcc and it might be trying to get a bit better organised

[ROCK]

interesting, maybe this is one where the ULL drills down to the surface....I havent seen one do that in a long time....

[rainstorm]

might be the strongest of the season, lol

[Riptide]

Pretty dumb, why would you invest this; even if it was a transitioning ULL; considering the time constraints and such.

[brunota2003]

They invest systems so that they can get much more analysis on them. Otherwise, certain models wouldn't run, etc.

[hurricanes1234]

might be the strongest of the season, lol

True, true. So what are we expecting, a 200 mph Category 5?

[Hurricane_Luis]

might be the strongest of the season, lol

True, true. So what are we expecting, a 200 mph Category 5?

haha i dont reckon its exposed.

[somethingfunny]

How can you say it's pathetic? It has a circulation, which many invests never achieve.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track

AL, 99, 2012090300, , BEST, 0, 258N, 407W, 25, 1015, DB

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/inves ... 012.invest

[bonjourno]

Latest GFS and UKMET picked up on it; image in the model thread.
Meanwhile, latest loop:


Looks like a lot of moisture streaming down from Kirk towards Leslie in its path.

[cycloneye]

Hey folks,look at this tiny tight circulation that 99L has that ASCAT caught all of it.

[CrazyC83]

It looks closed to me - just needs some more convection.

[Extratropical94]

Up to 30%


1. A SMALL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ABOUT 1175 MILES NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE...SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AT 10 MPH.